Mental health among parents and their children with eczema in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Med J 2024;30:Epub 3 Oct 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Mental health among parents and their children with eczema in Hong Kong
PH Lam, MSSc, GMBPsS1; KL Hon, MB, BS, MD1,2; Steven Loo, MB, ChB, FRCP2; CK Li, MB, BS, MD1,3; Patrick Ip, MB, BS, FRCPCH4; Mark J Koh, MB, BS, MRCPCH5; Celia HY Chan, PhD, RSW6
1 Department of Paediatrics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Hong Kong Institute of Integrative Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Hong Kong Hub of Paediatric Excellence, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Dermatology Service, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, SingHealth Group, Singapore
6 Department of Social Work, Melbourne School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Australia
 
Corresponding author: Dr KL Hon (ehon@hotmail.com)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: This cross-sectional survey research investigated mental health symptoms and quality of life among Chinese parents and their children with eczema at a paediatric dermatology clinic in Hong Kong from November 2018 to October 2020.
 
Methods: Health-related quality of life, eczema severity, and mental health among children with eczema, as well as their parents’ mental health, were studied using the Children’s Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI), Infants’ Dermatitis Quality of Life Index (IDQOL), Nottingham Eczema Severity Score (NESS), Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM), and the Chinese version of the 21-item Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales (DASS-21).
 
Results: In total, 432 children and 380 parents were recruited. Eczema severity (NESS and POEM) and health-related quality of life (CDLQI) were significantly positively associated with parental and child depression, anxiety, and stress levels according to the DASS-21, regardless of sex (children: r=0.28- 0.72, P<0.001 to 0.007; parents: r=0.20-0.52, P<0.001 to 0.034). Maternal depression was marginally positively associated with increased anxiety in boys with eczema (r=0.311; P=0.045). Younger parents had higher risk of developing more anxiety and stress compared with the older parents (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=-0.342, P=0.014 and aOR=-0.395, P=0.019, respectively). Depression level of parents with primary to secondary education was 58% higher than their counterparts with post-secondary education or above (aOR=-1.579; P=0.007).
 
Conclusion: Depression, anxiety, and stress among children with eczema and their parents were associated with eczema severity and impaired quality of life in those children. These findings regarding impaired mental health in children with eczema and their parents highlight the need to include mental well-being and psychosocial outcomes in future studies and clinical practice.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • Depression, anxiety, and stress among children with eczema and their parents were associated with eczema severity and impaired quality of life in those children.
  • Higher parental education level and advanced parental age could be the protective factors in dealing with emotional distress among parents whose children had eczema.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • The findings regarding impaired mental health in children with eczema and their parents highlight the need to include mental well-being and psychosocial outcomes in future studies and clinical practice.
 
 
Introduction
Atopic eczema (AE) is a common childhood skin disease associated with pruritus and sleep disturbance.1 2 3 4 5 Childhood AE can substantially influence quality of life (QOL) among affected children and their parents. The extent of QOL impairment is often correlated with eczema severity, skin dehydration, and staphylococcal infection.6 Additionally, many affected children and their parents develop depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms.1 These mental health issues are correlated with disease severity, impaired QOL, and therapeutic non-compliance.1 7 8 A study using the 42-item Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales (DASS-42) found that depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms were present in 21%, 33%, and 23% of Hong Kong adolescent patients with AE, respectively.1 These psychological symptoms were significantly correlated with poor QOL.1 A study of Japanese children showed eczema severity was associated with mental health.9 Furthermore, a retrospective, cross-sectional population-based survey of childhood eczema in the United States revealed that increased eczema severity was associated with a higher risk of mental disorders.10 School-aged children with moderate and severe AE have a higher risk of psychosocial problems that can influence their quality of sleep and cognitive development.11 Emotion, attention, interpersonal relationships, and conduct can also be affected by AE.10 12 Moreover, parents are often unaware of potential psychosocial health issues in their children with eczema.13 Most affected children and their parents do not receive appropriate psychological help and support; they also exhibit low symptom recognition. The impacts of childhood eczema on the parent-child dyad have not been extensively studied in terms of healthrelated quality of life (HRQOL), eczema severity, or mental health status.14
 
This study was performed to examine associations between mental health issues and disease severity in children or adolescents with AE and their parents using the concise validated 21-item Chinese version of DASS-42 (DASS-21).1 15 16 17
 
Methods
Study design and participant recruitment
This 2-year cross-sectional survey was conducted between November 2018 and October 2020. Participants with a diagnosis of AE and their parents were recruited at the paediatric dermatology clinic of a university-affiliated hospital in Hong Kong. Eczema was clinically diagnosed in accordance with the United Kingdom Working Party’s Diagnostic Criteria for Atopic Dermatitis.18 Participants and their parents received information about the study including objectives, procedures, voluntary participation, and right of withdrawal. Non-Chinese participants and individuals aged <11 years who were not accompanied by a parent during recruitment were excluded from the study.
 
The questionnaires were self-administered and supervised by research staff. Parents would help complete the Children’s Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI), Infants’ Dermatitis Quality of Life Index (IDQOL), Nottingham Eczema Severity Score (NESS), and Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) for their younger children. The DASS-21 was individually administered to all parents and to children aged >11 years.
 
Clinical assessment of eczema
The validated Chinese version of the three-item NESS, completed by children aged >11 years or the parents of children aged ≤11 years, was used to determine eczema severity in participating children.19 20 The presence of eczema and number of nights affected by skin itchiness each week in the past 12 months were rated from 1 to 5. A higher score indicated greater eczema severity. Additionally, areas of skin with eczematous lesions (eg, rash, lichenified skin, and/or bleeding) were recorded. Scores on the NESS were categorised as mild (3 to 8), moderate (9 to 11), and severe (12 to 15) eczema. Subjective measurements were determined using the validated seven-item Chinese translation of the POEM, which was also completed by children aged >11 years or the parents of children aged ≤11 years.21 22 Each item was scored from 0 to 4, with a maximum aggregate score of 28. A higher score indicated greater eczema severity in the past week (ranges of 0-2, 3-7, 8-16, 17-24, and 25-28 correspond to clear, mild, moderate, severe, and very severe levels of eczema, respectively).
 
Assessment of health-related quality of life
Health-related QOL was evaluated using the Chinese version of the 10-item CDLQI23 and the 10-item IDQOL.24 The CDLQI was completed by children aged ≥4 years with guidance from parents, whereas the IDQOL was completed by parents of children aged <4 years. Each item on the two scales was scored from 0 to 3, with a maximum aggregate score of 30. A higher score indicated greater eczema-related HRQOL impairment in the past week (CDLQI ranges of 0-1, 2-6, 7-12, 13-18, and 19-30 correspond to no, small, moderate, very large, and extremely large effects on HRQOL, respectively; these ranges for IDQOL are 0-1, 2-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21-30, respectively).
 
Assessment of mental health
Mental health was assessed by measuring depression, anxiety, and stress in children with eczema and their parents using the validated Chinese version of the DASS-21. This scale has been used to examine symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress among individuals with dermatitis or eczema.1 17 The DASS-21 was individually administered to all parents and to children aged >11 years. The DASS-21 composite score can be divided into the DASS Depression, DASS Anxiety, and DASS Stress domains. The total score for each domain ranges from 0 to 42.25 A higher score indicates greater emotional distress in that domain (DASS Depression ranges of 0-9, 10-13, 14-20, 21-27, and ≥28 correspond to normal, mild, moderate, severe, and extremely severe levels, respectively; these ranges for DASS Anxiety are 0-7, 8-9, 10-14, 15-19, and ≥20, whereas they are 0-14, 15-18, 19-25, 26-33, and ≥34 for DASS Stress).
 
Statistical analysis
Clinical data were de-identified and analysed using SPSS (Windows version 25.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], United States). Frequency distributions were used to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of participants. Continuous variables with normal distributions were expressed as means ± standard deviations (corrected to 1 decimal place). Nominal and ordinal variables were expressed in numbers with percentage (corrected to 1 decimal place). Independent samples t tests were used to explore sex differences regarding age, education level, disease severity, QOL, and emotional distress in parents and children. Pearson correlation analysis was utilised to examine associations among mental health, eczema severity, and HRQOL in parents and children of both sexes. Multiple linear regression was performed to adjust for variations in parental and child DASS scores and HRQOL according to demographic and clinical variables. P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.
 
Results
Demographic information, disease state, and mental well-being among children and parents
Among 380 parents (mean age=41.13±6.52 years), 49 were fathers (mean age=42.50±7.49 years) and 331 were mothers (mean age=40.95±6.36 years). Parents’ education levels were primary to secondary (n=124, 13 males), post-secondary (n=26, 1 male), and undergraduate or above (n=81, 14 males) [Table 1]. Parents reported moderate to extremely severe depression (n=58, 2 males), moderate to extremely severe anxiety (n=101, 5 males), and moderate to extremely severe stress (n=90, 6 males). Parents with a higher education level had lower levels of depression, anxiety, and stress (Fig 1). Compared with fathers, mothers generally had higher overall DASS-21 depression, anxiety, and stress scores (P<0.001-0.005) [Table 1].
 

Table 1. Parents’ demographic and socio-economic characteristics (n=380)
 

Figure 1. Trends of parental depression, anxiety, and stress across education levels
 
Among 432 children (mean age=9.61±5.41 years), 218 were boys (mean age=9.15±5.44 years) and 214 were girls (mean age=10.06±5.35 years). Most children had moderate to severe/very severe disease according to the POEM (n=290) and NESS (n=291). Over half of the children displayed a moderate to extremely large impact on QOL in the CDLQI (n=171, 50.4%) and IDQOL (n=56, 62.9%). Small numbers of children had moderate to extremely severe depression (n=36), anxiety (n=43), and stress (n=30). There were no significant sex differences in disease severity, HRQOL, or emotional distress in the DASS (Table 2).
 

Table 2. Children’s demographic and clinical characteristics (n=432)
 
Eczema severity, health-related quality of life, and mental health among children
Disease severity in terms of NESS, POEM, and HRQOL (ie, CDLQI and IDQOL) was generally worse among infants than among older children (Fig 2). Thus, eczema severity and QOL generally appeared to improve with age. Correlation analysis demonstrated that depression, anxiety, and stress levels were significantly associated with NESS, POEM, and CDLQI, regardless of sex (Table 3).
 

Figure 2. Trend analysis of eczema severity and quality of life across child age subgroups. (a) Nottingham Eczema Severity Score. (b) Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure score. (c) Health-related quality of life score (scores of the Children’s Dermatology Life Quality Index and the Infants’ Dermatitis Quality of Life Index)
 

Table 3. Correlations among parent-child mental health, eczema severity, and health-related quality of life
 
Eczema severity, health-related quality of life, and mental health among parents
Correlation analysis revealed that eczema severity (NESS and POEM) and HRQOL (CDLQI) were associated with depression, anxiety, and stress levels (DASS-21) among children and parents, regardless of sex (Table 3 and Fig 3). Moreover, depression, anxiety, and stress levels in mothers were significantly correlated with NESS, POEM, IDQOL, and CDLQI. Paternal anxiety and stress levels were correlated with NESS, POEM, and CDLQI (P<0.001 to 0.034). However, paternal depression was only correlated with POEM (P=0.014) [Table 3].
 

Figure 3. Parental and child mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress domains of the 21-item Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales) and eczema severity in (a) Nottingham Eczema Severity Score and (b) Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure
 
Mental health among children and parents
Maternal depression showed a marginal association with higher anxiety levels in boys with eczema (n=42, r=0.311; P=0.045) [Table 3]. However, considering the small number of pairs, no clinical or statistical inferences should be made regarding sex differences in mental health among children and parents. Additionally, there were no statistically significant associations between the mental health of children and parents concerning depression, anxiety, and stress levels in the DASS-21 (Table 3). Regression analysis showed that the child’s HRQOL and parental age mostly explained variation in parental anxiety and stress, whereas parental education level explained variation in parental depression (Table 4). Younger parents had higher risk of developing more anxiety and stress compared with the older parents. Depression level of parents with primary to secondary education was 58% higher than their counterparts with post-secondary education or above. Conversely, the child’s eczema severity and HRQOL mostly explained the child’s emotional distress. Eczema severity and parental emotional distress significantly affected HRQOL in children of all ages (Table 4).
 

Table 4. Regression model of Depressive, Anxiety, and Stress Scales scores of parents and children by demographic information, eczema severity, and health-related quality of life
 
There was no psychological or physiological discomfort resulted from administration of the surveys.
 
Discussion
Psychological symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress were prevalent among children with AE and their parents. Our findings indicate associations between the mental health of children and parents and the eczema severity in those children. Increased eczema severity in children and adolescents led to greater emotional distress in parents and children, regardless of sex. Similarly, psychological symptoms in children and their parents were negatively correlated with the child’s eczema severity (NESS and POEM) and HRQOL impairment (CDLQI or IDQOL), regardless of sex. These strong correlations suggest that psychological symptoms, eczema severity, and impact on QOL have mutually detrimental effects. The DASS depression, anxiety, and stress scores were generally higher among mothers than among fathers, suggesting that mothers (the primary caregivers for children with eczema) were more strongly affected. The present study showed that eczema severity can adversely affect emotions and QOL among parents and children, highlighting the need for further exploration of biopsychosocial interactions among children and adolescents with eczema. Children with severe disease reportedly have more problems with depression and internalising behaviour.26 Behavioural issues can lead to adverse social interactions with peers, further reducing self-esteem and HRQOL. Therefore, interactions among parental perception of the child’s disease severity, the child’s treatment adherence, the child’s social influence by peers, and the child’s school environment should be considered when clinicians make comprehensive decisions about holistic treatments.
 
Our results using the DASS-21 are consistent with findings in previous studies1 27 that used the more comprehensive DASS-42. As in previous studies,1 27 we found that caregivers were especially likely to experience anxiety related to care provision in the home.28 29 In the present study, maternal depression was associated with a higher anxiety level, particularly in relation to boys with eczema. Accordingly, the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema initiative recommends documentation of disease severity and QOL impairment in eczema cases.25 30 However, there have been few international initiatives and clinical trials regarding the psychological symptoms of caregivers and patients, particularly in the context of childhood eczema. Therefore, we suggest that clinicians should consider these important measurable domains in terms of therapeutic interventions and psychological support. Childhood eczema treatments mainly focus on pharmacological control of physical symptoms, but they often completely neglect the psychological symptoms of affected children and their parents. A more holistic treatment approach is needed for this potentially devastating common childhood disorder. Given the increasing numbers of proposed assessment tools, we advocate a holistic and comprehensive approach for eczema management that considers children and their families. This treatment tool should use a composite score to continuously evaluate disease severity (in objective and subjective manners), QOL impairment, psychological symptoms, and miscellaneous disease surrogates in affected children and their parents.1 16 21 26
 
Strengths and limitations
A strength of this study was that compared with the DASS-42, the DASS-21 demonstrated better performance with 50% fewer questions and a shorter completion time. Findings from the DASS-21, but not the DASS-42, were correlated with disease severity as measured by the NESS and POEM.1 These discrepancies could have arisen because the sample size in the present study (using the DASS-21) was threefold greater than the sample size in the previous DASS-42 study.1 In the present study, the DASS-21, especially in child and mother, was moderately to strongly correlated with the CDLQI, IDQOL, NESS, and POEM. Thus, the DASS-21 can effectively represent the degree of emotional distress among parents and children or adolescents with eczema. This questionnaire is available in different languages, potentially allowing it to be used for assessment of patients with other ethnicities. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use the DASS-21 to assess the mental health of parents and children with eczema in a paediatric setting. This study revealed the presence of childhood eczema-related depression, anxiety, and stress in affected children and their parents.
 
This study had a few limitations including its relatively small sample size, especially concerning father-child pairs. A greater proportion of mothers participated in this study, which is expected because mothers are the main caregivers for children with eczema; they typically accompany their children during medical consultations. Considering that paediatric dermatological clinics also cater adolescent patients aged ≥16 years, a few participants aged 16 to 19 years completed the CDLQI on their HRQOL; although these participants exceeded the suggested age range of ≤16 years, the overall results were not affected.
 
Another limitation is that the number of recruited mothers, who are normally regarded as the main child caregiver, much outweighs that of recruited fathers. In addition, compared with fathers, mothers may know their child’s health more and get anxious or depressed as the eczema severity of their child escalates over time. Thus, the difference of the role in childbearing, sample size and the understanding of child’s health may affect the findings in parental-child correlations. It should be cautious when the results regarding parental-child correlations are studied and presented. The CDLQI (n=339) is a questionnaire for children, and the IDQOL (n=89) is for infants. The different numbers of participants who completed each of these questionnaires is consistent with the CDLQI coverage of a broader age range, whereas the IDQOL is only suitable for children aged <4 years. Although maternal depression was correlated with boys with anxiety, it is important to note that statistical significance should not be used to infer that there is a sex difference between parent and child groups in terms of mental health; such an inference would constitute overgeneralisation.
 
Conclusion
Children with eczema and their parents demonstrated mental health impairment, which was correlated with disease severity. Eczema-induced anxiety, stress, and other mental health issues in affected children and their parents should be considered by healthcare professionals during comprehensive assessments for the treatment of eczema. In addition to primary eczema, possible secondary psychiatric symptoms should be monitored in children with moderate to severe eczema and their parents. Childhood eczema severity and the mental health of affected children and their parents should be simultaneously evaluated to prevent and manage secondary psychological problems.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: KL Hon.
Acquisition of data: PH Lam.
Analysis or interpretation of data: PH Lam, P Ip.
Drafting of the manuscript: PH Lam, KL Hon.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: KL Hon, S Loo, MJ Koh, CHY Chan, CK Li, P Ip.
 
Conflicts of interest
As an editor of the journal, KL Hon was not involved in the peer review process. Other authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Acknowledgement
The authors thank all children and parents who participated in this research.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
This research was approved by the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong–New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee, Hong Kong (Ref No.: CRE.2018.401). Written informed consent was obtained from participants and parents prior to the research.
 
References
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2. Leung AK, Hon KL, Robson WL. Atopic dermatitis. Adv Pediatr 2007;54:241-73. Crossref
3. Leung TN, Hon KL. Eczema therapeutics in children: what do the clinical trials say? Hong Kong Med J 2015;21:251-60. Crossref
4. Hon KL, Lam PH, Ng WG, et al. Age, sex, and disease status as determinants of skin hydration and transepidermal water loss among children with and without eczema. Hong Kong Med J 2020;26:19-26. Crossref
5. Hon KL, Wong KY, Leung TF, Chow CM, Ng PC. Comparison of skin hydration evaluation sites and correlations among skin hydration, transepidermal water loss, SCORAD index, Nottingham Eczema Severity Score, and quality of life in patients with atopic dermatitis. Am J Clin Dermatol 2008;9:45-50. Crossref
6. Holm EA, Wulf HC, Stegmann H, Jemec GB. Life quality assessment among patients with atopic eczema. Br J Dermatol 2006;154:719-25. Crossref
7. Slattery MJ, Essex MJ, Paletz EM, et al. Depression, anxiety, and dermatologic quality of life in adolescents with atopic dermatitis. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2011;128:668-71. Crossref
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9. Kuniyoshi Y, Kikuya M, Miyashita M, et al. Severity of eczema and mental health problems in Japanese schoolchildren: the ToMMo Child Health Study. Allergol Int 2018;67:481-6. Crossref
10. Wan J, Takeshita J, Shin DB, Gelfand JM. Mental health impairment among children with atopic dermatitis: a United States population-based cross-sectional study of the 2013-2017 National Health Interview Survey. J Am Acad Dermatol 2020;82:1368-75. Crossref
11. Fishbein AB, Cheng BT, Tilley CC, et al. Sleep disturbance in school-aged children with atopic dermatitis: prevalence and severity in a cross-sectional sample. J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract 2021;9:3120-9.e3. Crossref
12. Schmitt J, Apfelbacher C, Chen CM, et al. Infant-onset eczema in relation to mental health problems at age 10 years: results from a prospective birth cohort study (German Infant Nutrition Intervention plus). J Allergy Clin Immunol 2010;125:404-10. Crossref
13. Walker C, Papadopoulos L, Hussein M. Paediatric eczema and psychosocial morbidity: how does eczema interact with parents’ illness beliefs? J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol 2007;21:63-7. Crossref
14. Ali F, Vyas J, Finlay AY. Counting the burden: atopic dermatitis and health-related quality of life. Acta Derm Venereol 2020;100:adv00161. Crossref
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16. Lam PH, Hon KL, Leung KK, Leong KF, Li CK, Leung TF. Self-perceived disease control in childhood eczema. J Dermatolog Treat 2022;33:1459-64. Crossref
17. Gong X, Xie XY, Xu R, Luo YJ. Psychometric properties of the Chinese versions of DASS-21 in Chinese college students [in Chinese]. Chinese J Clin Psychol 2010;18:443-6.
18. Williams HC, Burney PG, Pembroke AC, Hay RJ. The U.K. Working Party’s Diagnostic Criteria for Atopic Dermatitis. III. Independent hospital validation. Br J Dermatol 1994;131:406-16. Crossref
19. Emerson RM, Charman CR, Williams HC. The Nottingham Eczema Severity Score: preliminary refinement of the Rajka and Langeland grading. Br J Dermatol 2000;142:288-97. Crossref
20. Hon KL, Ma KC, Wong E, Leung TF, Wong Y, Fok TF. Validation of a self-administered questionnaire in Chinese in the assessment of eczema severity. Pediatr Dermatol 2003;20:465-9. Crossref
21. Hon KL, Kung JS, Tsang KY, Yu JW, Cheng NS, Leung TF. Do we need another symptom score for childhood eczema? J Dermatolog Treat 2018;29:510-4. Crossref
22. Gaunt DM, Metcalfe C, Ridd M. The Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure in young children: responsiveness and minimal clinically important difference. Allergy 2016;71:1620-5. Crossref
23. Salek MS, Jung S, Brincat-Ruffini LA, et al. Clinical experience and psychometric properties of the Children’s Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI), 1995-2012. Br J Dermatol 2013;169:734-59. Crossref
24. Lewis-Jones MS, Finlay AY, Dykes PJ. The Infants’ Dermatitis Quality of Life Index. Br J Dermatol 2001;144:104-10. Crossref
25. Gerbens LA, Prinsen CA, Chalmers JR, et al. Evaluation of the measurement properties of symptom measurement instruments for atopic eczema: a systematic review. Allergy 2017;72:146-63. Crossref
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Validation of diagnostic coding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in an electronic health record system in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Med J 2024;30:Epub 29 Aug 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Validation of diagnostic coding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in an electronic health record system in Hong Kong
WC Kwok, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)1; Terence CC Tam, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)1; CW Sing, PhD2; Esther WY Chan, PhD2; CL Cheung, PhD2
1 Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Dr WC Kwok (kwokwch@hku.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: Electronic health record databases can facilitate epidemiology research regarding diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a common medical condition worldwide. We aimed to assess the validity of International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) code algorithms for identifying COPD in Hong Kong’s territory-wide electronic health record system, the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS).
 
Methods: Adult patients diagnosed with COPD at all public hospitals in Hong Kong and specifically at Queen Mary Hospital from 2011 to 2020 were identified using the ICD-9 code 496 (Chronic airway obstruction, not elsewhere classified) within the CDARS. Two respiratory specialists reviewed clinical records and spirometry results to confirm the presence of COPD in a randomly selected group of cases.
 
Results: During the study period, 93 971 and 2479 patients had the diagnostic code for COPD at all public hospitals in Hong Kong and specifically at Queen Mary Hospital, respectively. Two hundred cases were randomly selected from Queen Mary Hospital for validation using medical records and spirometry results. The overall positive predictive value was 81.5% (95% confidence interval=76.1%-86.9%). We also developed an algorithm to identify COPD cases in our cohort.
 
Conclusion: This study represents the first validation of ICD-9 coding for COPD in the CDARS. Our findings demonstrated that the ICD-9 code 496 is a reliable indicator for identifying COPD cases, supporting the use of the CDARS database for further clinical research concerning COPD.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • This is the first validation study of International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) coding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Hong Kong Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS).
  • The ICD-9 code 496 demonstrated a high positive predictive value for identifying COPD cases in the CDARS.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • This study established an algorithm for identifying COPD cases in the CDARS.
  • The findings provide a basis for territory-wide analysis of COPD in Hong Kong.
 
 
Introduction
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic inflammatory lung disease characterised by airflow limitation, which causes symptoms such as difficulty breathing, productive cough, and wheezing. Smoking is the primary risk factor for COPD development.1 Patients with COPD experience gradual deterioration of lung function, with potential intermittent exacerbations.
 
Although COPD is preventable and manageable, it was ranked as the fourth leading cause of death worldwide in the 2019 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines.2 The Global Burden of Disease Study estimated that there were 3.2 million COPD-related deaths in 2015, an increase of 11.6% compared with 1990.3 The prevalence of COPD also increased by 44.2% during the same period, reaching 174.5 million cases in 2015.3 In Hong Kong, the Population Health Survey 2014/15 revealed that 0.5% (0.6% in male individuals; 0.4% in female individuals) of non-institutionalised persons aged ≥15 years had physician-diagnosed COPD.4
 
The prevalence of COPD in Hong Kong among adults aged ≥60 years is 25.9% or 12.4%, depending on the spirometric criteria used (post-bronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity [ie, FEV1/FVC ratio] <70% or lower limit of normal).5 In 2005, the crude mortality rate for COPD was 29.1 per 100 000 population, whereas the crude hospitalisation rate was 193 per 100 000 population.6 From January 2017 to December 2020, there were 78 693 admissions for COPD across all public hospitals in Hong Kong.7 8
 
Population-based or large database studies are valuable for understanding the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and burden of COPD.9 10 11 12 13 14 15 In countries/regions with electronic health record (EHR) systems, the EHR databases offer extensive information for clinical management, research, and big data analysis of various diseases, including COPD. Studies in the US and the United Kingdom have validated diagnostic codes for COPD and acute exacerbation of COPD. A study of the diagnostic code for COPD in the US showed a positive predictive value (PPV) of 91.7%, sensitivity of 71.7%, and specificity of 94.4%.16 In the United Kingdom, the diagnostic code for acute exacerbation of COPD had a PPV of 85.5% and sensitivity of 62.9%.17 Electronic health records typically contain diagnostic information, associated morbidity and mortality data, and possible longitudinal follow-up data, allowing the evaluation of COPD trends and associated health outcomes. Before research can be conducted using EHR data, the diagnostic coding must be validated. The Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS), an EHR database managed by the Hospital Authority (HA; a public healthcare service provider that manages 43 hospitals/institutions and 123 outpatient clinics18), has covered >90% of the Hong Kong population since 1993. The CDARS captures medical information including diagnoses, drug prescriptions, demographics, admissions, medical procedures, and laboratory results. Although the accuracy of diagnostic coding has been demonstrated for some conditions in Hong Kong,19 20 21 it has not been validated for COPD. In this study, we aimed to assess the validity of International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) code algorithms for identifying COPD in the CDARS.
 
Methods
This study was conducted at Queen Mary Hospital (QMH), a territory-wide tertiary and quaternary referral centre under HA for advanced medical services and respiratory diseases. All medical information regarding its patients is captured within the CDARS.
 
Firstly, all adult patients aged ≥40 years with a principal diagnosis of COPD in HA from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020 were identified through the CDARS. Then, in the ICD-9 coding validation session, it included adult patients aged ≥40 years with a principal diagnosis of COPD recorded at QMH from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020. Potential COPD cases in the CDARS were initially identified using the ICD-9 code 496 (Chronic airway obstruction, not elsewhere classified). Cases with a secondary diagnosis of ICD-9 code 493 (Asthma; indicating potential asthma-COPD overlap [ACO] or asthma) were excluded. The clinical information and spirometry results for all potential COPD cases during the study period were retrieved for validation from the CDARS. The algorithm used for case identification is depicted in Figure 1.
 

Figure 1. Algorithm for identifying chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cases in the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System
 
Among potential cases identified in the QMH cohort, 200 were randomly selected for validation. Case validation was performed by two respiratory specialists, based on the clinical information, spirometry results, physician notes, and clinical examination reports. A potential COPD case was regarded as true positive if the specialist concluded that the patient had definite COPD according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines.22 A valid case was defined as the presence of symptoms compatible with COPD, along with spirometry results demonstrating airflow limitation (ie, FEV1/FVC ratio <0.7) that could not be fully reversed by the administration of an inhaled bronchodilator. Potential cases not meeting these criteria were regarded as false positive. Patients without spirometry data were excluded from the case validation process. The flow of patient selection is illustrated in Figure 1.
 
The PPV was computed to assess the validity of COPD diagnostic codes in the CDARS, using the definition of the number of true positives (ie, cases identified by ICD-9 codes which met the above criteria) divided by the total number of true positives plus false positives (ie, cases identified by ICD-9 codes which did not meet the above criteria).
 
 
Cohen’s kappa was used to estimate inter-rater reliability and the 95% confidence interval was estimated using a binomial distribution. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (Windows 26.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], US).
 
Results
In total, 2479 potential cases were identified in QMH between 2011 and 2020. During the same period, there were 93 971 cases with a principal diagnostic code of COPD across all public hospitals in Hong Kong. There were no significant differences in age or sex between QMH cases and overall cases throughout the HA (Table 1). Of the QMH cases, 200 were randomly selected for detailed validation. The validation process showed that 163 cases were true positives, resulting in an overall PPV of 81.5% (95% confidence interval=76.1%-86.9%). Major reasons for false positives included ACO, asthma, and bronchiectasis (Table 2). Cohen’s kappa was 0.77, suggesting substantial agreement. The proposed algorithm for identifying COPD cases in the CDARS is illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Table 1. Patient characteristics in all chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cases, 2011-2020
 

Table 2. Reasons for false-positive cases (n=200)
 

Figure 2. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease validation
 
Discussion
In this validation study, the estimated overall PPV was 81.5% when ICD-9 coding was used to identify COPD cases within the CDARS, the territory-wide EHR system in Hong Kong.
 
A PubMed search using the terms ‘COPD’ AND ‘validation’ OR ‘international classification of disease codes’ did not identify any literature regarding validation of diagnostic codes for COPD in EHRs within Hong Kong. Validation of local diagnostic codes for COPD will facilitate large-scale studies in Hong Kong, which are needed considering the high local prevalence of this disease. Our study showed a PPV >70%, which is the typical validation criterion for case-finding algorithms in population-based cohort studies.23 24 The high PPV in our study may be attributable to the nature of the CDARS database, with high PPV also reported in other local validation studies involving other diseases.21 25 The CDARS database contains EHRs from all public hospitals, where diagnostic facilities and diagnostic protocols are well-established; in contrast, data from claims databases and general practitioners are expected to have lower accuracy. As such, in prior local validation studies with CDARS, they had high reported PPV of 79%25 and 100%21 for interstitial lung diseases and hip fracture, respectively. Also, COPD is a disease that is easier to be recognised by demonstrating airflow obstruction on spirometry, which contributed to the high PPV. Additionally, regular audits by the HA of diagnostic codes in patient discharge summaries to make sure the correct diagnosis were entered further enhance the accuracy of CDARS data.
 
Among the false-positive cases, ACO was the most frequent cause (Table 2). This relationship could be due to incorrect entry of COPD diagnostic codes or to patients with childhood asthma who developed COPD later in life. The lack of a separate ICD-9 diagnostic code for ACO and the absence of diagnostic criteria for this condition contribute to these challenges.26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Considering the current difficulties in accurate diagnosis of ACO, the actual PPV for COPD could be higher. Thus, our proposed algorithm excludes cases with a secondary diagnosis of asthma in the CDARS to avoid including patients with ACO. Proper education to address this miscoding issue is essential. Asthma was the second most common incorrectly coded diagnosis. This result could be related to initial misdiagnosis at presentation, such as attributing shortness of breath in a smoker to COPD, rather than asthma. Heart failure, which also presents with dyspnoea and wheezing, could be misclassified as COPD in rare instances. Bronchiectasis, pneumonia, silicosis, and interstitial lung disease can also present with chronic productive cough and dyspnoea, similar to COPD.
 
Strengths and limitations
The strengths of this study include its use of territorywide database with >11 million records, which allowed the identification of a sufficient number of cases. The methodology utilised to confirm true-positive COPD cases was both feasible and practical: the medical records and spirometry results for all cases with the COPD diagnostic code were reviewed by respiratory specialists.
 
However, this study had some limitations. First, the patient population mostly comprised adult Chinese patients, consistent with the demographics of patients with COPD in Hong Kong. This ethnicity component may limit generalisability to other populations. Second, only QMH cases were selected for validation. However, because all hospitals and clinics within the HA use a single diagnostic coding system, the diagnostic coding consistency is expected to be high. The high accuracy of ICD-9 coding within the Hong Kong CDARS has been demonstrated in other studies.20 21
 
Conclusion
This study represents the first validation of ICD-9 coding for COPD in Hong Kong. Our findings demonstrated that use of ICD-9 code 496, in conjunction with our algorithm to identify COPD, results in a PPV with sufficient reliability to support utilisation of the CDARS database for future COPD research.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: WC Kwok, CL Cheung.
Acquisition of data: WC Kwok.
Analysis or interpretation of data: WC Kwok.
Drafting of the manuscript: WC Kwok, CL Cheung.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: TCC Tam, CW Sing, EWY Chan, CL Cheung.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
The research was approved by the Institutional Review Board of The University of Hong Kong / Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster, Hong Kong (Ref No.: UW22-716). The requirement for informed consent is waived by the Board due to the retrospective nature of the research.
 
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15. Bahremand T, Etminan M, Roshan-Moniri N, De Vera MA, Tavakoli H, Sadatsafavi M. Are COPD prescription patterns aligned with guidelines? Evidence from a Canadian population-based study. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2021;16:751-9. Crossref
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End-of-life practices in Hong Kong intensive care units: results from the Ethicus-2 study

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Aug;30(4):300–9 | Epub 15 Aug 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
End-of-life practices in Hong Kong intensive care units: results from the Ethicus-2 study
Gavin Matthew Joynt, MBBCh, FHKAM (Anaesthesiology)1; Steven KH Ling, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Anaesthesiology)2; LL Chang, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Medicine)3; Polly NW Tsai, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)4; Gary KF Au, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Medicine)5; Dominic HK So, MB, BS, FHKAM (Anaesthesiology)6; FL Chow, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)7; Philip KN Lam, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)8; Alexander Avidan, MD9; Charles L Sprung, MD9; Anna Lee, MPH, PhD1; Hong Kong Ethicus-2 study Group
for the Hong Kong Ethicus-2 study group (group members are listed at the end of the article)
1 Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Intensive Care, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Department of Intensive Care, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Adult Intensive Care Unit, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Department of Intensive Care, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
6 Department of Intensive Care Unit, Princess Margaret Hospital/Yan Chai Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
7 Department of Intensive Care, Caritas Medical Centre, Hong Kong SAR, China
8 Department of Intensive Care, North District Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
9 Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Hadassah Medical Organization and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
 
Corresponding author: Prof Gavin Matthew Joynt (gavinmjoynt@cuhk.edu.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: The need for end-of-life care is common in intensive care units (ICUs). Although guidelines exist, little is known about actual end-of-life care practices in Hong Kong ICUs. The study aim was to provide a detailed description of these practices.
 
Methods: This prospective, multicentre observational sub-analysis of the Ethicus-2 study explored end-of-life practices in eight participating Hong Kong ICUs. Consecutive adult ICU patients admitted during a 6-month period with life-sustaining treatment (LST) limitation or death were included. Follow-up continued until death or 2 months from the initial decision to limit LST.
 
Results: Of 4922 screened patients, 548 (11.1%) had LST limitation (withholding or withdrawal) or died (failed cardiopulmonary resuscitation/brain death). Life-sustaining treatment limitation occurred in 455 (83.0%) patients: 353 (77.6%) had decisions to withhold LST and 102 (22.4%) had decisions to withdraw LST. Of those who died without LST limitation, 80 (86.0%) had failed cardiopulmonary resuscitation and 13 (14.0%) were declared brain dead. Discussions of LST limitation were initiated by ICU physicians in most (86.2%) cases. Shared decision-making between ICU physicians and families was the predominant model; only 6.0% of patients retained decision-making capacity. Primary medical reasons for LST limitation were unresponsiveness to maximal therapy (49.2%) and multiorgan failure (17.1%). The most important consideration for decision-making was the patient’s best interest (81.5%).
 
Conclusion: Life-sustaining treatment limitations are common in Hong Kong ICUs; shared decision-making between physicians and families in the patient’s best interest is the predominant model. Loss of decision-making capacity is common at the end of life. Patients should be encouraged to communicate end-of-life treatment preferences to family members/surrogates, or through advance directives.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • Life-sustaining treatment (LST) limitation at the end of life is common in Hong Kong intensive care units (ICUs).
  • Compared with international practices, the time from admission to LST limitation is relatively long in Hong Kong.
  • Shared decision-making between healthcare providers and patients, family members, or patient surrogates is the predominant decision-making model.
  • Most patients lack the mental capacity for decision-making at the end of life.
  • Patient preferences regarding the use of life-sustaining therapies at the end of life are usually unknown, and the use of advance directives is rare.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • End-of-life care practices in Hong Kong ICUs generally align with local guidelines and the international consensus.
  • Local factors possibly preventing earlier implementation of LST limitation in appropriate patients should be explored.
  • The public should be educated to communicate their preferences regarding the use of life-sustaining therapies in ICUs to surrogates/family members, or through advance directives.
 
 
Introduction
Despite high-quality care, many patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) do not survive; therefore, management of the dying process is a required skill among modern healthcare professionals.1 Life-sustaining technology has advanced sufficiently that it is possible to maintain vital organ function despite the knowledge that the patient’s return to health and an acceptable quality of life is no longer feasible. In these situations, a decision to limit life-sustaining treatment (LST) has become a common clinical practice in most countries worldwide.2 3 4 5 6 In recent decades, attempts to define desirable principles for end-of-life care according to a global professional consensus have achieved considerable success.3 Nevertheless, decision-making processes for death and dying are likely to be heavily influenced by regional and cultural norms and expectations; thus, it is reasonable to expect different medical practices related to end-of-life decisions. Several local and international surveys of healthcare professionals have revealed regional differences in attitudes towards end-of-life ethical concerns, as well as substantial differences in clinical practices.7 8 9 10 11 Limited prospective observational data from international studies support the existence of regional variability in end-of-life practices.5 12 13
 
Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China with an overwhelmingly Chinese population; nevertheless, it maintains an independent fiscal budget and healthcare system. The Hong Kong Hospital Authority, funded by the Hong Kong SAR Government, provides >90% of hospital-based services available for the local population; although nearly all healthcare workers in the public health services exhibit Chinese ethnicity, health services are based on Western medical conventions.14 Hong Kong is considered a high-income region, and recently published patient outcomes data indicate that the Hong Kong Hospital Authority provides high-quality intensive care services.15 The juxtaposition of a Western medical system and a culturally Chinese population creates a situation where Western medical practices (driven by Western cultural and ethical values) may conflict with Chinese cultural values, particularly at the end of life when deep-rooted cultural beliefs may become more relevant. A small number of studies have explored end-of-life care practices in Hong Kong ICUs; these include a survey of ICU physicians’ ethical attitudes concerning end-of-life care8 and a prospective observational study regarding end-of-life practices at a single tertiary university hospital.16 No observational territory-wide data have been published thus far. Additionally, end-of-life practices in Europe have substantially changed in recent decades17; similar changes may have occurred in Hong Kong, although previous comparative data are sparse.16 Multiple Hong Kong ICUs participated in the recent worldwide Ethicus-2 study,13 18 with the understanding that the Hong Kong data would be accessible for secondary analysis. The aim of this study was to provide a detailed description of current end-of-life care practices in Hong Kong.
 
Methods
This study constituted a secondary analysis of the Ethicus-2 database, focusing on the Hong Kong data. The Ethicus-2 study was a prospective, multicentre, global observational study of end-of-life practices in 199 ICUs across 36 countries.13 17 All 15 adult ICUs in publicly funded hospitals in Hong Kong were invited to participate by the Hong Kong study coordinator, representing the Hong Kong Society of Critical Care Medicine. Eight ICUs in Hong Kong participated.
 
Consecutive adult patients admitted to the ICU over an individual ICU-selected 6-month period between 1 September 2015 and 30 September 2016 with LST limitation or death were included. Follow-up continued until death or 2 months from the initial decision to limit LST. End-of-life categories included withholding LST, withdrawing LST, active shortening of the dying process, failed cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and brain death. These categories were mutually exclusive; if more than one limitation was triggered in a particular case, the most stringent limitation was chosen (ie, active shortening of the dying process was considered more stringent than LST withdrawal, followed by LST withholding).
 
Data were collected by the senior physician, or a representative, responsible for making end-of-life decisions. De-identified patient data were entered into a secure online database. Collected data included age; sex; religion; end-of-life category; admission date, time, and diagnoses; chronic disorders; use of ventilation and vasopressors, sedatives, or analgesics; date and time of hospital and ICU admission; and date and time of death or discharge from the ICU or hospital. End-of-life process data collected included type, date, and time of LST; presence of information about patient wishes; discussions with the patient or their family; degree of concurrence between the decision and patient/family wishes; and reasons for treatment decisions.
 
Data quality was monitored by concurrent audit and feedback, with a quality review involving 5% of all patients.17 Categorical variables were reported as numbers and percentages within end-of-life groups. After normality assessment using the Shapiro–Wilk test, continuous variables were reported as means (standard deviations) or medians (interquartile ranges [IQRs]), as appropriate. Differences among LST withholding, LST withdrawal, and no LST limitation groups were compared using analysis of variance, the Kruskal–Wallis H test, or the Chi squared test, as appropriate. Subsequent pairwise group comparisons were performed with Bonferroni correction for multiple tests. All analyses were performed using SPSS software (Windows version 27.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], United States).
 
This prospective observational study has been reported in accordance with the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist for observational studies.
 
Results
The eight participating ICUs were distributed across Hong Kong; at least two ICUs represented each of the New Territories, Kowloon, and Hong Kong Island. Two ICUs were located in academic university hospitals (comprising 20 and 25 acute ICU beds, respectively), and the remainder were located in medium-to-large regional hospitals (ranging from 12 to 22 acute ICU beds per unit).
 
Among the 4922 consecutive patients screened during the study period, 548 (11.1%) patients with LST limitation (withholding or withdrawal) or death (failed CPR or brain death) were included in the study. Life-sustaining treatment limitation occurred in 455 (83.0%) patients, including 353 (77.6%) with decisions to withhold LST and 102 (22.4%) with decisions to withdraw LST. Of the 93 patients who died without LST limitation, 80 (86.0%) had failed CPR, and 13 (14.0%) experienced brain death (Fig 1). No patients underwent shortening of the dying process.
 

Figure 1. Patient flow diagram
 
Patient characteristics are summarised in Table 1; knowledge of patient and family/surrogate wishes, as well as the timing of end-of-life processes, are described in Table 2. Patients without LST limitation had a shorter duration of ICU stay (median: 3 days, IQR=1-6) compared with patients who had decisions to withhold (median: 4 days, IQR=2-13) or withdraw (median: 6 days, IQR=3-11) [P<0.001].
 

Table 1. Patient demographics and characteristics on admission
 

Table 2. Patients’ treatment wishes and subsequent end-of-life processes
 
The prevalences of treatments withheld or withdrawn at the initial and final decisions to limit LST are shown in Figure 2. Higher percentages of patients had endotracheal tube (P=0.009), renal replacement therapy (P<0.001), and sedation/analgesia (P=0.002) withheld at the final decision, compared with the initial decision. Similarly, higher percentages of patients had endotracheal tube, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor, and renal replacement therapy withdrawn at the final decision (all P<0.001), compared with the initial decision.
 

Figure 2. Life-sustaining treatment limitation (in percentages) at the time of (a) initial and (b) final decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment
 
Information about decision-making practices for patients with LST limitation is provided in Table 3. In the majority of cases, the ICU physician was involved in key aspects of end-of-life decision-making and implementation. The responsible ICU physicians’ explanations of the reasons and considerations for supporting end-of-life decisions are provided in Table 4. The primary clinical reason for limiting LST was unresponsiveness to maximal therapy; the patient’s best interest, perceived good medical practice, and autonomy were key decision-making considerations.
 

Table 3. End-of-life practices in patients with life-sustaining treatment limitation (n=455)
 

Table 4. End-of-life decision-making: primary clinical reasons, considerations, and difficulties reported for patients with lifesustaining treatment limitation (n=455)
 
Discussion
This is the first large, multicentre, prospective, observational study of end-of-life care practices in Hong Kong ICUs. Our main findings were that LST limitation preceded >80% of patient deaths, and that death occurred in the vast majority of patients with LST limitation; only 4% of patients with LST limitation were alive at 2 months. Only 15% of ICU patients died after failed CPR (ie, without any LST limitations). Advance directives were rarely available, and no cases of active shortening of the dying process (euthanasia) were reported. Life-sustaining treatment limitation occurred in the majority (83.0%) of patients, predominantly via withholding (77.6%); withdrawal was less common (22.4%) [Fig 1]. High rates of LST limitation, such as those observed in this study, are generally presumed to reflect good end-of-life practices and have been associated with the presence of written end-of-life guidelines,19 such as those provided by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority.20
 
Withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment
Regarding treatments that were withdrawn or withheld, the withholding of CPR universally accompanied all limitation decisions. Nutrition, hydration, and sedation were rarely withheld or withdrawn at any time, consistent with guidance from professional bodies in Hong Kong that additional safeguards are necessary when considering these actions.20 At the time of the initial limitation decision, there was relatively frequent withholding of vasopressors and renal replacement therapy; withholding or withdrawal of endotracheal tubes was less common. Although the patterns of LST limitation were similar between the initial and final decisions, such that withholding remained more prevalent than withdrawal, a substantial increase was observed in the prevalence of LST withdrawal at the time of the final decision. This finding may reflect the common Chinese cultural perspective that LST withholding and withdrawal are not ethically equivalent, with a documented preference for withholding over withdrawal as an end-of-life care strategy.8 11 The increase in withdrawal prevalence at the time of the final decision across key treatment categories (eg, vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy) suggests that, with increasing prognostic certainty and clear progression towards death, LST withdrawal becomes more acceptable. There also appeared to be a greater reluctance to adopt withdrawal strategies early in the ICU stay, evidenced by the longer interval between ICU admission and initial limitation, if the initial limitation was withdrawal. This tendency may also reflect the need for greater prognostic certainty prior to the implementation of a withdrawal strategy. Comparisons with international data indicate that although the high rate of LST limitation prior to death is similar to practices in other countries, the early and more frequent use of withholding (rather than withdrawal) remains distinct from practices reported in North America, North and Central Europe, and Asia.13
 
Comparative historical data from Hong Kong are limited. A single-centre observational study conducted between 1997 and 1999 showed that LST limitation occurred in 59% of patients,16 although its LST limitation categories are not fully aligned with those of the current study. Notably, the mean interval between ICU admission and LST limitation in this previous study was nearly 8 days,16 whereas the median interval in the current study was 1.8 days (IQR=0.5-7); this difference suggests that recognition of the need for LST limitation is occurring much earlier in Hong Kong, consistent with a pattern observed in Europe during the same period.17 21 When LST limitation is indicated, earlier intervention leads to a shorter duration of patient discomfort; the observed reduction in time to limitation may represent a meaningful practice improvement over time.
 
Despite similar rates of LST withholding/withdrawal, the low rate of survival after LST limitation in Hong Kong (3%-4%)—comparable to the findings in a previous pan-European study12—contrasts with current European ICU outcomes, where the combined survival rate after LST withdrawal or withholding was 20%.17 This difference may possibly be attributed to implementing LST in patients at the very end-of-life when prognostic certainty is greater. The earlier implementation of end-of-life interventions may represent an area for further exploration to improve end-of-life ICU practices and minimise suffering.
 
Practice components of end-of-life care
Key practices in end-of-life decision-making included the initiation of discussions to limit LST by ICU physicians in the vast majority of cases; when such discussions began, ICU physicians were always involved in end-of-life decision-making processes. Notably, shared decision-making between ICU physicians and families was the predominant model reported. These findings align with the best practices described in recent international expert consensus documents.1 3 Despite frequent use of the shared decision-making model, direct or indirect knowledge of the patient’s wishes regarding LST was available for fewer than half of patients (40.3%); in the vast majority of cases (94.6%), this information was transmitted by relatives rather than by the patient themselves. Only 33 (6.0%) patients had decision-making capacity during the decision-making process, and only two (0.4%) patients had advance directives (Table 2). These results highlight the need to encourage patients to discuss their wishes regarding future end-of-life care preferences with relatives, or communicate such wishes through the use of advance directives, ensuring that patients receive the preferred level of care at this critical time. Nevertheless, levels of agreement among all parties regarding end-of-life decisions were high, and delays in decision-making due to disagreement were uncommon.
 
Advance directives
Advance directives in Hong Kong ICUs were rarely available, possibly due to selection bias; individuals with advanced disease and a greater likelihood of advance directives may have lower ICU admission priority. However, the current rate of advance directive use in North American ICUs at the end of life is nearly 50%.18 A relatively recent population-based study demonstrated very low public awareness of advance directives in Hong Kong, such that 86% of participants reported no previous knowledge of the advance directive concept.22 However, once informed of this concept, the majority of participants indicated a willingness to consider using such directives. The legislative process to formalise advance directive use in Hong Kong has substantially progressed, and there is a recognised need for public education and healthcare professional–specific guidance to promote the use of these directives.23 24
 
Patient characteristics and reasons for limitations of life-sustaining treatment
In the present study, the most common diagnostic categories at ICU admission were respiratory (43.4%) and sepsis-related (38.0%) [Table 1], similar to reported findings in most other regions worldwide.18 There were no substantial age or sex differences regarding LST limitation, but there were distinct differences in ICU admission diagnoses, such that limitation was less likely in patients with cardiovascular conditions and more likely in patients with sepsis or gastrointestinal disease. The vast majority of patients exhibited at least one co-morbidity, again similar to recently reported findings in other regions.18 Intriguingly, no patients with cancer were among those who died without LST limitation.
 
The primary clinical reasons for initiating LST limitation included unresponsiveness to maximal therapy, multiorgan failure, and neurologic failure; in few cases, the limitation arose from a family request or mainly in relation to quality of life (Table 4). Overwhelmingly, the primary consideration for decision-making was the patient’s best interest, followed by the principle of good medical practice, defined as the recognition that continued maximal therapy would not be beneficial for the patient (Table 4). These observations closely match the responses recently provided by a group of international experts who were asked to rank the triggers they would likely use in clinical practice to initiate discussions about LST limitation.1
 
Decision-making at end-of-life
Two questions related to decision-making and patient treatment wishes revealed an interesting observation. Across all end-of-life categories, approximately 70% of physicians in charge of end-of-life decision-making reported that if the patient’s wishes were known, they were followed. In contrast, when a surrogate’s treatment wishes were known, they were followed in nearly every case (Table 2). These responses indicate that the family’s treatment preferences are respected more frequently compared with known patient preferences, in contrast to guidelines from the Medical Council of Hong Kong25 and the Hospital Authority.20 Both guidelines clearly state that treatment preferences should be sought via communication with patients and family when possible, and a consensus should be reached; however, when conflicting views cannot be reconciled, the patient’s treatment preferences should supersede the family’s preferences.20 25 It is possible that physicians prioritised the family’s preferences because few patients were capable of direct communication; there was low certainty regarding perceived patient wishes when communicated through third parties. Nevertheless, this finding warrants further investigation and reflection among Hong Kong ICU healthcare professionals.
 
Most communication related to end-of-life decision-making occurred between ICU physicians and family/surrogates; nurses, primary physicians, and consulting physicians were involved in fewer than half of the reported cases. It has been suggested that this relatively low percentage of nurse involvement is an underestimate because most data were reported by physicians who may be unaware of nurse involvement.26 Decision agreement between healthcare staff and family members, as well as among family members, was reportedly very high (>95%) [Table 3]. Disagreements between family and staff were rare, as were delays in implementing end-of-life care because of disagreement, indicating a high level of acceptance of the decision-making process by the public and healthcare professionals in Hong Kong.
 
Strengths and limitations
This study’s strengths included its involvement of a large number of patients over a 6-month period, provision of detailed follow-up data for up to 2 months, prospective design, and representation of most public ICUs in Hong Kong. Moreover, the data were provided by the physician in charge of end-of-life decision-making, with support from clear definitions and uniform collection across ICUs; they were also subjected to external quality control measures, minimising measurement bias. The main limitations were the lack of random ICU allocation and inclusion of consenting ICUs only, which may have introduced selection bias.
 
Conclusion
Data from the majority of Hong Kong ICUs, spanning the entire territory and representing both academic and non-academic ICUs, revealed that LST limitation occurs in most patients prior to death in ICU. Practices generally align with recommendations from local professional bodies and key international consensus documents. Although decision-making is usually initiated by ICU physicians, shared decision-making between medical staff and family/surrogates is the predominant model. Because a loss of decision-making capacity is common in the ICU, patients should be encouraged to communicate their wishes regarding end-of-life care through dialogue with relatives or more formal methods. Certain practices and outcomes observed in Hong Kong are more similar to those reported in North America and Europe than to patterns in other parts of Asia.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: CL Sprung, A Avidan, GM Joynt.
Acquisition of data: GM Joynt, SKH Ling, LL Chang, PNW Tsai, GKF Au, DHK So, FL Chow, PKN Lam.
Analysis or interpretation of data: A Lee, GM Joynt.
Drafting of the manuscript: GM Joynt.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
No funding was obtained to conduct this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The Walter F and Alice Gorham Foundation funded the international co-ordination of the Ethicus-2 study. The Foundation had no part in the design and conduct of the research; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
 
Ethics approval
This research was approved by the relevant Research Ethics Committee for each of the participating centres, including:
(1) Tuen Mun Hospital—The New Territories West Cluster Research Ethics Committee of Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (Ref No.: NTWC/CREC/15078);
(2) Prince of Wales Hospital and North District Hospital—The Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong—New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee, Hong Kong (Ref No.: 2015.080);
(3) Caritas Medical Centre—The Kowloon West Cluster Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong [Ref No.: KW/EX-15-103(88-02)];
(4) Kwong Wah Hospital—The Kowloon West Cluster Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong [Ref No.: KW/EX-15-105(88-04)];
(5) Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital—The Hong Kong East Cluster Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (Ref No.: HKEC-2015-028);
(6) Princess Margaret Hospital—The Kowloon West Cluster Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong [Ref No.: KW/EX-15-104(88-03)]; and
(7) Queen Mary Hospital—Institutional Review Board of The University of Hong Kong / Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster, Hong Kong (Ref No.: UW 15-361).
 
The requirement for informed patient consent was waived by the relevant Clinical Research Ethics Committees as the study was observational only, where all collected data were anonymised at source and only de-identified data were passed on to the co-ordinating centre for analysis, and risk to participants was minimal.
Members of the Hong Kong Ethicus-2 study group (in alphabetical order):
Gary KF Au, Department of Intensive Care, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Alexander Avidan, Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Hadassah Medical Organization and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
KC Chan, Department of Intensive Care, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
WM Chan, Adult Intensive Care Unit, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
LL Chang, Department of Intensive Care, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
FL Chow, Department of Intensive Care, Caritas Medical Centre, Hong Kong SAR, China
Gavin Matthew Joynt, Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Gladys WM Kwan, Department of Intensive Care, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Philip KN Lam, Department of Intensive Care, North District Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Anna Lee, Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
E Leung, Adult Intensive Care Unit, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Steven KH Ling, Department of Intensive Care, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
CH Ng, Department of Intensive Care, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
HP Shum, Department of Intensive Care, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Dominic HK So, Department of Intensive Care Unit, Princess Margaret Hospital/Yan Chai Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Charles L Sprung, Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Hadassah Medical Organization and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
L Sy, Department of Intensive Care, North District Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
Polly NW Tsai, Adult Intensive Care Unit, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
HH Tsang, Department of Intensive Care, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
WT Wong, Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
References
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3. Sprung CL, Truog RD, Curtis JR, et al. Seeking worldwide professional consensus on the principles of end-of-life care for the critically ill. The Consensus for Worldwide End-of-Life Practice for Patients in Intensive Care Units (WELPICUS) study. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2014;190:855-66. Crossref
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5. Lobo SM, De Simoni FH, Jakob SM, et al. Decision-making on withholding or withdrawing life support in the ICU: a worldwide perspective. Chest 2017;152:321-9. Crossref
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13. Avidan A, Sprung CL, Schefold JC, et al. Variations in end-of-life practices in intensive care units worldwide (Ethicus-2): a prospective observational study. Lancet Respir Med 2021;9:1101-10. Crossref
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15. Ling L, Ho CM, Ng PY, et al. Characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to adult intensive care units in Hong Kong: a population retrospective cohort study from 2008 to 2018. J Intensive Care 2021;9:2. Crossref
16. Buckley TA, Joynt GM, Tan PY, Cheng CA, Yap FH. Limitation of life support: frequency and practice in a Hong Kong intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 2004;32:415-20. Crossref
17. Sprung CL, Ricou B, Hartog CS, et al. Changes in end-of-life practices in European intensive care units from 1999 to 2016. JAMA 2019;322:1692-704. Crossref
18. Feldman C, Sprung CL, Mentzelopoulos SD, et al. Global comparison of communication of end-of-life decisions in the ICU. Chest 2022;162:1074-85. Crossref
19. Mentzelopoulos SD, Chen S, Nates JL, et al. Derivation and performance of an end-of-life practice score aimed at interpreting worldwide treatment-limiting decisions in the critically ill. Crit Care 2022;26:106. Crossref
20. Hospital Authority, Hong Kong SAR Government. Working Group on review of Hospital Authority Clinical Ethics Committee (HKCEC) guidelines related to EOL decisionmaking. HA Guidelines on Life-Sustaining Treatment in the Terminally Ill. 2020. Available from: https://www.ha.org.hk/haho/ho/psrm/LSTEng.pdf. Accessed 4 Jul 2023.
21. Lesieur O, Herbland A, Cabasson S, Hoppe MA, Guillaume F, Leloup M. Changes in limitations of life-sustaining treatments over time in a French intensive care unit: a prospective observational study. J Crit Care 2018;47:21-9. Crossref
22. Chung RY, Wong EL, Kiang N, et al. Knowledge, attitudes, and preferences of advance decisions, end-of-life care, and place of care and death in Hong Kong. A population-based telephone survey of 1067 adults. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2017;18:367.e19-27. Crossref
23. Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government. End-of-Life Care: Legislative Proposals on Advance Directives and Dying in Place Consultation Report. July 2020. Available from: https://www.healthbureau.gov.hk/download/press_and_publications/consultation/190900_eolcare/e_EOL_consultation_report.pdf. Accessed 4 Jul 2023.
24. Fong BY, Yee HH, Ng TK. Advance directives in Hong Kong: moving forward to legislation. Ann Palliat Med 2022;11:2622-30. Crossref
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Glycaemic control and microvascular complications among paediatric type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Hong Kong at 2 years after diagnosis

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Aug;30(4):291–9 | Epub 16 Aug 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Glycaemic control and microvascular complications among paediatric type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Hong Kong at 2 years after diagnosis
WI Yam, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Paediatrics)1; Shirley MY Wong, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)1; PT Cheung, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)2; Elaine YW Kwan, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)3; YY Lam, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)4; LM Wong, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)5; KL Ng, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)6; Sammy WC Wong, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Paediatrics)7; CY Lee, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)8; MK Tay, LMCHK, FHKAM (Paediatrics)9; KT Chan, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)3; Antony CC Fu, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Paediatrics)10; Joanna YL Tung, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)11; Gloria SW Pang, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)11; HC Yau, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Paediatrics)12; Queenie WS See, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)2; Priscilla WC Lo, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)6; Sharon WY To, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)10; HW Yuen, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Paediatrics)4; Jacky YK Chung, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)8; Eunice WY Wong, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)5; Sarah WY Poon, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)11; Charlotte HY Lam, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)7; Suki SY Chan, LMCHK, MRCPCH12; Janez HC Tsui, MB, BS, MRCPCH3; Cindy SY Chan, MB, BS, MRCPCH9; Betty WM But, MB, BS, FHKAM (Paediatrics)1
1 Department of Paediatrics, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
6 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
7 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Alice Ho Miu Ling Nethersole Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
8 Department of Paediatrics, Caritas Medical Centre, Hong Kong SAR, China
9 Department of Paediatrics, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
10 Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Princess Margaret Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
11 Department of Paediatrics, Hong Kong Children’s Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
12 Department of Paediatrics, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Dr WI Yam (ywi817@ha.org.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is becoming increasingly common among children and adolescents worldwide, including those in Hong Kong. This study analysed the characteristics and prevalence of microvascular complications among paediatric T2DM patients in Hong Kong at diagnosis and 2 years after diagnosis.
 
Methods: All patients aged <18 years who had been diagnosed with DM at public hospitals in Hong Kong were recruited into the Hong Kong Childhood Diabetes Registry. Data collected at diagnosis and 2 years after diagnosis were retrospectively retrieved from the Registry for patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2018.
 
Results: Median haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels were 7.5% (n=203) at diagnosis and 6.5% (n=135) 2 years after diagnosis; 59.3% of patients achieved optimal glycaemic control (HbA1c level <7%) at 2 years. A higher HbA1c level at diagnosis was associated with worse glycaemic control at 2 years (correlation coefficient=0.39; P<0.001). The presence of dyslipidaemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=3.19; P=0.033) and fatty liver (aOR=2.50; P=0.021) at 2 years were associated with suboptimal glycaemic control. Diabetic neuropathy and retinopathy were rare in our cohort, but 18.6% of patients developed microalbuminuria (MA) within 2 years after diagnosis. Patients with MA had a higher HbA1c level at 2 years (median: 7.2% vs 6.4%; P=0.037). Hypertension was a risk factor for MA at 2 years, independent of glycaemic control (aOR=4.61; P=0.008).
 
Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of early diagnosis and holistic management (including co-morbidity management) for paediatric T2DM patients.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • A total of 59.3% of paediatric type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Hong Kong had achieved satisfactory glycaemic control at 2 years after diagnosis.
  • Factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years after diagnosis were higher haemoglobin A1c level at diagnosis, fatty liver at 2 years, and dyslipidaemia at 2 years.
  • Overall, 18.6% of patients had microalbuminuria at 2 years and exhibited hypertension as a risk factor, independent of glycaemic control.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • Early diagnosis of diabetes mellitus is important because initial disease severity predicts the risk of suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years.
  • Management of co-morbidities, including fatty liver, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension, is important for the maintenance of glycaemic control and prevention of microalbuminuria.
 
 
Introduction
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in children and adolescents (hereinafter, youth) is becoming increasingly common worldwide.1 2 A recent meta-analysis estimated that approximately 41 600 new cases of T2DM were identified among youth in 2021.3 Type 2 DM in youth exhibits relatively rapid clinical progression with a sharp decline in beta-cell function and high risk of complications.4 In a study recently published by the TODAY (Type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Youth) Study Group, which analysed 500 young adults with youth-onset T2DM, 60.1% of patients developed at least one microvascular complication (diabetic kidney, nerve, or retinal disease) and 28.4% of patients developed at least two complications.5 In addition to hyperglycaemia, the presence of co-morbidities (eg, hypertension and dyslipidaemia) was associated with an increased risk of complications.5
 
A similar increase in the incidence of T2DM has been observed in Hong Kong. We previously reported that the crude incidence rate increased from 1.27 per 100 000 person-years in 1997-2007 to 3.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2008-2017.6 However, there have been limited data regarding the outcomes of paediatric T2DM patients in Hong Kong. In this study, we reviewed the glycaemic control findings and microvascular complication rates among recently diagnosed paediatric T2DM patients in Hong Kong, with a focus on outcomes at 2 years after diagnosis; we sought to identify factors associated with poor glycaemic control and the development of microalbuminuria (MA).
 
Methods
Setting
Data analysed in this study were retrieved from the Hong Kong Childhood Diabetes Registry, a database established in 2016. The Registry was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong, which includes 11 public hospitals. Investigators retrieved information from medical records and entered relevant data into the Registry. Standardised data entry forms for recording baseline clinical characteristics and annual entry forms were provided for investigators to enter data into the Registry at diagnosis and annually thereafter. Data were cross-checked by at least two investigators.
 
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
All patients aged <18 years who had been diagnosed with DM at public hospitals in Hong Kong were recruited. All recruited patients met the diagnostic criteria for DM according to the International Society for Paediatric and Adolescent Diabetes Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines: patients were symptomatic and had either fasting blood glucose level ≥7 mmol/L, 2-hour blood glucose level ≥11.1 mmol/L during an oral glucose tolerance test, random blood glucose level ≥11.1 mmol/L, or haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level ≥6.5%.4 Asymptomatic patients underwent repeat testing with a different test, as suggested in the Guidelines.4 The classification of DM was based on the attending clinician’s assessment of clinical symptoms and laboratory findings, including obesity status, family history, autoimmunity, and clinical course. Patients diagnosed with T2DM from 2014 to 2018 were included in the analysis, including those who had an initial diagnosis of type 1 DM that was subsequently revised to T2DM. Patients who refused Registry recruitment and patients whose diagnosis was revised to type 1 DM or maturity-onset DM of the young were not included in the analysis.
 
Data collection and definitions
The following data were retrieved from the Registry: patient age, sex, family history of T2DM (in first- or second-degree relatives), symptoms at presentation, anti-islet cell antibody test results, body mass index (BMI), HbA1c level, presence of co-morbidities (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnoea), presence of complications (MA, retinopathy, and neuropathy), treatments received, and frequency of blood glucose self-monitoring. Overweight and obesity were defined using age- and sex-specific cut-offs established by the International Obesity Task Force, which predicted BMI values at 18 years (25, 30, and 35 kg/m2) by the respective standard deviations to define overweight, obesity and morbid obesity, respectively; standard deviations of BMI were calculated according to age- and sex-specific reference data provided by the International Obesity Task Force.7 In this study, weight loss was defined as any decrease in BMI z-score, and improvement in HbA1c level was defined as any decrease in HbA1c level. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was defined as an elevated alanine transferase level (based on age- and sex-specific reference data) or compatible ultrasound findings. Dyslipidaemia was defined as an elevated low-density lipoprotein level of ≥2.6 mmol/L, a triglyceride level ≥1.7 mmol/L, or the receipt of lipid-lowering agents. Hypertension was defined as an elevated systolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for age, height, and sex—on at least two occasions—or the receipt of anti-hypertensive medication. Obstructive sleep apnoea was defined as the presence of clinical symptoms indicating sleep-disordered breathing, along with polysomnography findings of obstructive apnoeas/hypopneas. Microalbuminuria was defined as an elevated spot urine albumin-creatinine ratio >2.5 mg/mmol for boys and >3.5 mg/mmol for girls in at least two of three samples within a 6-month period, or as the receipt of any treatment for MA. Retinopathy (eg, non-proliferative and proliferative diabetic retinopathy, as well as macula oedema) was identified by digital fundus photography and confirmed via referral to an ophthalmologist. Neuropathy was clinically identified by the presence of symptoms (numbness and paraesthesia) and through clinical examinations including the 10-g monofilament test, vibration sense assessment, and ankle reflex evaluation. Suboptimal glycaemic control was defined as HbA1c level ≥7%, as suggested by the International Society for Paediatric and Adolescent Diabetes Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines.4
 
Data analysis
Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (Windows version 23; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], United States). All available data were included in the statistical analysis, and the numbers of available values are listed in the tables. Continuous variables, including age, HbA1c level, and BMI z-score, were tested for normality using the Shapiro–Wilk test. Data with skewed distributions were expressed as medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs), and comparisons were made using the Mann-Whitney U test. Analyses of relationships between two continuous variables were assessed by Spearman rank correlation and expressed using the Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ). Categorical variables were expressed as exact numbers of patients with percentages. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess risk factors for suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years and MA at 2 years. Univariate analyses were performed to determine unadjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Multivariate analyses of factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years were performed while including HbA1c level at diagnosis to adjust for initial disease severity. Multivariate analyses of factors associated with MA at 2 years were performed while including HbA1c level at 2 years to eliminate the effect of glycaemic control at 2 years; this approach was intended to independently assess the effects of co-morbidities. Missing data were not included in regression analyses. Statistical tests were two-sided and were performed with a 5% significance threshold (ie, alpha=0.05). The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist for cohort studies was used when reporting the study findings.
 
Results
Study population
In total, 212 patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2014 and 2018 were recruited into the Registry. Their baseline demographics are summarised in Tables 1 and 2. Of these patients, 71.3% had a family history of T2DM, and 21.7% were symptomatic at diagnosis (Table 1). At 2 years after the diagnosis of DM, 143 patients (67.5%) continued attending follow-up visits. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the groups with and without follow-up at 2 years, except for a higher age at diagnosis in the loss to follow-up group (online supplementary Table).
 

Table 1. Baseline patient demographics
 

Table 2. Glycaemic control, co-morbidities and microvascular complications, and treatment received
 
Glycaemic control
Haemoglobin A1c levels at diagnosis, 1 year after diagnosis, and 2 years after diagnosis were available for 203, 176, and 135 patients, respectively. The median HbA1c levels at diagnosis, 1 year after diagnosis, and 2 years after diagnosis were 7.5% (IQR=6.5%-10.6%), 6.3% (IQR=5.8%-7.4%), and 6.5% (IQR=5.8%-8.0%), respectively; at these times, 65.5%, 29.0%, and 40.7% of patients had suboptimal glycaemic control (ie, HbA1c level ≥7%), respectively [Table 2].
 
Co-morbidities
There was an overall improvement in BMI z-score at 2 years after diagnosis (median BMI z-score decreased from 2.5 at diagnosis to 2.3 at 2 years). Overall, 146 of 191 patients (76.4%) had dyslipidaemia at diagnosis, whereas 62 of 95 patients (65.3%) had dyslipidaemia at 2 years. However, more patients had hypertension at 2 years—the number increased from 45 of 212 patients (21.2%) at diagnosis to 55 of 143 patients (38.5%) at 2 years (Table 2).
 
Microvascular complications
Overall, 21 of 113 (18.6%) patients screened at 2 years after diagnosis developed MA, compared with 9.0% at diagnosis. Two patients (1.8%) developed retinopathy, whereas one patient (0.9%) developed neuropathy, at 2 years after diagnosis (Table 2).
 
Treatments received and monitoring
At diagnosis, 24.1% of patients were not receiving any pharmacological treatment, 58.0% were receiving anti-diabetic drugs, and 18% required insulin. At 2 years, only 12.6% of patients were not receiving any medications. The proportions of patients requiring insulin were similar at diagnosis and 2 years (2.1%). In total, 64.9% of patients did not perform daily blood glucose self-monitoring (Table 2).
 
Factors affecting glycaemic control at 2 years
A higher initial HbA1c level was associated with suboptimal glycaemic level at 2 years (correlation coefficient=0.39, P<0.001; n=130). There were no significant correlations of HbA1c level at 2 years with age at diagnosis (correlation coefficient=0.02, P=0.852; n=135), BMI z-score at diagnosis (correlation coefficient=-0.10, P=0.277; n=133), or BMI z-score at 2 years (correlation coefficient=0.04, P=0.638; n=131). Greater decline in BMI z-score was associated with a lower HbA1c level at 2 years (correlation coefficient=-0.22, P=0.011; n=129). However, there was no correlation between the change in BMI z-score and the change in HbA1c level (correlation coefficient <0.01, P=0.973; n=126).
 
Table 3 shows factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years. The effect of a family history of T2DM was not statistically significant after adjustment for initial HbA1c level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.29; P=0.075). A similar result was observed regarding the effect of symptomatic disease at diagnosis (aOR=2.01; P=0.174) and weight loss (aOR=0.53; P=0.128). The presence of fatty liver (aOR=2.50; P=0.021) and dyslipidaemia (aOR=3.19; P=0.033) at 2 years were associated with suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years, even after adjustment for initial HbA1c level.
 

Table 3. Factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control (haemoglobin A1c level ≥7%) at 2 years
 
Factors associated with the development of microalbuminuria at 2 years
Patients with MA had higher HbA1c levels at 2 years compared with patients who did not exhibit MA (median HbA1c level: 7.2% vs 6.4%; P=0.037) [Table 4]. Dyslipidaemia at 2 years was associated with MA at 2 years in the univariate analysis (unadjusted odds ratio=5.51; P=0.030), but the effect did not remain statistically significant after adjusting for glycaemic control at 2 years (Table 5). The presence of hypertension at 2 years was a risk factor for MA at 2 years, independent of glycaemic control at 2 years (aOR=4.61; P=0.008) [Table 5].
 

Table 4. Univariate analysis of factors associated with the development of microalbuminuria at 2 years
 

Table 5. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with the development of microalbuminuria at 2 years
 
Discussion
Glycaemic control
The results of this study provide insights into the early post-diagnosis clinical course of T2DM among youth in Hong Kong. Nearly 60% of patients (59.3%) in our cohort had optimal glycaemic control with HbA1c level <7% at 2 years after diagnosis. Previous studies regarding glycaemic control among youth with T2DM showed variable results, presumably due to heterogeneity in the study populations, follow-up periods, and glycaemic targets.8 9 10 11 A clinical trial by the TODAY Study Group8 followed up 234 youth with DM, who were put on metformin and lifestyle modifications and with initial HbA1c level <8%, for 3.86 years on average. It showed that 46.6% of youth with DM exhibited loss of glycaemic control, defined by HbA1c level >8%.8 In a study of 301 paediatric T2DM patients with initial HbA1c level ≥7% in the United States, Barr et al9 found that after 1 year, 37% of patients achieved optimal control (HbA1c level ≤6.5%) and 58% achieved durable glycaemic control (HbA1c level ≤8%). However, at 3 years, only 26% of patients achieved HbA1c level ≤6.5%, whereas 59% exhibited HbA1c level ≤8%.9 Candler et al10 followed 100 paediatric T2DM patients in the United Kingdom; the median HbA1c level was 7% after 1 year, and 38.8% of patients exhibited HbA1c level <6.5%. Notably, no data regarding HbA1c levels at diagnosis were provided in the study.10 In a study of 96 patients in Israel, Meyerovitch et al11 found that the median HbA1c level was 7.97% after an average follow-up period of 3.11 years, compared with 7.8% at diagnosis. Additionally, >50% of patients required insulin at the end of the follow-up period.11 Although our cohort appeared to have better glycaemic control compared with the previous studies, our patients might have had lower initial HbA1c levels at diagnosis, considering that most of them were asymptomatic (78.3%). Our study also showed that patients with a higher initial HbA1c level tended to have a persistently high HbA1c level at 2 years. These findings emphasise the importance of early diagnosis and treatment before patients develop clinically significant hyperglycaemia, which makes DM more difficult to control. Most of our patients were overweight or obese (89.8%); many of them also had co-morbidities including hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and fatty liver (Table 2). Previous studies in Hong Kong showed a high risk of metabolic syndrome (OR up to 32.2) in overweight and obese children.12 13 Active screening for metabolic syndrome would enable early diagnosis and treatment of DM and its co-morbidities.
 
Co-morbidities
Factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control were dyslipidaemia and fatty liver at 2 years after diagnosis. A recent study showed that each 1% increase in HbA1c level was associated with 13% and 20% increases in the risks of abnormal triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein levels, respectively.14 The importance of weight loss has been emphasised in various guidelines, for example, The American Diabetes Association recommends weight loss of at least 5% in adult overweight or obese DM patients.15 However, a specific weight loss target cannot be established in growing children. The study by Candler et al10 regarding youth with T2DM showed that each one-unit increase in BMI z-score was associated with a 34.9% increase in HbA1c level. Although the present study indicated that a greater drop in BMI z-score was associated with lower HbA1c level at 2 years, the association between weight loss and prevention of suboptimal glycaemic control at 2 years was not significant after adjustment for initial HbA1c level.
 
Microvascular complications
Diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy were rare among youth with T2DM. However, the proportion of patients with MA increased from 9.0% at diagnosis to 18.6% at 2 years (Table 2). Previous studies regarding the prevalence of diabetic complications in youth have shown mixed results, probably due to genetic variation and differences in DM duration. High prevalences have been observed in cohorts with long DM durations.16 The MA prevalence has been approximately 20% to 30% in most studies of youth with a short duration of T2DM. In the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study, the MA prevalence in youth with T2DM was 22.2%, and the average duration of disease was 1.9 years.17 In an Australian population, Eppens et al18 found that 28% of patients had MA, with a median disease duration of 1.3 years. Candler et al10 showed that the MA prevalence increased from 4.2% to 16.4% within 1 year after diagnosis. Our cohort showed a similar prevalence compared with other cohorts. Nevertheless, the increasing trend is concerning, particularly because MA has been identified as an independent predictor of mortality risk in adults.19 Thus, we conducted further analysis of risk factors for MA, revealing the associations of higher HbA1c level and hypertension at 2 years, consistent with the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.17 The deleterious effects of hypertension on the kidneys explain the additional increase in MA risk, independent of glycaemic control.
 
Strengths and limitations
Strengths of this study included its provision of insights regarding the early outcomes of youth with T2DM in Hong Kong, particularly concerning glycaemic control and associated factors. First, our findings supported the implementation of active screening in overweight and obese individuals to allow early diagnosis of DM, considering the high prevalence of overweight or obesity and the relationship of lower initial HbA1c level with better glycaemic control at 2 years. Second, our findings indicated that the presence of co-morbidities at 2 years, rather than baseline, was associated with suboptimal glycaemic control and MA, demonstrating the reversibility of the risk factors and highlighting the importance of co-morbidity management. Third, our study identified challenges in managing youth with T2DM, including a high loss to follow-up rate (n=69, 23.5%) [online supplementary Table], suboptimal glycaemic control in >40% of patients at 2 years, infrequent blood glucose self-monitoring by the patients, and increasing trends in MA and hypertension.
 
Indeed, the high loss to follow-up rate was a major limitation of our study. Many patients did not return for clinical assessment or were transferred to an adult endocrinology clinic. Although the loss to follow-up group had a higher age at diagnosis (online supplementary Table), this presumably did not have a substantial impact on the results because age was not a significant risk factor for poor glycaemic control or the likelihood of MA onset. Although a high loss to follow-up rate is a common phenomenon in studies of children with T2DM,20 this obstacle hindered the achievement of good glycaemic control and prevention of complications. It also created difficulty in acquiring long-term follow-up data. Another limitation was that our patients were managed by different doctors in different hospitals; there remains no standardised protocol for the management of paediatric T2DM patients in Hong Kong, which may be a confounding factor for multicentre studies such as ours.
 
Conclusion
Approximately 60% of youth with T2DM in Hong Kong achieved HbA1c level <7% at 2 years after diagnosis. A higher HbA1c level at diagnosis was associated with worse glycaemic control at 2 years. The presence of dyslipidaemia and fatty liver at 2 years were factors associated with suboptimal glycaemic control. Overall, 18.6% of patients developed MA at 2 years; other microvascular complications were rare. These results highlight the importance of early diagnosis and holistic management, including co-morbidity management. The high loss to follow-up rate, high proportion of patients with suboptimal glycaemic control, and increasing number of patients with MA and hypertension are ongoing challenges in the management of youth with DM. The establishment of a standardised protocol may improve outcomes in our patient population. Future research could include studies regarding the effects of insulin resistance and beta-cell function on metabolic outcomes in youth with DM.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: All authors.
Acquisition of data: All authors.
Analysis or interpretation of data: WI Yam, SMY Wong.
Drafting of the manuscript: WI Yam.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
The research was conducted as a part of the Hong Kong Childhood Diabetes Registry, which was approved by the Kowloon Central / Kowloon East Cluster Research Ethics Committee of Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (Ref No.: KC/KE-16-0087/ER-3). Written informed consent was obtained from parents for patients aged <16 years and from both parents and patients for patients aged between ≥16 and <18 years.
 
Supplementary material
The supplementary material was provided by the authors and some information may not have been peer reviewed. Accepted supplementary material will be published as submitted by the authors, without any editing or formatting. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by the Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association. The Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content.
 
References
1. Lawrence JM, Divers J, Isom S, et al. Trends in prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents in the US, 2001-2017. JAMA 2021;326:717-27. Crossref
2. Haynes A, Kalic R, Cooper M, Hewitt JK, Davis EA. Increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes in indigenous and non-indigenous children in Western Australia, 1990-2012. Med J Aust 2016;204:303. Crossref
3. Wu H, Patterson CC, Zhang X, et al. Worldwide estimates of incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents in 2021. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2022;185:109785. Crossref
4. Shah AS, Zeitler PS, Wong J, et al. ISPAD Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines 2022: type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents. Pediatr Diabetes 2022;23:872-902. Crossref
5. TODAY Study Group; Bjornstad P, Drews KL, et al. Long-term complications in youth-onset type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med 2021;385:416-26. Crossref
6. Tung JY, Kwan EY, But BW, et al. Incidence and clinical characteristics of pediatric-onset type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong: the Hong Kong Childhood Diabetes Registry 2008 to 2017. Pediatr Diabetes 2022;23:556-61. Crossref
7. Cole TJ, Lobstein T. Extended international (IOTF) body mass index cut-offs for thinness, overweight and obesity. Pediatr Obes 2012;7:284-94. Crossref
8. TODAY Study Group; Zeitler P, Hirst K, et al. A clinical trial to maintain glycemic control in youth with type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med 2012;366:2247-56. Crossref
9. Barr MM, Aslibekyan S, Ashraf AP. Glycemic control and lipid outcomes in children and adolescents with type 2 diabetes. PLoS One 2019;14:e0219144. Crossref
10. Candler TP, Mahmoud O, Lynn RM, Majbar AA, Barrett TG, Shield JP. Treatment adherence and BMI reduction are key predictors of HbA1c 1 year after diagnosis of childhood type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom. Paediatr Diabetes 2018;19:1393-9. Crossref
11. Meyerovitch J, Zlotnik M, Yackobovitch-Gavan M, Phillip M, Shalitin S. Real-life glycemic control in children with type 2 diabetes: a population-based study. J Paediatr 2017;188:173-80.e1. Crossref
12. Ozaki R, Qiao Q, Wong GW, et al. Overweight, family history of diabetes and attending schools of lower academic grading are independent predictors for metabolic syndrome in Hong Kong Chinese adolescents. Arch Dis Child 2007;92:224-8. Crossref
13. Kong AP, Ko GT, Ozaki R, Wong GW, Tong PC, Chan JC. Metabolic syndrome by the new IDF criteria in Hong Kong Chinese adolescents and its prediction by using body mass index. Acta Paediatr 2008;97:1738-42. Crossref
14. Brady RP, Shah AS, Jensen ET, et al. Glycemic control is associated with dyslipidemia over time in youth with type 2 diabetes: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Pediatr Diabetes 2021;22:951-9. Crossref
15. American Diabetes Association Professional Practice Committee. 8. Obesity and weight management for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes: standards of medical care in diabetes—2022. Diabetes Care 2022;45(Supp 1):S113-24. Crossref
16. Amutha A, Mohan V. Diabetes complications in childhood and adolescent onset type 2 diabetes—a review. J Diabetes Complications 2016;30:951-7. Crossref
17. Maahs DM, Snively BM, Bell RA, et al. Higher prevalence of elevated albumin excretion in youth with type 2 than type 1 diabetes: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Diabetes Care 2007;30:2593-8. Crossref
18. Eppens MC, Craig ME, Cusumano J, et al. Prevalence of diabetes complications in adolescents with type 2 compared with type 1 diabetes. Diabetes Care 2006;29:1300-6. Crossref
19. Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium; Matsushita K, van der Velde M, et al. Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis. The Lancet 2010;375:2073-81. Crossref
20. Shoemaker A, Cheng P, Gal RL, et al. Predictors of loss to follow-up among children with type 2 diabetes. Horm Res Paediatr 2017;87:377-84. Crossref

Changes in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of human immunodeficiency virus–associated tuberculosis in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Aug;30(4):281–90 | Epub 16 Jul 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Changes in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of human immunodeficiency virus–associated tuberculosis in Hong Kong
Alan CK Chan, MRCP, FHKAM (Medicine)1; SS Huang, FHKCP, FHKAM (Medicine)1; KH Wong, FFPH, FHKAM (Medicine)2; CC Leung, FFPH, FHKAM (Medicine)3; MP Lee, MB, BS, FHKAM (Medicine)4; TY Tsang, MSc (LON), FRCP (Lond)5; WS Law, FHKCP, FHKAM (Medicine)1; LB Tai, MRCP, FHKAM (Medicine)1
1 Tuberculosis and Chest Service, Department of Health, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Special Preventive Programme, Department of Health, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Hong Kong Tuberculosis, Chest and Heart Diseases Association, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Department of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Dr Alan CK Chan (chikuen_chan@dh.gov.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–associated tuberculosis (TB) remains an important health challenge worldwide. Although TB prevalence has decreased in the general population, there is limited information regarding temporal trends in the incidence of HIV-associated TB in Hong Kong. There are also insufficient data regarding changes in clinical manifestation patterns among HIV-associated TB patients over time. This study aimed to describe temporal trends in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB in Hong Kong.
 
Methods: We retrospectively reviewed data regarding HIV-associated TB patients that were reported to the TB-HIV Registry of the Department of Health during the period 2007 to 2020. Trends of TB as a primary acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)–defining illness, as well as changes in demographic features and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB during this period were examined using Cochran–Armitage trend test.
 
Results: A decreasing trend was observed in the proportion of all reported cases of AIDS in which TB was a primary AIDS-defining illness during the study period. The proportions of female patients and patients with extrapulmonary involvement significantly increased, whereas the proportions of ever-smokers and patients with sputum smear positivity significantly decreased during the same period. A decreasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients with pulmonary TB in which the lower zone was the predominant site of lung parenchymal lesions. Among patients with a diagnosis of HIV infection before TB, an increasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy.
 
Conclusion: Important temporal changes were observed in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB. These results highlight the need for continued surveillance regarding the patterns of demographic features and clinical manifestations to inform policymakers when planning control strategies for HIV-associated TB.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • Tuberculosis (TB) has assumed a less important role as a primary acquired immunodeficiency syndrome–defining illness in Hong Kong over the 14 years of the study period.
  • Significant temporal changes were observed in the clinical manifestations of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–associated TB.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • Knowledge of the changing patterns of demographic features and clinical manifestations will help policymakers plan control strategies for HIV-associated TB.
  • Recognition of changes in clinical manifestations will also help optimise TB and HIV management and improve treatment outcome.
 
 
Introduction
The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996 led to a substantial decrease in the incidence of opportunistic infections among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in many regions.1 2 3 Nonetheless, HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) remains an important global health challenge. The World Health Organization estimated that 10.6 million people were living with TB worldwide in 2021, 6.7% of whom were living with HIV.4 In the same year, 1.6 million people died of TB, including 187 000 people who were living with HIV.4 The burden of HIV-associated TB considerably varies across countries and regions.5 6 The prevalence of HIV-associated TB in individual areas reportedly changes over time.7 8 9 Awareness of changes in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of patients with HIV-associated TB can help policymakers formulate timely relevant prevention and control measures. It can also help improve treatment outcomes for patients with HIV-associated TB.
 
In Hong Kong, the TB case notification rate has exhibited an overall decreasing trend over the past few decades.10 In 2021, the provisional number of TB cases reported to the Department of Health was 3741.11 The corresponding TB notification rate was 50.5 per 100 000 inhabitants, a substantial decrease from 84.1 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2006.11 The overall prevalence of HIV infection in the general adult population has remained low (<0.1%).12 The epidemiology and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB during the period 1996 to 2006 in Hong Kong have been reported.13 Notably, the report showed that TB had become an increasingly important acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)–defining illness in Hong Kong, surpassing Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia as the most common primary AIDS-defining illness in 2005; the two illnesses represented 39% and 31% of all such illnesses, respectively, in 2005.13 The presentation of HIV-associated TB is often atypical.13 Considering the declining prevalence of TB in the general population and accompanying decrease in TB transmission in Hong Kong, the implementation of strategies to enhance screening for latent TB infection, the increased use of molecular tests for TB diagnosis, and the expansion of HAART in recent years, we conducted a retrospective review of data regarding patients with HIV-associated TB that were reported to the TB-HIV Registry of the Department of Health during the period 2007 to 2020. We aimed to identify temporal trends in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB during that period.
 
Methods
We retrospectively reviewed data contained within the TB-HIV Registry, which captured information regarding nearly all cases of HIV-associated TB diagnosed in the Tuberculosis and Chest Service and Special Preventive Programme (SPP) under the Department of Health, as well as cases referred from regional hospitals of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, during the period 2007 to 2020. The details of data contained in the TB-HIV Registry, along with the criteria for TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness, were described in a previous report.13 There have been no changes in the criteria for TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness since the last report. Where necessary, both clinic records and hospital discharge records were reviewed. All data were imported into Epi Info14 and exported to statistical software SPSS (Windows version 26.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], US) for analysis. The Cochran–Armitage trend test in XLSTAT software (Lumivero, Denver [CO], US) was used to identify trends in the proportion of reported AIDS cases with TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness during the study period. The Cochran–Armitage trend test was also used to examine changes in demographic features and clinical manifestations during the same period. Where relevant, we compared the demographic features of patients reported to the TB-HIV Registry during the study period with the features of a historical cohort from the period 1996 to 200613 using the Chi squared test. P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.
 
This study was an extension of a previous study designed to evaluate the public health programme for HIV-associated TB in Hong Kong15; it did not constitute research on human participants. Throughout the review process, we implemented all reasonable precautions to protect the confidentiality of personal data and excluded personally identifiable information from the electronic database.
 
Results
Tuberculosis as a primary acquired immunodeficiency syndrome–defining illness
All 390 cases reported to the TB-HIV Registry from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2020 were included in this retrospective analysis. Information about whether TB constituted a primary AIDS-defining illness was available for 363 of 390 (93.1%) patients, where TB was listed as a primary AIDS-defining illness in 251 of those cases (69.1%). Overall, TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness represented a decreasing trend of 18.3% of 1375 reported AIDS cases during the period 2007 to 202012 (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P<0.001) [Fig], compared with 28.2% (192/680; Chi squared test, P<0.001) among the historical cohort of patients reported during the period 1996 to 2006.13
 

Figure. Tuberculosis as a primary acquired immunodeficiency syndrome–defining illness in Hong Kong among 390 cases reported to the Tuberculosis–Human Immunodeficiency Virus Registry from 2007 to 2020
 
Demographic features
Trends in demographic features, including age, sex, case category, ethnicity, residence, primary source of care (first presentation), and smoking status, for the 390 HIV-associated TB cases reported to the TB-HIV Registry during the study period are shown in Table 1. The proportion of female patients significantly increased whereas that of ever-smokers significantly decreased (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P=0.035 and P=0.029, respectively). No significant trends were detected in other variables examined. Additionally, the proportions of Chinese individuals and permanent residents were lower in the present cohort than in the historical cohort of 1996 to 200613 (260/390, 66.7% vs 152/190, 80.0%; Chi squared test, P=0.001 and 258/390, 66.2% vs 144/190, 75.8%; Chi squared test, P=0.018, respectively). The proportion of female patients was significantly higher in the present cohort than in the historical cohort13 (82/390, 21.0% vs 21/190, 11.1%; Chi squared test, P=0.003).
 

Table 1. Demographics and modes of presentation of patients reported to the Tuberculosis–Human Immunodeficiency Virus Registry from 2007 to 2020 (n=390)
 
Clinical manifestations
Trends in clinical manifestations, including symptoms, presence of pulmonary TB, radiographic features (for cases with abnormalities on chest radiographs), presence of extrapulmonary TB (EPTB), most common EPTB sites, sputum smear positivity status, drug susceptibility patterns, presence of TB risk factors, CD4 cell count at TB diagnosis, presence of other AIDS-defining illnesses at the time of co-infection, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) status (among patients with a diagnosis of HIV infection before TB), among the 390 TB cases are presented in Tables 2 and 3. The proportions of patients presenting with site-specific symptoms (other than chest-related symptoms) and with EPTB both significantly increased during the period 2007 to 2020 (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P=0.029 and P=0.008, respectively) [Table 2]. The most common EPTB sites were lymph nodes (42.8%), pleura (21.5%), and abdomen (13.8%). Among patients who underwent sputum smear tests, the proportion of patients with sputum smear positivity significantly decreased (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P=0.006) [Table 2]. Among patients with lung parenchymal lesions on chest radiographs, a decreasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients in which the lower zone was the predominant lesion site (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P=0.045) [Table 3]. Among patients with a diagnosis of HIV infection before TB, the proportion of patients receiving ART at TB diagnosis significantly increased (Cochran–Armitage trend test, P=0.003) [Table 2].
 

Table 2. Clinical manifestations of patients reported to the Tuberculosis–Human Immunodeficiency Virus Registry from 2007 to 2020 (n=390)
 

Table 3. Radiographic features of patients with abnormalities on chest radiographs reported to the Tuberculosis–Human Immunodeficiency Virus Registry from 2007 to 2020
 
Discussion
This study revealed a decreasing trend in the proportion of reported AIDS cases with TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness during the period 2007 to 2020. The overall proportion (18.3%) was also lower than the proportion (28.2%) in the historical cohort of cases reported during the period 1996 to 2006.13 The proportions of Chinese individuals and permanent residents were lower, whereas the proportion of female patients was higher, in our cohort compared with the historical cohort.13 The proportions of female patients and patients with extrapulmonary involvement significantly increased, whereas the proportions of ever-smokers and the proportion with sputum smear positivity among pulmonary TB cases significantly decreased during the period 2007 to 2020. A decreasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients with pulmonary TB in which the lower zone was the predominant site of lung parenchymal lesions. Among patients with a diagnosis of HIV infection before TB, an increasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients receiving ART.
 
Decreasing trend of tuberculosis as an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome–defining illness
In Hong Kong, TB is considered an AIDS-defining illness when the disease is extrapulmonary. Pulmonary TB and cervical lymph node TB are considered AIDS-defining illnesses only when the CD4 cell count at the time of TB diagnosis is <200/μL, as recommended by the Scientific Committee of the Advisory Council on AIDS in 1994.16 Since then, there have been no changes in the criteria for TB as an AIDS-defining illness among individuals infected with HIV. The decreasing trend in Hong Kong regarding the proportion of reported AIDS cases with TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness might be due to decreased community transmission of TB through better TB control, the expansion of HAART since its introduction in 1997, and (perhaps to a lesser extent) increased acceptance of testing for latent TB infection and preventive treatment for TB among HIV-infected individuals since the early 2000s. Similar decreasing trends related to HAART-induced improvements in immune status among HIV-infected individuals have also been identified during studies conducted in some other countries.7 9 17 In an observational, retrospective study of AIDS cases included in the Barcelona AIDS register between 1994 and 2005, decreases were observed regarding the incidence of TB as an AIDS-defining illness among both native and immigrant populations.7 Another study examining trends in the incidence of AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses over a 25-year period in Brazil showed a reduction in TB incidence from 1991-1993 to 2009-2012.9 A prospective cohort study of participants in the HIV Outpatient Study at 12 HIV clinics within the US indicated that TB incidence decreased after HAART introduction.17 Conversely, among participants in the HOMER cohort study (HAART Observational Medical Evaluation and Research) conducted during the period 1996 to 2007 in Canada, no statistically significant trends were observed in the proportion of cases with TB as the AIDS-defining illness, probably because the small number of TB cases reported in each time period limited the ability to detect significant changes in the reported cases.18 Another study examining AIDS notification data in Australia during the period 1993 to 2000 revealed that the proportion of AIDS cases with TB as the AIDS-defining illness was higher during 1996 to 2000 (post-HAART era) than during 1993 to 1995 (pre-HAART era); the authors attributed this difference to the increasing proportion of Australian patients with AIDS who had been born in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia during the 1990s, among whom the risk of TB was considerably higher.19 Further studies examining trends in TB as an AIDS-defining illness, as well as location-specific factors that may influence such trends in the post-HAART era, are warranted to facilitate control strategies for HIV-associated TB.
 
Changes in demographic features and their implications
Further attention is needed regarding the observation of higher proportions of non-Chinese individuals (mostly Asians and Africans, who have much higher TB incidence than the rate among Hong Kong Chinese individuals) and non-permanent residents of Hong Kong in the 2007-2020 cohort compared with the historical 1996-2006 cohort. Similar findings of higher incidences of AIDS-associated TB in foreign-born populations from countries with much higher TB incidence compared with the native population have been reported on the basis of some studies conducted in developed countries.7 20 21 These observations highlight the need for TB screening and prophylaxis for people living with HIV who were born in countries with a high background prevalence of TB.
 
Intriguingly, we observed an increasing trend in the proportion of women during the period 2007 to 2020. The reason for this increase is unclear; it may be related to changes in the societal roles of men and women that influence exposure risk. The role of an increased proportion of EPTB (reportedly associated with female sex and observed throughout our cohort, as discussed below) requires further investigation.
 
The proportion of ever-smokers significantly decreased during the period 2007 to 2020, consistent with the findings of some studies conducted in the US.22 23 In an analysis of patients from a HIV surveillance system in the US, the prevalence of current smoking declined from 37.6% in 2009 to 33.6% in 2014.22 In another prospective cohort study that examined smoking trends among HIV-positive patients in the US, a decline in the annual prevalence of current smoking from 1984 to 2012 was also reported; however, disparities were noted according to race, ethnicity, and education.23 Nonetheless, because smoking increases HIV-related and non–HIV-related morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV, smoking cessation interventions remain an essential component of routine care for such individuals.
 
Changes in clinical manifestations
The predominance of the lower zone as the site of lung parenchymal lesions on chest radiographs is a relatively common feature among patients with HIV-associated pulmonary TB, according to our previous report on the 1996 to 2006 cohort13 and some other reports.24 25 The present study showed that the lower zone was less frequently the predominant site of lung parenchymal lesions during the period 2007 to 2020. The proportion of patients in the 2007 to 2020 cohort with the lower zone as the predominant site (16.7%) was also lower compared with the proportion of patients in the historical 1996 to 2006 cohort (32.4%).13 This difference may be related to the higher CD4 cell count at TB diagnosis among patients in the current cohort compared with patients in the historical cohort (median CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis: 100/μL and 78/μL, respectively). Nonetheless, lower zone involvement was present in approximately one-sixth of pulmonary TB cases reported during 2007 and 2020. A high index of suspicion is required for the accurate and timely diagnosis of pulmonary TB in people living with HIV.
 
A decreasing trend was observed in the proportion of patients with sputum smear positivity during the period 2007 to 2020. The overall proportion of patients with sputum smear positivity in the 2007 to 2020 cohort (36.6%) was also lower than the proportion in the historical cohort of 1996 to 2006 (42.2%)13; it was similar to the proportion identified during a population database study in South Korea (36.4%).26 These results suggest that TB cases have been diagnosed at increasingly earlier stages due to enhanced active TB screening efforts among people living with HIV, as well as the increased use of molecular testing that enhanced the diagnosis of smear-negative cases in Hong Kong. These results highlight the need for continued TB screening efforts and early detection of TB among people living with HIV.
 
Our findings indicate that EPTB became more common among HIV-associated TB patients during the period 2007 to 2020. The overall proportion of patients with EPTB was also higher in the present cohort compared to that reported in a local study that examined risk factors for mortality in an earlier cohort (2006 to 2015) and that in the historical 1996 to 2006 cohort (71.0%, 64.9%,15 and 62.6%,13 respectively). These differences may have arisen through enhanced diagnosis of EPTB with the increased use of molecular testing in Hong Kong. An increasing trend of extrapulmonary involvement among TB patients has also been reported in some other studies, although such studies are mostly population-based.27 28 29 Few reports have been published regarding temporal trends in EPTB specifically among HIV-associated TB patients.30 Further studies are needed to examine these trends and associated factors.
 
Strengths and limitations
Strengths of this study included its use of cohort data from the TB-HIV Registry covering a relatively long period (14 years) to study temporal changes in the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of HIV-associated TB. However, some limitations should be considered when interpreting the results of this study. First, the TB-HIV Registry may not capture all HIV-associated TB cases—some patients encountered in the SPP were not referred to a chest clinic but underwent anti-TB treatment in private clinics or other countries. The total number of HIV-associated TB cases in the HIV Surveillance Report of SPP was approximately 10% higher than the number in the TB-HIV Registry; the difference mostly comprised non-permanent residents temporarily staying in Hong Kong. Nonetheless, data from the HIV Surveillance Report showed a similar decreasing trend in TB as a primary AIDS-defining illness during the study period (data not shown). Second, this study utilised a retrospective design, and data present in the database of the TB-HIV Registry may be incomplete. Information regarding some parameters such as case category, co-morbidities, and CD4 cell count was unavailable for some patients. To overcome this limitation, we traced and reviewed relevant clinical records from chest clinics and hospitals when necessary. Therefore, we expect minimal bias due to missing data. Finally, the sample size may have led to insufficient statistical power for detecting temporal changes in some less common parameters.
 
Conclusion
This study showed that TB has become less important as a primary AIDS-defining illness in Hong Kong over the 14 years of the study period. Nonetheless, it remains the second most common primary AIDS-defining illness after P jirovecii pneumonia. Important temporal changes were also observed in the patterns of demographic features and clinical manifestations. Continued surveillance regarding the patterns of demographic features and clinical manifestations is needed to inform policymakers during the formulation of TB control strategies to improve patient care and treatment outcomes among people living with HIV. This surveillance is especially important in situations such as the coronavirus disease 2019 era, during which resources from TB programmes may be diverted to management of the global pandemic.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: ACK Chan, SS Huang.
Acquisition of data: ACK Chan, SS Huang.
Analysis or interpretation of data: ACK Chan, SS Huang.
Drafting of the manuscript: ACK Chan, SS Huang.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: KH Wong, CC Leung, MP Lee, TY Tsang, WS Law, LB Tai.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Acknowledgement
The authors thank all of their colleagues in the Tuberculosis and Chest Service and the Special Preventive Programme of the Department of Health who provided assistance and support to make this paper possible. The authors also thank Ms Ida KY Mak, Research Officer at the Tuberculosis and Chest Service of the Department of Health, for her dedicated efforts in maintaining the Tuberculosis–Human Immunodeficiency Virus Registry and assisting with the analysis.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
This research was a retrospective analysis of observational data routinely collected in a local Registry as part of the ongoing evaluation of the public health programme for human immunodeficiency virus–associated tuberculosis in Hong Kong. Approval for the evaluation and exemption from obtaining informed patient consent has been granted by the Ethics Committee of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government (Ref No.: L/M 416/2017).
 
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Diagnostic accuracy of a prehospital electrocardiogram rule-based algorithm for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: results from a population-wide project

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Aug;30(4):271–80 | Epub 25 Jul 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE  CME
Diagnostic accuracy of a prehospital electrocardiogram rule-based algorithm for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: results from a population-wide project
Joanne HY Lai, MB, BS, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)1; CT Lui, MB, BS, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)1; Total WT Chan, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)2; Ben CP Wong, MB, ChB, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)2; Matthew SH Tsui, MB, BS, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)3; Ben KA Wan, MB, BS, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)4,5; KL Mok, MB, BS, FHKAM (Emergency Medicine)4,5
1 Department of Accident and Emergency, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Accident and Emergency, Tin Shui Wai Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Department of Accident and Emergency, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Department of Accident and Emergency, Ruttonjee & Tang Shiu Kin Hospitals, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Fire Services Department, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Dr Joanne HY Lai (joannelaihy@fellow.hkam.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: This study reviewed the diagnostic accuracy of the prehospital electrocardiogram (PHECG) rule-based algorithm for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) universally utilised in Hong Kong.
 
Methods: This prospective observational study was linked to a population-wide project. We analysed 2210 PHECGs performed on patients who presented to the emergency medical service (EMS) with chest pain from 1 October to 31 December 2021. The diagnostic accuracy of the adopted rule-based algorithm, the Hannover Electrocardiogram System, was evaluated using the adjudicated blinded rating by two investigators as the primary reference standard. Diagnostic accuracy was also evaluated using the attending emergency physician’s diagnosis and the diagnosis on hospital discharge as secondary reference standards.
 
Results: The prevalence of STEMI was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]=4.2%-6.1%). Using the adjudicated blinded rating by investigators as the reference standard, the rule-based PHECG algorithm had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% CI=88.2%-97.8%), specificity of 87.9% (95% CI=86.4%-89.2%), positive predictive value of 29.4% (95% CI=24.8%-34.4%), and negative predictive value of 99.7% (95% CI=99.3%-99.9%) [all P<0.05].
 
Conclusion: The rule-based PHECG algorithm that is widely used in Hong Kong demonstrated high sensitivity and fair specificity for the diagnosis of STEMI.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • The prehospital electrocardiogram (PHECG) diagnostic algorithm universally utilised in Hong Kong had high sensitivity for diagnosing ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in a population-wide cohort of patients with chest pain.
  • One in eight ECGs showed false-positive results for STEMI; the leading causes were early repolarisation, left bundle branch block, and extreme tachycardia.
  • Evolving ECG patterns, subtle ST-segment elevation, and STEMI equivalents were responsible for false-negative diagnoses.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • Primary diversion of STEMI patients to centres capable of primary percutaneous coronary intervention should not be implemented solely based on the algorithm’s ECG diagnosis.
  • ST-elevation myocardial infarction can be reasonably excluded by the PHECG diagnostic algorithm.
  • Physicians should be aware of STEMI equivalents that are not identified by the algorithm.
 
 
Introduction
Heart disease is the third leading cause of death in Hong Kong. In 2019, an average of approximately 10.2 people died from coronary heart disease each day.1 International guidelines recommend prehospital 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome who present to emergency medical services (EMS).2 3 Prehospital triage with direct transfer to the cardiac catheterisation laboratory for primary percutaneous coronary intervention is a strategy adopted by various healthcare systems to reduce reperfusion time in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).4 5 Previous studies have investigated the diagnostic performances of prehospital electrocardiograms (PHECGs) for STEMI by various automated algorithms,6 7 8 9 10 trained onsite EMS personnel,11 12 and emergency department (ED) physicians remotely interpreting the tele-transmitted ECGs13; the findings have implications for policymakers involved in planning systems of care to minimise inappropriate resource mobilisation.
 
In Hong Kong, the Hospital Authority, the local public healthcare service, and Hong Kong Fire Services Department, the primary EMS provider, jointly launched the Prehospital 12-Lead Electrocardiogram for Chest Pain Protocol on 1 February 2021. The Protocol covers the catchment areas of all EDs in Hong Kong and serves a population of 7.41 million. This study utilised data from a territory-wide audit of the Protocol to determine the diagnostic performance of the PHECG algorithm for STEMI.
 
Methods
Study design and setting
This prospective observational study analysed data from the territory-wide audit project regarding the Prehospital 12-Lead Electrocardiogram for Chest Pain Protocol, led by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Coordinating Committee in Accident and Emergency. The Protocol was designed to include all patients with complaints of chest pain, excluding those <12 years of age; in cardiac arrest; with unmanageable airway or breathing; a Glasgow Coma Scale score of ≤13; a first systolic blood pressure of <90 mm Hg; a respiratory rate of <10 or >29 breaths per minute; or refusal or inability to give consent.
 
Ambulances were equipped with 12-lead ECG machines capable of automatic algorithm-based diagnosis. The selected machine model was a corpuls3 Monitor and Defibrillator (GS Elektromedizinische Geräte G Stemple GmbH, Kaufering, Germany), with the telemedicine application corpuls.mission (GS Elektromedizinische Geräte G Stemple GmbH, Kaufering, Germany). The selected ECG algorithm was the ECG diagnostic algorithm of the Hannover ECG System (Corscience GmbH & Co KG, Erlangen, Germany).
 
Upon encountering a patient who met the Protocol’s criteria, the ambulance personnel performed a 12-lead ECG on scene or in the stationary ambulance compartment. The ECG was immediately analysed by the computer algorithm and classified as ‘STEMI’, ‘Not STEMI’, or ‘N/A’ (not interpretable due to suboptimal ECG quality). Additional ECGs were performed as necessary to improve quality. The ECG(s) were tele-transmitted to the ED serving the particular catchment area for reading and interpretation by the ED attending physician. If the ECG was classified as ‘STEMI’ by the computer algorithm, the EMS personnel also directly called to alert the ED. The ED prepared the resuscitation room for patient arrival if the ECG was classified as STEMI by the ED physician.
 
Study population and data collection
This study adhered to the STARD (Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies) 2015 reporting guideline. Patients with PHECGs performed in accordance with the Protocol throughout Hong Kong were prospectively recruited from 1 October to 31 December 2021.
 
Prehospital ECGs performed and tele-transmitted during the study period were obtained from corpuls.mission’s online database and matched to clinical data from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System and Accident and Emergency Information System (Information Technology and Health Informatics Division, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong). Electrocardiograms without matching patient data and those classified as ‘N/A’ by the algorithm were excluded from the analysis.
 
Three reference standards were used to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the computer algorithm. The first reference standard, the primary outcome, was adjudicated blinded rating of the ECG. Each ECG was de-identified and independently interpreted as ‘STEMI’, ‘Not STEMI’ or ‘Not interpretable’ by two investigators: an emergency physician with ≥5 years of experience in emergency medicine practice and a specialist in Emergency Medicine. Electrocardiograms for which there was disagreement between the interpretations of the two blinded raters were classified according to the blinded interpretation of an adjudicator (a second Emergency Medicine specialist). The diagnosis of STEMI was based on the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction14 and the modified Sgarbossa criteria for left bundle branch block or ventricular paced rhythm.15 16 ST-elevation myocardial infarction mimics17 and STEMI equivalents, according to the 2022 ACC Expert Consensus Decision Pathway on the Evaluation and Disposition of Acute Chest Pain in the Emergency Department,18 were regarded as ‘Not STEMI’. ‘Not interpretable’ ECGs were those with substantial motion artefacts, wavering baseline, or disconnected lead(s); these ECGs were excluded from the analysis.
 
The second reference standard was the ED attending physician’s diagnosis, which considered the patient’s clinical condition, along with additional ECGs and other investigations performed upon arrival in the ED. Patients without ECGs performed in the ED were excluded from the analysis.
 
The third reference standard was the diagnosis on hospital discharge from the index admission. We excluded patients who died in the ED without an established diagnosis, who developed STEMI after admission, or were discharged with acknowledgement of medical advice and no definitive diagnosis.
 
Interrater agreement analysis was performed in three dimensions, namely, between the two blinded raters, between the adjudicated blinded rating and the ED diagnosis, and between the adjudicated blinded rating and the diagnosis on hospital discharge. If there was disagreement between the adjudicated blinded rating and the ED diagnosis, the prehospital and ED ECGs were reviewed by the principal investigator to differentiate between dynamic change or true disagreement. Dynamic change was defined as the lack of ST-segment elevation and ECG criteria fulfilment on the initial PHECG, with subsequent evidence on serial ECG performed in the ED.
 
False-positive and false-negative ECGs were reviewed and classified by the principal investigator. The following categories of ECG morphology were determined based on criteria described in existing literature: Brugada pattern,19 early repolarisation,20 left bundle branch block or paced rhythm not matching STEMI criteria,15 16 left ventricular hypertrophy,21 pericarditis,22 and ventricular ectopics.23
 
Statistical analysis
Continuous variables were presented as mean ± standard deviation and were analysed with the independent t test. Categorical variables were reported as absolute frequencies and percentages and were analysed with the Chi squared test or Fisher’s exact test. Interrater agreement regarding ECG diagnosis was analysed using Cohen’s kappa. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were derived from 2 × 2 contingency tables and analysed with the Chi squared test.
 
The threshold for statistical significance was regarded as P<0.05. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (Windows version 26.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], US).
 
Results
Baseline characteristics
During the study period, 2801 PHECGs were performed, one for each patient who presented with chest pain. Of these ECGs, 2437 were matched to electronic patient records. After the exclusion of 103 ECGs classified as ‘N/A’ by the computer algorithm, 2334 ECGs were included in the analysis (Fig 1).
 

Figure 1. Patient selection for diagnostic accuracy analysis
 
The characteristics of the study population are presented in Table 1. Overall, 62.9% of the patients were men. The mean age of male patients, female patients, and both sexes were 63.9 years, 74.1 years, and 67.7 years, respectively. In total, 83.6% of patients were placed on stretchers upon arrival at the ED. Furthermore, 8.2% of patients were institutionalised in residential homes. Of the ECGs, 42.4% were performed during 0800 to 1559 hours, 35.4% were performed during 1600 to 2359 hours, and 22.3% were performed during 0000 to 0759 hours. A total of 405 (17.4%) PHECGs were classified as STEMI by the algorithm.
 

Table 1. Characteristics of the study population
 
Primary outcome
The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy based on the adjudicated blinded rating. The prevalence of STEMI was 5.1% (Table 2). There was good interrater observed agreement (96.9%) between the two blinded ECG assessors. Cohen’s kappa was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.81-0.88; P<0.05) [Table 3]. The algorithm had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% CI=88.2%-97.8%), specificity of 87.9% (95% CI=86.4%-89.2%), positive predictive value of 29.4% (95% CI=24.8%-34.4%), negative predictive value of 99.7% (95% CI=99.3%-99.9%), positive likelihood ratio of 7.8 (95% CI=6.9-8.8), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.06 (95% CI=0.03-0.13) [all P<0.05] (Table 2).
 

Table 2. Diagnostic performance of the prehospital electrocardiogram algorithm according to respective reference standards
 

Table 3. Analysis of interrater agreement
 
Secondary outcomes
Secondary outcomes were the algorithm’s diagnostic accuracy with reference to the ED attending physician’s diagnosis and to the diagnosis on hospital discharge.
 
Substantial agreement was observed between the diagnosis based on the adjudicated blinded rating and these two reference standards. Discrepancies in agreement between the adjudicated blinded rating of ECGs and these two reference standards reflected the presence of dynamic ECG changes. Observed agreement between the adjudicated blinded rating and ED physician’s diagnosis was 97.1%, with Cohen’s kappa of 0.69. Excluding patients with dynamic ECG changes in the ED, the observed agreement was 98.2% and Cohen’s kappa was 0.78. Observed agreement between the adjudicated blinded rating and final discharge diagnosis was 97.5%, with Cohen’s kappa of 0.74. Excluding patients with dynamic ECG changes in the ED, the observed agreement was 98.4% and Cohen’s kappa was 0.80 (Table 3). The diagnostic performance based on the three reference standards and the analysis of interrater agreement are summarised in Tables 2 and 3, respectively.
 
Characteristics of false-positive electrocardiograms
The 255 false-positive ECGs with the adjudicated blinded rating as the reference standard were reviewed and characterised as shown in Figure 2. The leading causes were early repolarisation (n=97; 38.0%), left bundle branch block (n=40; 15.7%), and tachycardia of >140 beats per minute (n=34; 13.3%). Excluding ECGs with suboptimal quality (classified as ‘N/A’ by the algorithm and ‘Not interpretable’ according to adjudicated blinded rating), false-positive ECGs due to artefacts constituted 8.6% (n=22).
 

Figure 2. Electrocardiogram features of false-positive electrocardiograms with the adjudicated blinded rating as the reference standard (n=255)
 
Characteristics of false-negative electrocardiograms
Using the diagnosis on hospital discharge as the reference standard, 22 STEMI cases were missed by the algorithm (Fig 3). Thirteen (59.1%) of the false-negative ECGs were due to the development of dynamic ECD changes in the ED; four (18.2%) of these had subtle ST-segment elevation. ST-segment elevation in lead augmented vector right and the STEMI equivalent morphology of de Winter’s T wave were noted in two (9.1%) ECGs each. One ECG was classified as ‘Not interpretable’ according to the adjudicated blinded rating because of substantial artefacts.
 

Figure 3. Electrocardiogram features of false-negative electrocardiograms with diagnosis on hospital discharge as the reference standard (n=22)
 
Discussion
Implications on prehospital care systems for ST-elevation myocardial infarction
This prospective observational study examined the diagnostic performance of a rule-based PHECG algorithm universally utilised in Hong Kong, based on three levels of reference standards. The primary outcome, adjudicated blinded rating, closely reflects diagnostic performance without the addition of patient clinical history and presentation or any other diagnostic aids. The American Heart Association recommends three levels of PHECG diagnosis, namely, EMS interpretation, computerised algorithm diagnosis, and ECG transmission for remote interpretation.24 However, in healthcare systems such as the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong, EMS are trained to perform but not interpret PHECGs. Thus, it is important to understand reliance on the computerised algorithm using the benchmark of physician-based remote interpretation; these data can guide the establishment and improvement of care systems.
 
One in eight of the PHECGs in this study showed false-positive results. Considering the fair specificity and positive predictive value of only 29.4% for the automated ECG diagnostic programme, this high false-positive rate reflected limitations in guiding prehospital treatment and streamlining care systems (eg, prehospital diversion to percutaneous coronary intervention–capable centres or prehospital triage for direct transfer to a cardiac catheterisation laboratory). A hybrid two-step ECG interpretation model, involving a physician’s remote (ie, telemedicine-based) interpretation of ECGs that are classified as STEMI by the computerised algorithm, could be adopted to minimise overactivation and ensure prudent use of healthcare resources. Nonetheless, the algorithm exhibited good sensitivity in terms of identifying STEMI patients. Its high negative predictive value allowed STEMI to be reasonably excluded based on ECG results. Although remote PHECG interpretation is considered relatively accurate, it generally results in STEMI misdiagnosis rates of 6% to 8%.13 Therefore, we included secondary outcomes, namely, the algorithm’s diagnostic performance based on the ED attending physician’s diagnosis and the final discharge diagnosis; we assessed interrater agreement between these reference standards. We adopted an operational approach focused on the ‘appropriateness of cardiac catheterisation laboratory activation’, rather than a strictly patient-centred approach based on primary percutaneous coronary intervention findings or cardiac biomarkers.
 
Diagnostic performance varies across electrocardiogram machine models and algorithms
The inclusion of three reference standards was intended to address the heterogeneous estimates of PHECG diagnostic performance for STEMI in existing literature. Prior studies have been based on various reference standards, including blinded physician rating,25 ED attending physician’s diagnosis,6 26 hospital discharge diagnosis,7 and the appropriateness of coronary angiography activation.8 The results have varied according to STEMI prevalence in the study population, as well as the reference standard, ECG machine, and computerised algorithm. Using ED clinical diagnosis as the reference standard, a single-centre pilot study in Hong Kong by Cheung et al6 utilising the X Series Monitor/Defibrillator and Inovise 12L Interpretive Algorithm (Zoll Medical Corporation, Chelmsford [MA], US) demonstrated a low sensitivity (53.8%) and high specificity (99.6%). Bhalla et al26 utilised LIFEPAK 12 monitors (Physio-Control, Redmond [WA], US) equipped with a Marquette 12SL ECG analysis programme (General Electric Company, Fairfield [CT], US) to evaluate PHECGs from 100 STEMI patients and 100 control participants; they found a similarly low sensitivity (58%) and very high specificity (100%). Bosson et al7 examined ECGs obtained with the LIFEPAK 15 monitor (Physio-Control, Inc, Minneapolis [MN], US) and analysed using the University of Glasgow 12-Lead ECG Analysis Programme (version 27); their results showed 92.8% sensitivity and 98.7% specificity, based on the reference standard of appropriateness for emergency coronary angiography.7 The prevalence of STEMI was much lower in their study than in our study (1.4%7 vs 5.1% [Table 2]) because their dataset also included PHECGs performed for symptoms other than chest pain. Using the same ECG machine model as the aforementioned study,7 Fakhri et al8 tested an automated analysis method with a high-specificity STEMI configuration. In a carefully selected STEMI population, the sensitivity and specificity were 69.8% and 51.5%, respectively, based on discharge diagnosis.8 A meta-analysis conducted by Tanaka et al27 suggested that computer-assisted ECG interpretation had a high pooled specificity (95.4%; 95% CI=87.3%-98.4%) with an acceptable estimated number of false-positive results, whereas the pooled sensitivity was relatively low (85.4%; 95% CI=74.1%-92.3%), for identifying STEMI on PHECG. All of these studies utilised ECG machines and diagnostic algorithms that differed from our method, emphasising that diagnostic performance varies across models; evaluations of specific ECG machines and algorithms should be conducted by individual healthcare systems to suit their operational needs.
 
Major patterns of false-positive and falsenegative electrocardiograms
The Hannover ECG System algorithm utilised in our study was one of nine computer programmes investigated in the international Common Standards for Quantitative Electrocardiography Diagnostic Study,28 using clinical diagnosis as the reference standard. This statistics-based algorithm exhibited one of the highest sensitivities (79.0%) for detecting myocardial infarction compared with all algorithms combined (72.2%); its sensitivity also was similar to that of the combined independent ratings of eight cardiologists (80.3%). However, its ability to correctly classify normal ECGs (86.6%) was lower than that of the combined ratings of cardiologists (97.1%) and the combined algorithms (96.7%). Our findings are consistent with the results of the Common Standards for Quantitative Electrocardiography Diagnostic Study. The presence of artefacts contributed to 8.6% of false-positive ECGs; this rate could be improved by enhancing ECG technique. The major patterns of misdiagnosis were early repolarisation (38.0%), left bundle branch block (15.7%), and tachycardia of >140 beats per minute (13.3%) [Fig 2]. Artefacts on ECG were responsible for the largest proportion of false-positive ECGs8; they contributed a smaller proportion in our dataset because we excluded ECGs considered ‘Not interpretable’ by the algorithm or blinded raters. Early repolarisation remained a leading cause of false-positive ECGs, and existing consensus papers on early repolarisation may help guide future algorithm development.20 29 Further collaboration with the software provider to optimise the algorithm may enhance its accuracy.
 
Among cases of STEMI missed by the algorithm using diagnosis on hospital discharge as the reference standard, more than half were caused by ECG changes after patient arrival in the ED. False-negative ECGs due to subtle ST-segment elevation represented only 3.45% of all STEMI patients. Remote physician interpretation of these PHECGs would likely be equivocal and uncertain. It presumably would not be beneficial to adjust the algorithm to correct this margin of error, considering the potential for additional false-positives. However, it might be useful to refine the algorithm for enhanced detection of STEMI equivalents, which were missed in the current cohort.
 
The rise of artificial intelligence
Although the diagnostic limitations of rule-based algorithms are recognised, Zhao et al9 described an artificial intelligence diagnostic algorithm that showed promising results (96.8% sensitivity and 99% specificity) using coronary angiography findings as the reference standard. The potential role of artificial intelligence in PHECG diagnosis merits further exploration to increase accuracy.
 
Paradigm shift in classifying myocardial infarction
Meyers et al30 proposed a new paradigm of occlusion myocardial infarction (OMI) vs non-OMI, which they compared with the conventional STEMI vs non-STEMI paradigm. Occlusion myocardial infarction refers to type 1 myocardial infarction that involves acute total or near-total occlusion of a major epicardial coronary vessel with insufficient collateral circulation, causing acute infarction. Meyers et al30 showed that 38% of OMI patients did not meet ECG-based STEMI criteria, as stated in the 4th Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction.14 Compared with OMI patients who met STEMI criteria, patients not meeting the criteria experienced significant delays in cardiac catheterisation but exhibited similar adverse outcome profiles. These findings highlight the need to re-evaluate classification strategies for acute coronary syndrome, with a focus on rapidly recognising this underserved and poorly understood subgroup of patients who would benefit from emergent reperfusion therapy. Future research should emphasise identifying ECG features of OMI beyond the STEMI criteria.
 
Limitations
First, 13% of PHECGs were not matched to electronic patient records, resulting in the loss of data for interpretation. Second, during adjudicated blinded rating of the ECGs, STEMI equivalents were not included in the definition of STEMI because the algorithm was not designed to include these characteristics. This exclusion differs from real-world scenarios in which the recognition of STEMI equivalents would prompt ED physicians to implement STEMI management. Third, this study evaluated a single rule-based algorithm combined with a single ECG machine model utilised by a single urban EMS service provider serving a predominantly ethnic Chinese population. Fourth, intraobserver variability was not assessed for each ECG reviewer. Finally, ECGs considered ‘Not interpretable’ by ECG reviewers due to substantial artefacts were excluded from data analysis, which might lead to underestimation regarding the contributions of artefacts to false positivity.
 
Conclusion
In this territory-wide study, a rule-based PHECG algorithm demonstrated good sensitivity and fair specificity for the diagnosis of STEMI.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: JHY Lai, CT Lui.
Acquisition of data: JHY Lai, TWT Chan, BCP Wong.
Analysis or interpretation of data: JHY Lai, CT Lui.
Drafting of the manuscript: JHY Lai.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: CT Lui, TWT Chan, BCP Wong, MSH Tsui, BKA Wan, KL Mok.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
The research was approved by the New Territories West Cluster Research Ethics Committee of Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (Ref No.: NTWC/REC/21097). The requirement for patient consent was waived by the Committee because the study was conducted within a preexisting prehospital clinical service.
 
References
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2. O’Gara PT, Kushner FG, Ascheim DD, et al. 2013 ACCF/AHA guideline for the management of ST-elevation myocardial infarction: executive summary: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. J Am Coll Cardiol 2013;61:485-510. Crossref
3. Ibánez B, James S, Agewall S, et al. 2017 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute myocardial infarction in patients presenting with ST-segment elevation [in English, Spanish]. Rev Esp Cardiol (Engl Ed) 2017;70:1082. Crossref
4. Kontos MC, Gunderson MR, Zegre-Hemsey JK, et al. Prehospital activation of hospital resources (PreAct) ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI): a standardized approach to prehospital activation and direct to the catheterization laboratory for STEMI recommendations from the American Heart Association’s mission: lifeline program. J Am Heart Assoc 2020;9:e011963. Crossref
5. Brunetti ND, De Gennaro L, Correale M, et al. Prehospital electrocardiogram triage with telemedicine near halves time to treatment in STEMI: a meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis of non-randomized studies. Int J Cardiol 2017;232:5-11. Crossref
6. Cheung KS, Leung LP, Siu YC, et al. Prehospital 12-lead electrocardiogram for patients with chest pain: a pilot study. Hong Kong Med J 2018;24:484-91. Crossref
7. Bosson N, Sanko S, Stickney RE, et al. Causes of prehospital misinterpretations of ST elevation myocardial infarction. Prehosp Emerg Care 2017;21:283-90. Crossref
8. Fakhri Y, Andersson H, Gregg RE, et al. Diagnostic performance of a new ECG algorithm for reducing false positive cases in patients suspected acute coronary syndrome. J Electrocardiol 2021;69:60-4. Crossref
9. Zhao Y, Xiong J, Hou Y, et al. Early detection of ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction by artificial intelligence with 12-lead electrocardiogram. Int J Cardiol 2020;317:223-30. Crossref
10. Goebel M, Vaida F, Kahn C, Donofrio JJ. A novel algorithm for improving the diagnostic accuracy of prehospital STelevation myocardial infarction. Prehosp Disaster Med 2019;34:489-96. Crossref
11. Le May MR, Dionne R, Maloney J, et al. Diagnostic performance and potential clinical impact of advanced care paramedic interpretation of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in the field. CJEM 2006;8:401-7. Crossref
12. Ducas RA, Wassef AW, Jassal DS, et al. To transmit or not to transmit: how good are emergency medical personnel in detecting STEMI in patients with chest pain? Can J Cardiol 2012;28:432-7. Crossref
13. Tanguay A, Lebon J, Brassard E, Hébert D, Bégin F. Diagnostic accuracy of prehospital electrocardiograms interpreted remotely by emergency physicians in myocardial infarction patients. Am J Emerg Med 2019;37:1242-7. Crossref
14. Thygesen K, Alpert JS, Jaffe AS, et al. Fourth universal definition of myocardial infarction (2018). J Am Coll Cardiol 2018;72:2231-64. Crossref
15. Meyers HP, Limkakeng AT Jr, Jaffa EJ, et al. Validation of the modified Sgarbossa criteria for acute coronary occlusion in the setting of left bundle branch block: a retrospective case-control study. Am Heart J 2015;170:1255-64. Crossref
16. Smith SW, Dodd KW, Henry TD, Dvorak DM, Pearce LA. Diagnosis of ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the presence of left bundle branch block with the ST-elevation to S-wave ratio in a modified Sgarbossa rule. Ann Emerg Med 2012;60:766-76. Crossref
17. Wang K, Asinger RW, Marriott HJ. ST-segment elevation in conditions other than acute myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med 2003;349:2128-35. Crossref
18. Writing Committee; Kontos MC, de Lemos JA, et al. 2022 ACC Expert Consensus Decision Pathway on the evaluation and disposition of acute chest pain in the emergency department: a report of the American College of Cardiology Solution Set Oversight Committee. J Am Coll Cardiol 2022;80:1925-60. Crossref
19. Wilde AA, Antzelevitch C, Borggrefe M, et al. Proposed diagnostic criteria for the Brugada syndrome: consensus report. Circulation 2002;106:2514-9. Crossref
20. Patton KK, Ellinor PT, Ezekowitz M, et al. Electrocardiographic early repolarization: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation 2016;133:1520-9. Crossref
21. Armstrong EJ, Kulkarni AR, Bhave PD, et al. Electrocardiographic criteria for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy. Am J Cardiol 2012;110:977-83. Crossref
22. Bischof JE, Worrall C, Thompson P, Marti D, Smith SW. ST depression in lead aVL differentiates inferior ST-elevation myocardial infarction from pericarditis. Am J Emerg Med 2016;34:149-54. Crossref
23. Mond HG, Haqqani HM. The electrocardiographic footprints of ventricular ectopy. Heart Lung Circ 2020;29:988-99. Crossref
24. Ting HH, Krumholz HM, Bradley EH, et al. Implementation and integration of prehospital ECGs into systems of care for acute coronary syndrome: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association Interdisciplinary Council on Quality of Care and Outcomes Research, Emergency Cardiovascular Care Committee, Council on Cardiovascular Nursing, and Council on Clinical Cardiology. Circulation 2008;118:1066-79. Crossref
25. Wilson RE, Kado HS, Percy RF, et al. An algorithm for identification of ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients by emergency medicine services. Am J Emerg Med 2013;31:1098-102. Crossref
26. Bhalla MC, Mencl F, Gist MA, Wilber S, Zalewski J. Prehospital electrocardiographic computer identification of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Prehosp Emerg Care 2013;17:211-6. Crossref
27. Tanaka A, Matsuo K, Kikuchi M, et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy to identify ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction on interpretations of prehospital electrocardiograms. Circ Rep 2022;4:289-97. Crossref
28. Willems JL, Abreu-Lima C, Arnaud P, et al. The diagnostic performance of computer programs for the interpretation of electrocardiograms. N Engl J Med 1991;325:1767-73. Crossref
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30. Meyers HP, Bracey A, Lee D, et al. Comparison of the ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) vs. NSTEMI and occlusion MI (OMI) vs. NOMI paradigms of acute MI. J Emerg Med 2021;60:273-84. Crossref

Transurethral water vapour thermal therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia under local anaesthesia alone: initial experience in Chinese patients

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Jun;30(3):227–32 | Epub 10 May 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Transurethral water vapour thermal therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia under local anaesthesia alone: initial experience in Chinese patients
KL Lo, MB, ChB, FRCSEd; Alex Mok, MB, ChB; Ivan CH Ko, MB, ChB; Steffi KK Yuen, MB, BS, FRCSEd; Peter KF Chiu, MB, BS, FRCSEd; CF Ng, MD, FRCSEd
SH Ho Urology Centre, Department of Surgery, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Prof CF Ng (ngcf@surgery.cuhk.edu.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: This study evaluated the perioperative and early postoperative outcomes of transurethral water vapour thermal therapy (WVTT) under local anaesthesia alone for benign prostatic enlargement in Chinese patients.
 
Methods: This retrospective review of transurethral WVTT for benign prostatic enlargement focused on 50 Chinese patients who exhibited clinical indications (acute retention of urine or symptomatic lower urinary tract symptoms due to benign prostatic enlargement) for surgical treatment between June 2020 and December 2021 in Hong Kong. Exclusion criteria included active urinary tract problems and urological malignancies. Follow-up was conducted at 3 months postoperatively.
 
Results: The median patient age was 71.5 years. The mean preoperative prostatic volume was 56.7 mL. The mean operation time was 25.1 minutes. All procedures were performed under local anaesthesia alone. The mean pain scores for transrectal ultrasound probe insertion, transperineal local anaesthesia injection, and transurethral WVTT were 2, 5, and 4, respectively. Forty-nine patients (98%) were discharged on the same day with a urethral catheter. Forty-eight patients (96%) successfully completed a trial without catheter within 3 weeks postoperatively. Five patients (10%) had unplanned hospital admission within 30 days postoperatively due to surgical complications (Clavien–Dindo grade 1).
 
Conclusion: Transurethral WVTT, an advanced surgical treatment for benign prostatic enlargement, is a safe procedure that relieves lower urinary tract symptoms with minimal hospital stay. It can be performed in an office-based setting under local anaesthesia, maximising utilisation of the surgical theatre.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • This is the first study concerning the efficacy and safety profile of water vapour thermal therapy (WVTT) in Asian patients. It can relieve lower urinary tract symptoms with minimal hospital stay.
  • This is the first study of WVTT in an office-based setting under local anaesthesia, maximising utilisation of the surgical theatre.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • Water vapour thermal therapy is an effective and safe alternative for patients who have high surgical risk of benign prostatic enlargement under general or spinal anaesthesia.
 
 
Introduction
Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is characterised by a non-malignant growth in the prostate gland that can cause a wide range of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). These symptoms can greatly reduce a patient’s quality of life (QoL) and may eventually lead to acute retention of urine (AROU).
 
Current standard treatments for BPH include conservative, pharmacological, and surgical approaches. For patients who fail to successfully complete a trial without catheter (TWOC) after AROU secondary to BPH, surgical intervention remains the main therapeutic approach. Surgical treatment options for BPH have evolved from electrosurgical resection to enucleation, ablation of the prostate, and other techniques.1 Transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP), first performed over 90 years ago, continues to be regarded as the gold standard for the treatment of BPH with prostatic volumes of 30 to 80 mL.2 Although TURP results in statistically significant improvements in symptom scores and maximum urinary flow rate (Qmax), it has some limitations. Perioperative morbidities and complications of TURP include infection, bleeding, urinary retention, incontinence, urethral stricture, erectile dysfunction, and ejaculatory dysfunction. Additionally, TURP requires general or spinal anaesthesia and postoperative hospitalisation. Through technological advancements, several minimally invasive procedures (eg, UroLift and prostatic artery embolisation) have been developed for specific groups of patients with BPH to minimise the aforementioned limitations.3 4 5 Among these new-generation BPH surgical approaches, transurethral water vapour thermal therapy (WVTT) provides some of the best surgical outcomes.
 
Transurethral WVTT uses the thermodynamic principle of convective energy transfer, whereas other techniques (eg, transurethral microwave thermotherapy or transurethral needle ablation of the prostate) involve conductive heat transfer.6 The thermal therapy system consists of a generator with a radiofrequency power supply that creates water vapour from sterile water, as well as a disposable transurethral delivery device. The tip of the delivery device contains an 18-gauge needle with 12 small emitter holes circumferentially arranged for water vapour dispersion into the targeted prostatic tissue. The release of thermal energy causes tissue necrosis. The most important characteristic of this technique is that, during treatment of the transitional zone, energy is only deposited within this specific region of the prostate. Reviews of histological evidence and magnetic resonance images have revealed that thermal lesions are limited to the transitional zone without affecting the peripheral zone, bladder, rectum, or striated urinary sphincter.7 8 At 6 months after treatment, the total prostatic volume is reduced by 28.9% and the resolution of thermal lesions, as determined by gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, is almost complete.8
 
A pilot study showed that transurethral WVTT can serve as a safe and effective treatment in men with LUTS due to BPH.8 In the first multicentre, randomised controlled study, 197 men were enrolled and randomised in a 2:1 ratio to treatment with the transurethral WVTT or a sham procedure.9 The sham procedure consisted of rigid cystoscopy with sound effects that mimicked the thermal treatment. The primary efficacy endpoint was met at 3 months: relief of symptoms, measured as a change in International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), was detected in 50% of patients in the thermal treatment group compared with 20% of patients in the sham procedure group (P<0.0001). In the thermal treatment group, the Qmax increased by 63%—from 9.9 mL/s to 16.1 mL/s (P<0.0001)—after 3 months. This clinical benefit was sustained throughout the study period, with a 54% improvement at the 12-month follow-up. In the most recent update regarding 5-year outcomes, the improvement in voiding (as measured by IPSS and uroflowmetry) had persisted for 5 years, with a surgical retreatment rate of 4.4%.10
 
Thus far, studies of transurethral WVTT for BPH have mainly focused on Caucasian populations. To provide information regarding its tolerability and effectiveness in the Chinese population, this study investigated the safety profile and efficacy of transurethral WVTT under local anaesthesia alone for BPH among Chinese patients in Hong Kong.
 
Methods
Study protocol
This retrospective study investigated transurethral WVTT for benign prostatic enlargement. The inclusion criteria included Chinese ethnicity and clinical indications for surgical treatment, including AROU or symptomatic LUTS due to benign prostatic enlargement. Exclusion criteria included active urinary tract problems such as infection, bleeding disorder, bladder pathologies (eg, bladder stones and neurogenic bladder), and urethral stricture, as well as urological malignancies including bladder and prostate cancer.
 
Intervention
The procedure was performed with perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis. Patients were placed in the dorsal lithotomy position. After local anaesthesia, cystoscopy was performed to assess the anatomy of the bladder and prostate. A specialised handpiece with an optical lens was inserted under direct visual guidance into the prostate channel. Treatment began with the needle tip visually positioned and inserted approximately 1 cm distal to the bladder neck. Each treatment lasted for 9 seconds. After 9 seconds, an audible signal was produced by the system and the treatment needle was retracted. The handpiece was then repositioned 1 cm distal to the previous treatment site; repositioning was repeated until reaching a treatment site immediately proximal to the verumontanum. During each water vapour injection, the majority of the targeted tissue was treated. All treatment cycles involving one lateral lobe were completed as a group to utilise residual heat from prior treatments involving that lobe. Subsequently, the contralateral lateral lobe was treated in a similar manner. An enlarged median lobe could be treated by positioning the needle at a 45-degree angle towards the targeted lobe using the same technique. After the procedure, a 14-Fr Foley catheter was inserted. A 1-week course of antibiotic treatment was administered after surgery.10 Patients were discharged with the urethral catheter and readmitted for a TWOC at approximately 1 to 2 weeks after surgery. Upon satisfactory completion of the TWOC, patients were scheduled for follow-up at 3 months postoperatively.
 
Statistical analysis
Preoperative parameters and perioperative outcomes were collected and tabulated using SPSS software (Windows version 28.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], United States). Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the demographic data and perioperative patient characteristics. Paired sample t tests were used to compare continuous variables with normal distributions; the Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare continuous variables with skewed distributions, and the Chi squared test was used to compare categorical variables. Two-sided P values of <0.05 were considered statistically significant.
 
Results
Demographics
Between June 2020 and December 2021, 50 eligible patients were included in this study. The median age was 71.5 years (interquartile range [IQR]=64-75.25). In terms of indications, 27 patients (54%) had symptomatic BPH, 13 patients (26%) had AROU with a urethral catheter, and 10 patients (20%) had AROU without a urethral catheter. Of the 50 patients, 39 (78%) were categorised as American Society of Anesthesiologists class 2, whereas the remaining 11 were categorised as class 3. Most patients (68%) did not use any antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. The numbers of patients using aspirin, clopidogrel, dual antiplatelet therapy, and apixaban were 11 (22%), three (6%), one (2%), and one (2%), respectively. All antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents were temporarily discontinued before the operation (Table 1).
 

Table 1. Use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy (n=50)
 
Operation
The mean preoperative prostatic volume was 56.7 mL (standard deviation [SD]=24.6; range, 29.2-119.0). The mean operation time was 25.1 minutes (SD=8.4). All procedures were conducted under local anaesthesia alone. Lignocaine 1% with adrenaline was injected into the periprostatic space using a transperineal approach. The mean pain scores for transrectal ultrasound probe insertion, transperineal local anaesthesia injection, and transurethral WVTT were 2, 5, and 4, respectively.
 
Postoperative course
Only one patient (2%) required bladder irrigation for 5 days postoperatively; that patient had been taking apixaban before surgery. All other patients were discharged on the same day with a urethral catheter. A TWOC was planned at around 1 week (for the AROU without urethral catheter or symptomatic BPH group) to 2 weeks (for the AROU with urethral catheter group) after surgery. Forty-eight patients (96%) in our study successfully completed a TWOC within 3 weeks postoperatively; the median time was 7 days (IQR=7-14). The median successful TWOC times were 14 days (IQR=8-21) for the AROU with urethral catheter group and 7 days (IQR=7-12) for the AROU without urethral catheter or symptomatic BPH group. Two patients (4%) with an initially unsuccessful TWOC began temporary clean intermittent self-catheterisation; they were subsequently weaned from this management approach on postoperative days 40 and 45, respectively.
 
Five patients (10%) had unplanned hospital admission within 30 days postoperatively due to surgical complications (Clavien–Dindo grade 1). The reasons for readmission are listed in Table 2.
 

Table 2. Reasons for readmission (n=50)
 
There were significant differences in preoperative and 3-month postoperative parameters, including prostate-specific antigen level, post-void residual urine (PVRU) level, Qmax, IPSS, and QoL assessment. Table 3 shows the medians and IQRs of these data. As indicated in Table 4, the mean differences in PVRU, Qmax, IPSS, and QoL score were -41 mL (SD=107), +6.6 mL/s (SD=5.4), -10.9 points (SD=5.8), and -2.2 points (SD=1.5), respectively.
 

Table 3. Descriptive statistics of preoperative and postoperative parameters
 

Table 4. Mean differences of parameters 3 months after the procedure
 
No patients in this study exhibited de novo retrograde ejaculation or stress urinary incontinence at 3 months postoperatively. However, there were three reported cases (6%) of new-onset erectile dysfunction postoperatively. All three patients had temporary erectile dysfunction that resolved within 6 months postoperatively without requiring medication.
 
Discussion
Our study is the first to focus on the application of transurethral WVTT (Rezūm therapy) under local anaesthesia alone among Chinese men with BPH. Our results demonstrated clinically significant outcomes comparable to other treatments for BPH. Transurethral WVTT provided effective symptomatic improvement, as illustrated by a decrease in PVRU of 41 mL, an increase in Qmax of 6.6 mL/s, and a substantial decrease in IPSS of 10.9 at the 3-month follow-up (Table 4). These results were also comparable to outcomes in a recent international study of this therapy.10 The postoperative outcome was favourable, with a successful TWOC rate of 96% within 3 weeks postoperatively. Moreover, all patients with urethral catheters before surgery successfully completed a TWOC after transurethral WVTT. The median successful TWOC time was 7 days postoperatively. However, compared with data from other studies (4.1 to 5 days),11 12 our centre had a longer duration of catheterisation, which could be explained by our centre’s policy of scheduling a TWOC on postoperative days 7 and 14 for patients without and with a urethral catheter before surgery, respectively. Five patients were readmitted within 30 days after surgery due to haematuria, post-obstructive diuresis, recurrent AROU, and urinary tract infection with AROU (Table 2). All were uneventfully discharged without further readmission; none of them developed postoperative urinary incontinence. Three patients reported de novo erectile dysfunction, higher than the rate observed in the recent international study.10 However, the rate remained significantly lower than that associated with TURP.13 Considering the minimally invasive nature of this procedure, it could revolutionise future management of BPH.
 
The current management algorithm for BPH does not include transurethral WVTT as a first-line treatment due to the relative lack of evidence regarding its mid- to long-term efficacy and safety.2 However, it has considerable potential in the management of BPH because of unique advantages compared with TURP. Transurethral WVTT can be an office-based procedure with a short learning curve. If a surgeon completes 10 cases of transurethral WVTT under supervision, he/she will become independent from a surgical trainer. Because BPH is a particularly common urological disease and often requires surgical management,14 the minimally invasive nature of transurethral WVTT can help reduce the number of patients waiting for operations in overcrowded hospital facilities. The results of our study provide initial evidence that transurethral WVTT is well-tolerated among patients under local anaesthesia alone. We did not administer any sedation to the patients because they might move during the operation, resulting in a high risk of water vapour leakage. Such leakage would lead to inadequate treatment.
 
In Hong Kong, total health costs represent about 19% of the total government budget,15 and public in-patient health costs in 2021/2022 constituted 32% of total health costs.16 Operation time is one of the most important factors affecting in-patient costs. According to a meta-analysis by Mamoulakis et al17 in 2009, the mean operation time for TURP ranged from 39 to 79 minutes. In the present study, the mean operation time was 25.1 minutes. Thus far, no studies have directly assessed the cost-effectiveness of transurethral WVTT in the Chinese population. In the United States, a cost-effectiveness analysis of six therapies for BPH, published in 2018,18 showed that transurethral WVTT was more cost-effective than other minimally invasive therapies, such as combination medical treatment and UroLift. Moreover, McVary et al10 reported that the 5-year retreatment rate after transurethral WVTT was 4.4%, which was significantly lower than that after UroLift therapy (13.6%) reported by Roehrborn et al.5
 
Notably, transurethral WVTT leads to lower incidences of bleeding, urgency, urge incontinence, and ejaculatory dysfunction compared with TURP.19 The more favourable side-effect profile has resulted in considerable interest concerning its potential to replace TURP as the first-line surgical treatment in the future. No head-to-head trials have compared other surgical modalities with transurethral WVTT. Indirect comparison through a meta-analysis revealed that TURP outperformed transurethral WVTT by providing greater relief of LUTS,19 although it carried a greater cost and higher complication rate.18 Although pharmacological treatment is currently the first-line treatment for moderate to severe LUTS, it is associated with complications such as dizziness, postural hypotension, reduced libido, and erectile dysfunction. Gupta et al20 compared standard medical therapy with transurethral WVTT using cohort data from the MTOPS trial (Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms); they showed that transurethral WVTT had superior outcomes in terms of QoL, IPSS, and prostatic volume reduction. Considering these advantages, transurethral WVTT can be regarded as a first-line treatment option for patients with symptomatic LUTS who prefer a short operation, rather than lifelong pharmacological treatment.
 
Limitations
There were some limitations in this study. First, a substantial proportion of our patients had been catheterised preoperatively (74%) and thus could not undergo uroflowmetry studies before the operation. Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the associated community isolation policy, some other patients did not complete uroflowmetry studies. However, all IPSS data were able to be collected via telemedicine, ensuring the inclusion of those data in the analysis. Second, our study did not have a sufficient number of patients to allow subgroup analysis of patients with different indications for transurethral WVTT; future studies should explore treatment outcomes among patients with different indications for transurethral WVTT. Third, our inclusion period was prolonged, partly due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and partly because transurethral WVTT mainly was regarded as a self-financed item in our centre; these aspects led to some difficulty in accumulating a sufficient number of patients for analysis. Finally, this study used a single-arm design with a relatively short follow-up period; additional studies are needed to assess long-term treatment outcomes and retreatment rates after transurethral WVTT under local anaesthesia alone.
 
Conclusion
Transurethral WVTT is a safe and effective treatment for benign prostatic hyperplasia in the Chinese population. It can also be conducted in an office setting under local anaesthesia alone, avoiding use of the surgical theatre and its associated costs.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: KL Lo, CF Ng.
Acquisition of data: KL Lo.
Analysis or interpretation of data: A Mok, ICH Ko.
Drafting of the manuscript: KL Lo, A Mok, ICH Ko.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
As an editor of the journal, CF Ng was not involved in the peer review process. Other authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
This research was approved by the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong–New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee, Hong Kong (Ref No.: 2019.662). The patients were treated in accordance with the tenets of the Declaration of Helsinki and have provided written informed consent for all treatments and procedures and consent for publication.
 
References
1. Kahokehr A, Gilling PJ. Landmarks in BPH—from aetiology to medical and surgical management. Nat Rev Urol 2014;11:118-22. Crossref
2. Gravas S, Cornu JN, Gacci M, et al. EAU guidelines on management of non-neurogenic male lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), incl. benign prostatic obstruction (BPO). 2022. Available from: https://d56bochluxqnz.cloudfront.net/documents/full-guideline/EAU-Guidelines-on-Non-Neurogenic-Male-LUTS-2022.pdf. Accessed 8 May 2024.
3. Teoh JY, Chiu PK, Yee CH, et al. Prostatic artery embolization in treating benign prostatic hyperplasia: a systematic review. Int Urol Nephrol 2017;49:197-203. Crossref
4. Abt D, Hechelhammer L, Müllhaupt G, et al. Comparison of prostatic artery embolisation (PAE) versus transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) for benign prostatic hyperplasia: randomised, open label, non-inferiority trial. BMJ 2018;361:k2338. Crossref
5. Roehrborn CG, Barkin J, Gange SN, et al. Five-year results of the prospective randomized controlled prostatic urethral L.I.F.T. study. Can J Urol 2017;24:8802-13.
6. Magistro G, Chapple CR, Elhilali M, et al. Emerging minimally invasive treatment options for male lower urinary tract symptoms. Eur Urol 2017;72:986-97. Crossref
7. Dixon CM, Rijo Cedano E, Mynderse LA, Larson TR. Transurethral convective water vapor as a treatment for lower urinary tract symptomatology due to benign prostatic hyperplasia using the Rezūm(®) system: evaluation of acute ablative capabilities in the human prostate. Res Rep Urol 2015;7:13-8. Crossref
8. Mynderse LA, Hanson D, Robb RA, et al. Rezūm system water vapor treatment for lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia: validation of convective thermal energy transfer and characterization with magnetic resonance imaging and 3-dimensional renderings. Urology 2015;86:122-7. Crossref
9. McVary KT, Gange SN, Gittelman MC, et al. Minimally invasive prostate convective water vapor energy ablation: a multicenter, randomized, controlled study for the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia. J Urol 2016;195:1529-38. Crossref
10. McVary KT, Gittelman MC, Goldberg KA, et al. Final 5-year outcomes of the multicenter randomized sham-controlled trial of a water vapor thermal therapy for treatment of moderate to severe lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia. J Urol 2021;206:715-24. Crossref
11. Dixon CM, Cedano ER, Pacik D, et al. Two-year results after convective radiofrequency water vapor thermal therapy of symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. Res Rep Urol 2016;8:207-16. Crossref
12. Rowaiee R, Akhras A, Lakshmanan J, Sikafi Z, Janahi F. Rezum therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia: Dubai’s initial experience. Cureus 2021;13:e18083. Crossref
13. Pavone C, Abbadessa D, Scaduto G, et al. Sexual dysfunctions after transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP): evidence from a retrospective study on 264 patients. Arch Ital Urol Androl 2015;87:8-13. Crossref
14. Lee YJ, Lee JW, Park J, et al. Nationwide incidence and treatment pattern of benign prostatic hyperplasia in Korea. Investig Clin Urol 2016;57:424-30. Crossref
15. Hong Kong SAR Government. The 2023-24 Budget. Budget speech. Available from: https://www.budget.gov.hk/2023/eng/budget30.html. Accessed 5 May 2024.
16. Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government. Hong Kong’s domestic health accounts (DHA) 2021/22. Available from: https://www.healthbureau.gov.hk/statistics/en/dha.htm. Accessed 5 May 2024.
17. Mamoulakis C, Ubbink DT, de la Rosette JJ. Bipolar versus monopolar transurethral resection of the prostate: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Eur Urol 2009;56:798-809. Crossref
18. Ulchaker JC, Martinson MS. Cost-effectiveness analysis of six therapies for the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms due to benign prostatic hyperplasia. Clinicoecon Outcomes Res 2018;10:29-43. Crossref
19. Tanneru K, Jazayeri SB, Alam MU, et al. An indirect comparison of newer minimally invasive treatments for benign prostatic hyperplasia: a network meta-analysis model. J Endourol 2021;35:409-16. Crossref
20. Gupta N, Rogers T, Holland B, Helo S, Dynda D, McVary KT. Three-year treatment outcomes of water vapor thermal therapy compared to doxazosin, finasteride and combination drug therapy in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia: cohort data from the MTOPS trial. J Urol 2018;200:405-13. Crossref

Amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase for prediction of biliary atresia in cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder: a retrospective study using a validated analytical platform and local reference range

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Jun;30(3):218–26 | Epub 5 Jun 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase for prediction of biliary atresia in cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder: a retrospective study using a validated analytical platform and local reference range
Tommy YT Cheung, MB, ChB1,2; Natalie KL Wong, MB, ChB, MRCOG3; Daljit Singh Sahota, PhD3; Shreenidhi Ranganatha Subramaniam, MB, ChB1; SL Lau, MB, ChB, MRCOG3; X Zhu, MB, BS, PhD3; WT Lui, MPhil3; Edwin KW Chan, FHKAM (Surgery), FRCSEd (Paed)4; Yvonne KY Kwok, PhD3; KW Choy, PhD3; TY Leung, MD, FRCOG3; Michael HM Chan, FHKCPath, FHKAM (Pathology)5; Felix CK Wong, MB, BS, FRCPA5,6 #; YH Ting, FHKAM (Obstetrics and Gynaecology), FRCOG3 #
1 Department of Chemical Pathology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Chemical Pathology, Princess Margaret Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
4 Division of Paediatric Surgery and Paediatric Urology, Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
5 Department of Chemical Pathology, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
6 Division of Chemical Pathology, Department of Pathology, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
# Equal contribution
 
Corresponding author: Dr YH Ting (tingyh@cuhk.edu.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: The level of amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase (AFGGT) may help identify biliary atresia (BA) in cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder (NVFGB). This study aimed to validate a serum/plasma matrix–based gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) assay for amniotic fluid (AF) samples, establish a local gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range, and evaluate the efficacy of AFGGT for predicting fetal BA in pregnancies with NVFGB using the constructed reference range.
 
Methods: The analytical performance of a serum/ plasma matrix–based GGT assay on AF samples was evaluated using a Cobas c502 analyser. Amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase levels in confirmed euploid singleton pregnancies (16+0 to 22+6 weeks of gestation) were determined using the same analyser to establish a local gestational age–specific reference range (the 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). This local reference range was used to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of AFGGT level <2.5th percentile for identifying fetal BA in euploid pregnancies with NVFGB.
 
Results: The serum/plasma matrix–based GGT assay was able to reliably and accurately determine GGT levels in AF samples. Using the constructed local gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range, the NPV and PPV of AFGGT level <2.5th percentile for predicting fetal BA in pregnancies with NVFGB were 100% and 25% (95% confidence interval=0, 53), respectively.
 
Conclusion: In pregnancies with NVFGB, AFGGT level ≥2.5th percentile likely excludes fetal BA. Although AFGGT level <2.5th percentile is not diagnostic of fetal BA, fetuses with AFGGT below this level should be referred for early postnatal investigation.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • A serum/plasma matrix–based gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) assay reliably and accurately determines GGT levels in amniotic fluid samples.
  • Using amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase (AFGGT) level <2.5th percentile to identify biliary atresia (BA) in cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder (NVFGB), the negative and positive predictive values were 100% and 25%, respectively.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • A local gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range (the 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles) is available for clinical use.
  • In pregnancies with NVFGB, AFGGT level ≥2.5th percentile likely excludes fetal BA; although AFGGT level <2.5th percentile is not diagnostic of BA, it is an important indicator of the need for early postnatal investigation.
 
 
Introduction
Non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder (NVFGB) in the second trimester is a rare condition affecting 0.1% of pregnancies.1 It might be a transient finding—the gallbladder is visible later in pregnancy or after birth in 70% of cases.2 Persistent NVFGB may be associated with benign conditions (eg, gallbladder agenesis); it may also be a manifestation of serious disorders, such as biliary atresia (BA), cystic fibrosis, or chromosomal abnormalities.3 Although chromosomal abnormalities and cystic fibrosis can be identified prenatally via chromosomal microarray (CMA) and sequencing of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene, respectively, it remains challenging to diagnose BA before birth because no diagnostic prenatal test is currently available. Biliary atresia is a devastating condition and is the leading indication for liver transplantation in childhood.4 Prenatal suspicion of BA allows prompt postnatal assessment and early diagnosis, permitting timely intervention via Kasai hepatoportoenterostomy and resulting in improved outcomes.4
 
The measurement of gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) in amniotic fluid (AF) has been suggested as a method for prenatal detection of BA. This transferase is secreted by the fetal biliary tract, passes into the intestines, and is ultimately excreted into the amniotic cavity. It becomes detectable in AF at around 14 weeks of gestation upon maturation of the intestinal villi and opening of the cloacal membrane.5 6 7 Biliary tract obstructions, such as BA, hinder the passage of GGT into the intestines and AF, leading to reduced levels of amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase (AFGGT). Muller et al5 first reported extremely low AFGGT levels in three fetuses with extrahepatic bile duct obstruction at 18 to 19 weeks of gestation; they concluded that a low AFGGT level could be a useful indicator of BA. Subsequently, Burc et al,6 Dreux et al,8 and Bardin et al9 reported similar findings. Nevertheless, existing platforms for analysis of GGT in serum or plasma samples have not been thoroughly validated for use with AF samples. Furthermore, an appropriate reference range, essential for the interpretation of AFGGT results, is difficult to establish due to the limited availability of AF samples from normal pregnancies. Thus, publications regarding gestational age–specific reference ranges for AFGGT have been scarce.
 
Burc et al6 established reference values for five AF enzymes (AFEs), including GGT, using the Hitachi 911 analyser (Roche Diagnostics). Despite a large sample size of 508, no separate reference range was constructed for each gestational age from 20 to 24 weeks, limiting clinical use of the findings.6 Bardin et al7 established another reference range for AFGGT, from 16 to 22 weeks, using the Integra 800 analyser (Roche). However, the numbers of samples at weeks 16, 21, and 22 were small and had relatively large standard deviations, precluding clinical application.7 Both reference ranges were derived from Caucasian populations. Because the GGT level in adult blood varies according to ethnicity,10 it is likely that AFGGT levels also vary according to ethnicity; thus, there is a need to establish a local AFGGT reference range. Furthermore, both previous reference ranges covered the 5th to 95th percentiles. A wider reference range, from the 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles, would allow greater flexibility in selecting cut-off values for clinical application.
 
In this study, we aimed to validate a serum/plasma matrix–based GGT assay for AF samples, establish a local gestational age–specific reference range for AFGGT (from the 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles), and evaluate the efficacy of AFGGT for predicting fetal BA in pregnancies with NVFGB using the constructed reference range.
 
Methods
This retrospective study used archived AF supernatant obtained from amniocentesis procedures that had been conducted to exclude fetal chromosomal abnormalities between January 2012 and December 2021. All amniocenteses were performed under ultrasound guidance with aseptic technique by fetal-maternal medicine specialists who also performed detailed ultrasound examinations to document the presence or absence of fetal structural abnormalities. All AF samples were centrifuged at 100 g for 10 minutes; 1 mL of the resulting supernatant was stored at -80℃ in plain aliquots without additives (Axygen; BioGene, Union City [CA], United States), whereas the pellet was used for either CMA and/or karyotyping by G-banding analysis. The cytogenetic laboratory information system recorded the ultrasound findings, indication for amniocentesis, gestational age at amniocentesis, and CMA and/or karyotype results. Pregnancy and fetal outcomes, including the presence of any abnormalities at birth or autopsy findings, were recorded in each patient’s electronic records.
 
Patients
Archived AF samples with known fetal and pregnancy outcomes, taken at 16+0 to 22+6 weeks of gestation from singleton pregnancies with a euploid fetus (confirmed by CMA or karyotype) during the period from January 2018 to December 2020, were retrieved to establish a gestational age–specific reference range for GGT. Pregnancies with fetal chromosomal, gastrointestinal, or hepatobiliary anomalies (particularly BA) polyhydramnios, or oligohydramnios were excluded to eliminate potential confounding effects of these conditions.
 
Non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder was incidentally detected during fetal morphology scans in pregnancies with risk factors for fetal abnormalities because the fetal gallbladder was not assessed in low-risk routine anomaly scans, in accordance with the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology guideline.11 It was defined as failure to visualise the fetal gallbladder on two targeted ultrasound examinations performed 1 week apart. Isolated NVFGB was defined as NVFGB in the absence of other abnormal ultrasound findings. Pregnant women were counselled regarding possible differential diagnoses and offered amniocentesis for chromosomal analysis, as well as repeated ultrasound scans until the fetal gallbladder was visible. After birth, babies with persistent NVFGB were referred to paediatricians for hepatobiliary ultrasound and liver function tests. If the gallbladder was visible during prenatal scans, paediatricians did not order further tests in the absence of clinical suspicion. We followed the progress of all babies until the time of writing, using electronic hospital records for those delivered in public hospitals and phone calls for those delivered in private hospitals. With parental consent, post-mortem examinations were arranged in pregnancies terminated for serious associated fetal abnormalities.
 
Validation and analytical performance evaluation
Amniotic fluid samples were removed from -80℃ storage in batches, thawed, and equilibrated to room temperature immediately prior to analysis. Gamma-glutamyl transferase levels were determined using an International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine–standardised L-gamma-glutamyl-3-carboxy-4-nitroanilide (GGCNA) enzymatic colorimetric assay on a Cobas c502 analyser (Roche, Basel, Switzerland). Internal quality controls were performed before and after each batch.
 
Details of the AFGGT assay validation and analytical performance, including matrix effects; linearity; intra- and inter-run precision at various GGT levels; interference due to haemolysis, icterus, and lipaemia; and sample stability, are summarised in online supplementary Appendix 1.
 
Establishment of reference range
An AFGGT reference range was developed using the Generalised Additive Models for Location (μ), Scale (υ) and Shape (σ) [GAMLSS] package in R statistical software (version 3.3.2; R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). All GGT values were transformed to their natural log equivalent before model construction; the final model balanced between percentile smoothness, goodness-of-fit, and simplicity. Model fit was assessed using the generalised Akaike information criterion and by inspection of residuals with quantile-quantile plots for all measurements, detrending of quantile-quantile plots, and comparison of empirical percentiles to fitted percentiles. Empirical percentiles were determined for comparative purposes by grouping GGT levels according to gestational age (in weeks).
 
The final model was used to determine reference values for the 2.5th, 5th, 50th, 95th (z = ± 1.645), and 97.5th percentiles (z = ± 1.964). Percentiles were determined using the expression μ × (1 + zpυσ)1/υ, where zp is the percentile of interest and μ, υ, and σ are dependent on the time covariate, gestational age. The GGT reference range was constructed using R statistical software and Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond [WA], United States).
 
We estimated a priori that 293 AFGGT measurements were needed to achieve a standard error of 10% of the gestational age–specific standard deviation for the 2.5th and 97.5th (z=1.96) reference percentiles, assuming that the standard error of the percentile of interest is expressed as a multiple of standard deviation using the formula , where each gestational age between 16+0 and 22+6 weeks has a minimum of 42 measurements.
 
Performance evaluation
Measured levels of AFGGT in pregnancies with NVFGB were transformed to their gestational age–specific percentile values using the final model. We then determined the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of AFGGT level <2.5th percentile for identifying BA in euploid pregnancies with NVFGB.
 
Results
Validation and analytical performance
The performance of the GGT assay using AF is summarised in online supplementary Appendix 2. Validation studies indicated that the GGCNA enzymatic colorimetric assay for determination of GGT activity in AF had linearity, precision, recovery, interference profiles, and stability comparable to the values reported for measurement of GGT in plasma and serum samples. The verified analytical measurement range was 10 to 1200 U/L. No significant interference was observed in the presence of 0.25 g/dL haemoglobin, 103 μmol/L bilirubin, or 16.8 mmol/L triglyceride. The limits of haemolysis/icterus/lipaemia indices above which interference occurred were significantly higher than the degrees of those indices in all analysed samples.
 
Gestational age–specific reference range
A database search identified 518 stored amniotic samples (502 [97%] Chinese and 16 [3%] other Asian ethnicities) suitable for use in establishing a local gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range. The median number of samples per week was 65; there were 2 weeks with <42 samples (27 and 28 samples in the 16th and 19th week of gestation, respectively). The online supplementary Table lists the regressed values of AFGGT levels according to percentile for each week of gestation.
 
The simplest best-fit model indicated a linear relationship between natural log-transformed GGT and gestational age. Table 1 and the online supplementary Figure show the final smoothing equations for median, coefficient of variation, and skewness, along with gestational age–specific smoothed percentile curves and values of AFGGT for our local population. Residuals of the final model had a mean skewness of 0 and a variance of 1; they were almost mesokurtic, with kurtosis values close to 3.
 

Table 1. Smoothing equations determined by modelling for median, coefficient of variation, and skewness used to compute z-scores and percentiles of the natural logarithm of gestational age–specific gamma-glutamyl transferase level
 
Performance evaluation
The database search identified 32 pregnancies with NVFGB from 2012 to 2021, of which 18 had an available AF sample (four isolated NVFGB and 14 non-isolated NVFGB). There were no cases of cystic fibrosis. Nine cases were excluded from analysis, including five with chromosomal abnormalities, one with renal hypoplasia and oligohydramnios, one with hydrops and polyhydramnios, and two in which the biliary tract anatomy could not be identified. The nine remaining cases for analysis included four with isolated NVFGB and five with non-isolated NVFGB (Table 2). The median gestational age at amniocentesis was 21.0 weeks (interquartile range=20.7-22.1).
 

Table 2. Characteristics of the nine cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder included in the current study
 
The Figure depicts the AFGGT levels in the nine pregnancies for analysis compared with our local gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range. Four cases had AFGGT level <2.5th percentile, including one with BA (AFGGT level of 27 U/L at 20+3 weeks) and three with transient non-visualisation (AFGGT levels of 32, 68, and 37 U/L at 20+0, 20+6, and 22+2 weeks, respectively). Five had AFGGT level ≥2.5th percentile, including one with gallbladder agenesis and four with transient non-visualisation (Table 2). Using AFGGT level <2.5th percentile as the cut-off, the NPV and PPV for identifying fetal BA in pregnancies with NVFGB were 100% and 25% (95% confidence interval=0, 53), respectively (Table 3). Repeated analysis using AFGGT level <5th percentile or the reference ranges from Burc et al6 or Bardin et al7 yielded identical results.
 

Figure. Amniotic fluid gamma-glutamyl transferase (AFGGT) levels in cases with non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder compared with the gestational age–specific AFGGT reference range
 

Table 3. Reported efficacies of amniotic fluid enzymes for the prediction of biliary atresia in cases of non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder
 
Discussion
Biliary atresia is a rare congenital anomaly, with a prevalence of 1 in 15 000 to 20 000 live births among Caucasian populations.12 However, BA is more common in East Asians; the prevalence is 1 in 5000 to 7000 among Chinese populations.13 14 Untreated BA is a progressive and devastating disease that can cause cirrhosis and death by 2 years of age.14 This outcome can be prevented by early intervention via palliative Kasai hepatoportoenterostomy, which is essential for re-establishing biliary drainage. If biliary drainage cannot be re-established, liver transplantation is necessary. Indeed, BA is the most common indication for liver transplantation in children, contributing to 75% of transplantations in children before 2 years of age.12 It is therefore imperative to diagnose BA early, preferably during the prenatal period. Nevertheless, prenatal diagnosis of BA is challenging because ultrasound cannot directly examine the patency of fetal bile ducts. When NVFGB is associated with a hepatic hilar cyst or heterotaxy, it is highly suggestive of BA.15 Non-visualisation of the fetal gallbladder with a hepatic hilar cyst is an indicator of cystic BA, a rare subtype representing 5% to 10% of BA cases16; therefore, this prenatal combination is uncommon. Heterotaxy is another rare condition with a prevalence of 1 in 10 000 live births,17 and concurrent BA is present in only 10.4% of left atrial isomerism cases18; therefore, this prenatal combination is even less common. Consequently, NVFGB may be the only prenatal sign indicating the possibility of BA. However, in cases of isolated NVFGB, it is difficult to differentiate between BA and gallbladder agenesis. The discovery of the association between low AFGGT levels and fetal BA has led to interest regarding the role of AFGGT in the management of NVFGB.
 
Validation and analytical performance
To our knowledge, this study is the first to validate the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine–standardised GGCNA enzymatic colorimetric assay on the Cobas c502 analyser, a common locally available plasma and serum analyser, for use with AF. We have demonstrated that accurate and precise measurements of GGT can be achieved with AF samples, enabling adoption in clinical settings. We have also established that the analytical measurement range is 10 to 1200 U/L. This is particularly important for an AFGGT assay because AFGGT levels in euploid pregnancies can vary across multiple orders of magnitude, whereas plasma GGT levels in healthy individuals usually remain below 100 U/L. This verification of the lower limit of quantification and linearity range improves confidence in our measurements. Furthermore, we have excluded potential interference, particularly from haemoglobin, because AF samples may sometimes contain maternal blood. We were initially concerned about GGT stability because some samples had been stored for several years; however, consistent with the World Health Organization report that GGT is stable for years in frozen serum and plasma samples,19 we found that AF stored frozen in plain bottles without additives at -20℃ or -80℃ remained stable for at least 6 months (online supplementary Appendix 1). This finding indicates that supernatants can be stored and subsequently retrieved for GGT assays, an important consideration if amniocentesis is performed in the early second trimester but an indication for AFGGT testing is identified during a mid-trimester morphology scan.
 
Gestational age–specific reference range
We have established a reference range for AFGGT levels at 16+0 to 22+6 weeks of gestation using a large local reference population of 518 samples (all Asian, 97% Chinese); this reference population is the largest compared with similar previous publications. The presence of an adequate sample size for each week of gestation allowed us to establish a reference range for each gestational age, thus overcoming the aforementioned limitations regarding clinical use of the two previous reference ranges.6 7 With respect to the two previous reference ranges, the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles in our study are similar to those reported by Bardin et al7 but higher at most gestational ages than those reported by Burc et al.6 The larger sample size in our study permitted the calculation of the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, such that a 95% central reference range could be established; this allows greater flexibility in selecting cut-off values for clinical application.
 
It has been reported that AFGGT levels are increased in oesophageal atresia and duodenal atresia, whereas they are decreased in anal atresia without fistula.20 21 Although duodenal atresia can easily be diagnosed prenatally by detection of the double bubble sign, this sign usually appears after 24 weeks of gestation.22 Prenatal diagnosis of oesophageal atresia relies on the indirect sign of non-visualisation of the stomach bubble and polyhydramnios; the sensitivities of these ultrasound findings range from 8.9% to 42%.20 Additionally, prenatal detection of anal atresia without fistula depends on the absence of the perianal muscular complex, but the anal sphincter does not fully mature until after 28 weeks of gestation.23 Further research regarding the use of AFGGT for early detection of these congenital gastrointestinal tract obstructions is valuable, and the availability of a local gestational age–specific reference range is crucial for supporting such research.
 
Performance evaluation
In the present study, the NPV and PPV of AFGGT level <2.5th percentile for identifying fetal BA in NVFGB were 100% and 25%, respectively (Table 3). Bardin et al9 assessed the efficacy of low AFGGT levels in predicting BA among cases of NVFGB between 17 and 22 weeks of gestation. Of the 26 cases with AFGGT level ≥5th percentile, none had BA; of the four cases with AFGGT level <5th percentile, three had BA. The corresponding NPV and PPV were 100% and 75%, respectively. The PPV in their study may have been higher because amniocentesis was performed before 22 weeks of gestation in all cases.9 In our cohort, after exclusion of the two cases in which amniocentesis was performed after 22 weeks of gestation, the PPV only marginally improved to 33.3%. Our figures are more consistent with those of Dreux et al,8 who analysed the efficacy of AFEs for predicting BA in NVFGB before and after 22 weeks of gestation. In that study, abnormal AFE was defined as GGT and/or intestinal alkaline phosphatase level <0.5 multiples of the median.8 Before 22 weeks of gestation, there were three cases of BA among seven cases with abnormal AFE and no cases of BA among 16 cases with normal AFE. The corresponding NPV and PPV were 100% and 43%, respectively. However, after 22 weeks of gestation, there was only one case of BA among six cases with abnormal AFE and four cases of BA among 56 cases with normal AFE. The corresponding NPV and PPV were 93% and 17%, respectively (Table 3). These findings confirmed the expected decrease in AFE efficacy for predicting BA after 22 weeks of gestation. By that gestational age, the passage of GGT from the intestine into the AF is impeded by mature anal sphincter muscles in normal fetuses; thus, the AFGGT level is very low after 22 weeks of gestation, and it is difficult to distinguish between a low level due to BA and a low level related to normal development.5 6 7
 
In our cohort, there were three fetuses without BA who had AFGGT level ≤2.5th percentile; one of these fetuses had an extremely low AFGGT level (Case 4) [Table 2]. In addition to its association with fetal BA, low AFGGT is linked to chromosomal abnormalities, cystic fibrosis, anal atresia without fistula, and polyhydramnios. However, none of the three fetuses had any of these conditions. Although one fetus (Case 2) [Table 2] had a small choledochal cyst which might have impeded biliary drainage and caused a mild decrease in AFGGT, we could not find a potential explanation for the low AFGGT levels in the other two fetuses.
 
Limitations
Limitations of our study include its retrospective nature and small cohort size. The incidence of NVFGB is low (0.1%).1 In the largest systematic review concerning the outcomes of NVFGB, encompassing seven studies, the total number of cases was 280; among 170 cases of isolated NVFGB, only six (3.5%) had BA.2 In Hong Kong, the fetal gallbladder is not routinely assessed in low-risk routine anomaly scans, in accordance with the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology guideline.11 24 Among the 32 cases of NVFGB in our cohort, one (3.1%) had BA; this incidence is comparable to the findings in the aforementioned review. However, only 18 cases had an AF sample available for AFGGT testing; after the exclusion of cases with abnormalities that might affect the AFGGT level, we included nine cases in the analysis. Because there was only one case of BA in our cohort and 11 more were described in the literature (Table 3), clinical application of these research findings requires caution, as well as careful pre- and post-test counselling.
 
In addition to the one case of BA in this cohort, two additional cases of BA were not included in this study because prenatal ultrasound scans did not indicate NVFGB. The AFGGT levels in all three cases were <30 U/L and <2.5th percentile (27, 28, and 29 U/L at 20+3, 21+5, and 21+6 weeks, respectively), whereas the AFGGT levels in all samples used to establish our reference range were >30 U/L. Thus, an AFGGT level <30 U/L may be a useful absolute cut-off for the prediction of BA. Notably, all three cases of extrahepatic bile duct obstruction reported by Muller et al5 also had an AFGGT level <30 U/L (20 U/L for all three cases [<1st percentile]). Further research with a larger cohort is required to confirm the efficacy of using an AFGGT level <30 U/L as the absolute cut-off for predicting BA in NVFGB.
 
Conclusion
Based on the present findings and published literature, we conclude that AFGGT testing is useful for the exclusion of fetal BA in pregnancies with NVFGB. With a consistent NPV of 100% across all published series, AFGGT level ≥2.5th percentile can provide reassurance for parents that the fetus is unlikely to have BA. However, considering its PPV of 33.3% to 75% before 22 weeks of gestation and 17% to 43% after 22 weeks of gestation, AFGGT level <2.5th percentile cannot be considered diagnostic for BA. Instead, it serves as a warning sign, indicating the need for prompt postnatal investigation of possible BA. Because NVFGB is also associated with chromosomal abnormalities, amniocentesis is recommended; the advantages of detecting underlying chromosomal abnormalities by CMA and excluding BA through AFGGT testing likely outweigh the 0.3% risk of procedure-related miscarriage.25 Follow-up prenatal ultrasound scans to visualise the fetal gallbladder should be arranged. Paediatricians should also be alerted for prompt postnatal assessment to facilitate early detection of BA. Timely performance of the Kasai operation can reduce the need for liver transplantation in childhood and improve the rate of overall survival into adulthood to 90%.26 27
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: YH Ting, DS Sahota, FCK Wong, TYT Cheung.
Acquisition of data: TYT Cheung, SR Subramaniam, FCK Wong, MHM Chan, YH Ting, NKL Wong, SL Lau, X Zhu, WT Lui, EKW Chan, YKY Kwok, KW Choy, TY Leung.
Analysis or interpretation of data: TYT Cheung, DS Sahota, FCK Wong, YH Ting, NKL Wong.
Drafting of the manuscript: YH Ting, TYT Cheung, DS Sahota, NKL Wong, FCK Wong, SR Subramaniam.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: DS Sahota, YH Ting, TYT Cheung, FCK Wong, NKL Wong.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
This research was approved by the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong—New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee, Hong Kong (Ref No.: CRE 2020.060). Informed consent for amniocentesis in the current study and storage and use of excess amniotic fluid in future research was obtained from the patients at the time of amniocentesis.
 
Supplementary material
The supplementary material was provided by the authors and some information may not have been peer reviewed. Accepted supplementary material will be published as submitted by the authors, without any editing or formatting. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by the Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association. The Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content.
 
References
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3. Ting YH, So PL, Cheung KW, Lo TK, Ma TW, Leung TY. Non-visualisation of fetal gallbladder in a Chinese cohort. Hong Kong Med J 2022;28:116-23. Crossref
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5. Muller F, Gauthier F, Laurent J, Schmitt M, Boué J. Amniotic fluid GGT and congenital extrahepatic biliary damage. Lancet 1991;337:232-3. Crossref
6. Burc L, Guibourdenche J, Luton D, et al. Establishment of reference values of five amniotic fluid enzymes. Analytical performances of the Hitachi 911. Application to complicated pregnancies. Clin Biochem 2001;34:317-22. Crossref
7. Bardin R, Danon D, Tor R, Mashiach R, Vardimon D, Meizner I. Reference values for gamma-glutamyl-transferase in amniotic fluid in normal pregnancies. Prenat Diagn 2009;29:703-6. Crossref
8. Dreux S, Boughanim M, Lepinard C, et al. Relationship of non-visualization of the fetal gallbladder and amniotic fluid digestive enzymes analysis to outcome. Prenat Diagn 2012;32:423-6. Crossref
9. Bardin R, Ashwal E, Davidov B, Danon D, Shohat M, Meizner I. Nonvisualization of the fetal gallbladder: can levels of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase in amniotic fluid predict fetal prognosis? Fetal Diagn Ther 2016;39:50-5. Crossref
10. Stewart SH, Connors GJ, Hutson A. Ethnicity and gamma-glutamyltransferase in men and women with alcohol use disorders. Alcohol Alcohol 2007;42:24-7. Crossref
11. Salomon LJ, Alfirevic Z, Berghella V, et al. Practice guidelines for performance of the routine mid-trimester fetal ultrasound scan. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2011;37:116-26. Crossref
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13. Hsiao CH, Chang MH, Chen HL, et al. Universal screening for biliary atresia using an infant stool color card in Taiwan. Hepatology 2008;47:1233-40. Crossref
14. Zhan J, Chen Y, Wong KK. How to evaluate diagnosis and management of biliary atresia in the era of liver transplantation in China. World J Paediatr Surg 2018;1:e000002. Crossref
15. Chalouhi GE, Muller F, Dreux S, Ville Y, Chardot C. Prenatal non-visualization of fetal gallbladder: beware of biliary atresia! Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2011;38:237-8. Crossref
16. Rahamtalla D, Al Rawahi Y, Jawa ZM, Wali Y. Cystic biliary atresia in a neonate with antenatally detected abdominal cyst. BMJ Case Rep 2022;15:e246081. Crossref
17. Lin AE, Ticho BS, Houde K, Westgate MN, Holmes LB. Heterotaxy: associated conditions and hospital-based prevalence in newborns. Genet Med 2000;2:157-72. Crossref
18. Gottschalk I, Stressig R, Ritgen J, et al. Extracardiac anomalies in prenatally diagnosed heterotaxy syndrome. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2016;47:443-9. Crossref
19. Ehret W. Use of Anticoagulants in Diagnostic Laboratory Investigations. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999.
20. Czerkiewicz I, Dreux S, Beckmezian A, et al. Biochemical amniotic fluid pattern for prenatal diagnosis of esophageal atresia. Pediatr Res 2011;70:199-202. Crossref
21. Muller C, Czerkiewicz I, Guimiot F, et al. Specific biochemical amniotic fluid pattern of fetal isolated esophageal atresia. Pediatr Res 2013;74:601-5. Crossref
22. The Fetal Medicine Foundation. Duodenal atresia. Available from: https://fetalmedicine.org/education/fetal-abnormalities/gastrointestinal-tract/duodenal-atresia. Accessed 19 Jan 2023.
23. Ochoa JH, Chiesa M, Vildoza RP, Wong AE, Sepulveda W. Evaluation of the perianal muscular complex in the prenatal diagnosis of anorectal atresia in a high-risk population. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2012;39:521-7. Crossref
24. Chen M, Leung TY, Sahota DS, et al. Ultrasound screening for fetal structural abnormalities performed by trained midwives in the second trimester in a low-risk population—an appraisal. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 2009;88:713-9. Crossref
25. Salomon LJ, Sotiriadis A, Wulff CB, Odibo A, Akolekar R. Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2019;54:442-51. Crossref
26. Serinet MO, Wildhaber BE, Broué P, et al. Impact of age at Kasai operation on its results in late childhood and adolescence: a rational basis for biliary atresia screening. Pediatrics 2009;123:1280-6. Crossref
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Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Jun;30(3):209–17 | Epub 21 May 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong
Alison WL Wan, MSc; Kevin KH Chung, PhD; JB Li, MEd, PhD; Derwin KC Chan, MSc, PhD
Department of Early Childhood Education, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Dr Derwin KC Chan (derwin@eduhk.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: This study aimed to develop the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong for evaluating the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable family home food environments (FHFEs) among pre-school children in Hong Kong.
 
Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 538 parent-child dyads from eight kindergartens in Hong Kong were recruited. Parents or guardians completed a questionnaire comprising Report Card items. The Report Card included two indicators of Children’s Eating Behaviours (ie, Children’s Dietary Patterns and Children’s Mealtime Behaviours) and three indicators of FHFEs (ie, Parental Food Choices and Preparation, Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods, and Family Mealtime Environments). Each indicator and its specific items were assigned a letter grade representing the percentage of participants achieving the predefined benchmarks. The grades were defined as A (≥80%, Excellent); B (60%-79%, Good); C (40%-59%, Fair); D (20%-39%, Poor); and F (<20%, Very poor). Plus (+) and minus (-) signs were used to indicate the upper or lower 5% of each grade.
 
Results: Overall, Children’s Eating Behaviours were classified as Fair (average grade of ‘C’), whereas FHFEs were classified as Good (average grade of ‘B’). The sub-grades ranged from ‘C’ to ‘A-’, as follows: Children’s Dietary Patterns, ‘C+’; Children’s Mealtime Behaviours, ‘C’; Parental Food Choices and Preparation, ‘C+’; Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods, ‘B’; and Family Mealtime Environments, ‘A-’.
 
Conclusion: The findings highlight areas for improvement in healthy eating among children. The Healthy Eating Report Card could offer novel insights into intervention tools that promote healthy eating.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • Eating behaviours among pre-school children in Hong Kong were classified as Fair (average grade of ‘C’).
  • Among those children, family home food environments (FHFEs) were classified as Good (average grade of ‘B’).
  • There is considerable potential for improvement in children’s dietary patterns, children’s mealtime behaviours, and parental food choices and preparation.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • The Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children can be considered a useful tool for evaluating the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among pre-school children.
  • The grades provided by the Report Card offer valuable guidance concerning how healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among pre-school children could be promoted at the family, school, and community levels.
 
 
Introduction
Unhealthy dietary patterns, generally characterised by low dietary diversity, skipping breakfast, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, and frequent consumption of energy-dense/nutrient-poor foods and sugar-sweetened beverages, are common among children worldwide.1 2 It is particularly important for young children to adopt healthy dietary patterns because eating habits and food preferences in childhood can influence dietary patterns in adulthood.3 Similar to children in other regions, Hong Kong children have a high prevalence of unhealthy dietary patterns.4 A cross-sectional survey evaluating infant and young child feeding practices in Hong Kong identified numerous dietary problems, including dietary imbalance (eg, high protein but low fibre intake), overdependence on the use of formula milk, inadequate intake of vegetables and fruits, and unhealthy snacking and sugary beverage habits.5 A previous study revealed a need for dietary improvement among Hong Kong pre-school children.6 Key recommendations included a balanced diet, better nutritional adequacy, and greater independence during mealtimes (ie, self-feeding).6 Indeed, inappropriate behaviours during mealtimes, such as lack of self-feeding, food refusal, picky eating, and prolonged meals, are common in young children.7 8 Children with inappropriate mealtime behaviours may be susceptible to insufficient nutrient and/or energy intake.9 However, there is limited information available regarding the mealtime behaviours of typically developing pre-school children in Hong Kong.
 
Family home food environments (FHFEs), ie, parental food choices and preparation, avoidance of unhealthy foods, and family mealtime environments, have strong associations with children’s dietary habits and body weight.10 11 12 Parental use of nutrition labels to make healthier food choices has been linked to a lower probability of overweight or obesity in their children.13 Similarly, children with limited access to unhealthy foods are reportedly more likely to maintain a normal body weight.14 A review focusing on the effects of family and social environment on children’s dietary patterns found that a structured mealtime environment—namely, regular meals with family members and screen-free mealtimes—was associated with healthy food consumption patterns in children.15 In summary, children’s mealtime behaviours and FHFEs are important for healthy eating among young children. Thus far, no studies have provided an overview of eating behaviours and FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong.
 
The use of a report card at the country-/region-level can provide a valuable overview of the prevalence of health behaviours through a conventional letter grading system (ranging from A+ to F).16 This framework has been used to evaluate various health-related behaviours (eg, physical activity,17 18 19 sedentary behaviour,17 18 19 smoking behaviour,20 and dietary patterns20 21 22) in children and youth. The findings of such report cards offer insights concerning the extent to which health behaviours are adopted in specific communities and provide targeted recommendations for health behaviours at the individual or public level.16 23 Moreover, the publication of these report cards can facilitate health promotion awareness and catalyse policy changes that motivate individuals to commit to health behaviours.16 19 24 Thus far, only one published report card (the Healthy Active Kids South Africa [HAKSA] Report Card) has revealed dietary patterns among children and youth.21 However, the HAKSA Report Card only covered the intake of fruits, vegetables, and unhealthy snacks; other essential aspects of healthy eating (eg, daily breakfast consumption, dietary variety, mealtime behaviours, and FHFEs) were not considered. Additionally, because the evidence underlying the grading criteria for various aspects of healthy eating was not explicitly stated, the findings of the HAKSA Report Card might not provide useful benchmarks concerning how well individuals adhere to healthy eating standards or recommendations adopted by health authorities. Therefore, we aimed to address the aforementioned research gaps through a cross-sectional study that developed the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong, using a grading scale and evidence-based benchmarks to assess the current prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong.
 
Our Report Card assesses various indicators of Children’s Eating Behaviours (ie, Children’s Dietary Patterns and Children’s Mealtime Behaviours) and FHFEs (ie, Parental Food Choices and Preparation, Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods, and Family Mealtime Environments). Each indicator and its specific items are assigned letter grades based on predefined benchmarks, revealing how well pre-school children in Hong Kong meet the recommendations and standards established by the government and published literature concerning pre-school children’s healthy eating behaviours and FHFEs (Tables 125 26 27 28 29 30 31 and 223). The findings may enhance the understanding of eating behaviours and FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong. Additionally, the Healthy Eating Report Card established in our study will be useful for future studies examining healthy eating among young children in other countries or regions.
 
Methods
Participants
We recruited 538 Hong Kong parent-child dyads from eight local kindergartens in three main regions of Hong Kong (29.55% of children from the New Territories, 62.64% of children from Kowloon, and 7.81% of children from Hong Kong Island). The children were aged between 2 and 6 years with a mean age of 4.10 years (standard deviation=0.92); 49.63% of the children were boys. Of the children, 33.77%, 29.46%, and 36.77% were in grades K1, K2, and K3, respectively. Respondents were mainly mothers (85.63%), followed by fathers (13.25%) and other legal guardians (1.12%). The mean respondent age was 36.62 years (standard deviation=5.84).
 
Procedures
This cross-sectional study examined the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among Hong Kong pre-school children in October 2021. We sent invitation letters to 89 randomly selected local kindergartens across 18 districts in Hong Kong (excluding international schools and special needs schools). Eight kindergartens agreed to participate in this study and distribute our questionnaire to eligible parents. The inclusion criteria required participants to: (1) be Chinese parents or guardians; (2) have at least one child in grades K1 to K3; and (3) have sufficient Chinese reading ability to complete the questionnaire. Schools and parents were both asked to provide written informed consent. Parents completed a parent-reported questionnaire (comprising the Healthy Eating Report Card items) about their children’s eating behaviours and FHFEs, which typically required 15 minutes to complete. Respondents received a HK$50 supermarket voucher as a token of appreciation for their participation.
 
Report Card questionnaire
The design of our Healthy Eating Report Card was based on the conceptual framework established by the Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth, which offers a comprehensive grading framework and benchmarks to evaluate health behaviours.16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 The Global Matrix 3.0 Physical Activity Report Card for Children and Youth has been used in 49 countries to evaluate the prevalence of physical activity behaviours among children and youth.23 Using a similar assessment framework, our Healthy Eating Report Card evaluated the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among Hong Kong pre-school children. The Healthy Eating Report Card Questionnaire consisted of 21 items which were developed based on the healthy eating guidelines and recommendations of the Department of Health of Hong Kong.25 26 The items were aligned with the five indicators of our Report Card, including two Children’s Eating Behaviours indicators (ie, Children’s Dietary Patterns and Children’s Mealtime Behaviours) and three FHFEs indicators (ie, Parental Food Choices and Preparation, Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods, and Family Mealtime Environments), to determine whether the children adhered to healthy eating behaviours and were involved in healthy FHFEs. Participants responded to questionnaire items using a 5-point Likert scale (ranging from ‘always’ to ‘never’), yes/no questions, open-ended questions, and multiple-choice questions. The questionnaire is provided in online supplementary Appendix 1.
 
Data analysis
Benchmarks for each indicator were established in accordance with recommendations and guidelines for healthy eating behaviours and FHFEs from the Hong Kong SAR Government and published literature.25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Based on the results of the questionnaire, we used a benchmark framework to determine the letter grade for each indicator that reflected the percentage of participants who met the predetermined benchmarks. A sub-grade was also determined for each indicator item. The questionnaire items and criteria of questionnaire answers related to the benchmarks are displayed in online supplementary Appendix 2.25 26 28 29 30 31 The grading system for the Healthy Eating Report Card was derived from the grading rubric of the Global Matrix 3.0 Physical Activity Report Card for Children and Youth, ie, A (≥80%, Excellent); B (60%-79%, Good); C (40%-59%, Fair); D (20%-39%, Poor); and F (<20%, Very poor).23 Plus (+) and minus (-) signs were used to show the upper or lower 5% of each grade.23 The proposed benchmarks and the grading scheme are shown in Tables 125 26 27 28 29 30 31 and 2,23 respectively.
 

Table 1. Indicators and benchmarks in the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong
 

Table 2. Grading system of the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong
 
Due to the percentage calculation, responses to 5-point Likert scale questions in the questionnaire were converted to binary variables; responses of ‘sometimes’, ‘often’ and ‘always’ were categorised as ‘yes’, whereas responses of ‘never’ and ‘rarely’ were categorised as ‘no’.32 All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (Windows version 26.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], United States). Missing values ranged from 0.19% to 2.79% for questionnaire items because of nonresponses to some items. The descriptive statistics revealed valid percentages for each indicator item, along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The arithmetic mean for each indicator was calculated by summing the valid percentage for each item of the indicator, then dividing that value by the number of corresponding items. This arithmetic mean represents the average percentage of participants who met predefined benchmarks for that indicator.
 
Results
The letter grades of our Healthy Eating Report Card are summarised in Table 3. The descriptive statistics of the Report Card are displayed in online supplementary Appendix 3. The average grades of Children’s Eating Behaviours indicators and FHFEs indicators were ‘C’ and ‘B’, respectively, showing that the eating behaviours of Hong Kong pre-school children were classified as Fair, whereas FHFEs were classified as Good (Table 3). On average, nearly half of the pre-school children (52.88%; 95% CI=51.26%-54.50%) adhered to healthy eating behaviours, whereas more than half of the parents (70.87%; 95% CI=69.34%-72.40%) provided their children with favourable FHFEs.
 

Table 3. Letter grades assigned to indicators and their items in the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong
 
Children’s Dietary Patterns
Nearly all children (97.58%) had three regular meals daily. However, only 24.34% of the children ate a variety of foods. Approximately half of the children had adequate vegetable and fruit intakes (50.84% and 58.40%, respectively). Moreover, 55.76% did not have a formula milk-drinking habit. Additionally, around half of the children had low consumption of unhealthy snacks and sugary beverages (52.25% and 58.87%, respectively) [online supplementary Appendix 3]. Overall, Children’s Dietary Patterns was graded ‘C+’ (Fair), signifying that approximately half of the children (55.37%; 95% CI=53.98%-56.75%) adhered to healthy dietary patterns.
 
Children’s Mealtime Behaviours
Fewer than half of the children (43.02%) did not require parental assistance to finish a meal. Only 38.32% of the children could remain seated during mealtimes. Of the children, 49.15% and 67.98% did not exhibit picky eating behaviours and were willing to try new foods, respectively. Nearly half of the children (49.35%) did not exhibit slow-eating behaviours (online supplementary Appendix 3). Children’s Mealtime Behaviours was graded ‘C’ (Fair), showing that approximately half of the children (49.92%; 95% CI=46.28%-55.07%) exhibited desirable mealtime behaviours.
 
Parental Food Choices and Preparation
More than half of the parents (63.69%) used nutrition labels. Similarly, more than half of the parents (70.26%) considered low oil/salt/sugar food options for their children. Approximately half of the parents used low-fat cooking methods and reduced the use of sugar- or salt-containing condiments (53.53% and 43.58%, respectively) [online supplementary Appendix 3]. Parental Food Choices and Preparation was graded ‘C+’ (Fair), revealing that approximately half of the parents (57.88%; 95% CI=55.49%-60.28%) made healthy food choices and prepared healthy meals for their children.
 
Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods
Half of the parents (52.04%) did not reward their children with unhealthy snacks or drinks. A large majority of the parents (90.15%) limited the frequency and quantity of unhealthy foods (online supplementary Appendix 3). Therefore, Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods was graded ‘B’ (Good), signifying that more than half of the parents (71.10%; 95% CI=68.66%-73.53%) controlled their children’s access to unhealthy foods.
 
Family Mealtime Environments
A large majority of the children dined with their parents or family members and ate the same food as other family members (93.47% and 95.50%, respectively). More than half of the parents (61.08%) did not allow their children to use screen devices during mealtimes (online supplementary Appendix 3). Family Mealtime Environments was graded ‘A-’ (Excellent), showing that most children (83.46%; 95% CI=81.63%-85.29%) were involved in structured family mealtime environments.
 
Discussion
This study aimed to develop the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong, which assessed the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong. We established evidence-based benchmarks to guide the process of grading Children’s Eating Behaviours indicators and FHFEs indicators, then utilised letter grades to illustrate how well children adhered to healthy eating behaviours. Children’s Dietary Patterns and Children’s Mealtime Behaviours were graded ‘C+’ and ‘C’, respectively, signifying that eating behaviours in Hong Kong pre-school children were Fair; the average overall grade was ‘C’. Our findings indicate that approximately half of the pre-school children in Hong Kong adhered to healthy eating behaviours. Parental Food Choices and Preparation, Avoidance of Unhealthy Foods, and Family Mealtime Environments were graded ‘C+’, ‘B’, and ‘A-’, respectively, showing that FHFEs were Good; the average overall grade was ‘B’. Our results revealed that more than half of the pre-school children in Hong Kong were involved in a healthy home eating environment. Taken together, these findings enhance the understanding of pre-school children’s eating behaviours and FHFEs in Hong Kong.
 
Comparison of Report Card findings with Hong Kong’s previous data
Our Report Card showed that the eating behaviours of Hong Kong pre-school children were classified as Fair; some unhealthy dietary patterns and undesirable mealtime behaviours were prevalent because nearly half of the children did not meet predefined benchmarks for Children’s Eating Behaviours indicators. Previous research33 concerning the eating habits of Hong Kong pre-school children showed that more than half of the surveyed children (78.8%) had a habit of eating breakfast. Nevertheless, fewer than half of the children achieved the recommended daily intakes of vegetables (19.6%) and fruits (47.3%), respectively.33 Some studies identified a high prevalence of formula milk drinking among Hong Kong pre-school–aged children, such that 77% of 4-year-old children continue to drink formula milk.5 34 Overdependence on formula milk may reduce appetite in children and impede their development of healthy eating habits.35 Lo et al33 found that, on average, children consumed high energy-dense foods (eg, candy/chocolate, sweet crackers, and sugary beverages) more than twice per week; accordingly they suggested that such children should minimise their consumption of these foods. Additionally, an investigation regarding undesirable mealtime behaviours among Hong Kong pre-school children revealed that approximately 70% of the children required >30 minutes to finish a meal; these children often were unwilling to self-feed or finish their meals.6 The present study are consistent with previous research, indicating that there is considerable potential for improvement in eating behaviours among Hong Kong children.
 
Comparison of Report Card findings with international data
As mentioned above, the HAKSA Report Card assessed a few aspects of the dietary patterns of South African children and youth aged 3 to 8 years in 2018. Although using a grading rubric similar to our Report Card, the HAKSA Report Card only involved two indicators, namely Fruit and Vegetable Intake (graded ‘D’) and Snacking, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, Dietary Sodium, and Fast Food Intake (graded ‘F’).21 Our Report Card may provide better coverage of healthy dietary patterns because it included assessments of regular daily meals, food variety, and formula milk-drinking habits, with a particular focus on pre-school children aged 2 to 6 years. Despite the discrepancies between studies, the healthy dietary patterns observed in our Report Card were more favourable than patterns observed in the HAKSA Report Card.21 This difference also implies that standards for healthy eating behaviours among children differ between South Africa and Hong Kong. Future studies should develop a cross-ountry/region–level Report Card and establish a global benchmark to comprehensively analyse global variations in healthy eating, thereby raising global awareness and stimulating global discussion regarding the promotion of healthy eating.
 
Novel findings on family home food environments
Very little is known about FHFEs of children in Hong Kong; therefore, the present study provides initial information concerning parental food choices and preparation, avoidance of unhealthy foods, and family mealtime environments among Hong Kong pre-school children. Based on our findings, the FHFEs of the pre-school children in Hong Kong were classified as Good. This result suggests that parents in Hong Kong attempt to promote healthy diets by limiting their children’s consumption of unhealthy foods. A previous study revealed that Hong Kong parents tended to adopt the ‘control over eating’ approach to feed their children, whereby parents primarily determine the amounts of food that children should eat, including unhealthy snacks.33 Moreover, parents often used food to reward or comfort children.36 The indicator of Family Mealtime Environments in our Report Card showed that most pre-school children had a structured family mealtime environment where they dined with their family and shared the same food with their family members. This finding may be attributed to the Chinese cultural emphasis on shared meals with family members.37 Thus, the results of the present study are consistent with previous research findings.
 
However, this high grade for Family Mealtime Environments may have increased the average grade for FHFEs indicators. Indeed, parents’ food choices, purchases, and preparation directly influence children’s home food environment and food consumption.38 When we specifically focused on the Parental Food Choices and Preparation indicator, the grade decreased to Fair (letter grade of ‘C+’), signifying that only half of the parents complied with healthy eating practices for their children, such as the use of nutrition labels and adoption of healthy cooking methods. Thus, it is important to promote healthy eating at home, which will facilitate healthy eating behaviours among children. A pilot FHFE intervention of the Healthy Home Offerings via the Mealtime Environment Plus programme, which provided parents and children with nutrition education and meal preparation training and activities, successfully promoted a structured mealtime environment at home and helped to improve dietary intake patterns.39 40 Accordingly, future studies might utilise nutrition education interventions to improve the FHFEs of pre-school children in Hong Kong.
 
Strengths and limitations
This study had some strengths. In particular, we collected primary data to enhance the understanding of eating behaviours and FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong. Moreover, to our knowledge, this is the first use of a report card framework to comprehensively evaluate the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours among pre-school children.41 The Report Card can serve as an effective awareness-raising tool that provides novel insights concerning the promotion of healthy eating behaviours, as well as recommendations for healthy eating policies and healthy food environments.23
 
However, this study also had several limitations. First, its cross-sectional design precluded the identification of changes in children’s eating behaviours and FHFEs over time. Future studies could perform longitudinal measurements of variables in the Report Card to reveal changes or stability in healthy eating behaviours among young children; such measurements could also determine whether Report Card scores are predictive of health outcomes in children. An individual-level Healthy Eating Report Card should be developed in future studies to examine the effectiveness of the Report Card on parental intentions towards healthy eating, as well as children’s healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs. Second, although the items of the Healthy Eating Report Card Questionnaire were developed based on the guidelines and recommendations of the Hong Kong SAR Government,25 26 the development of the questionnaire did not include evaluations of its content validity and psychometric properties. Future studies should examine the psychometric properties and other validity aspects of the Report Card questionnaire (eg, factorial validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity).42 Third, the study relied on parent-reported questionnaires of children’s eating behaviours and FHFEs, which may be susceptible to response biases, social desirability bias, and general response tendencies.43 44 Validation studies comparing parent-reported questionnaires with more objective measures of children’s food intake and observational assessments of mealtime behaviours could be conducted in the future. Finally, the current Report Card does not reflect several components of children’s eating behaviours (eg, the frequency of dining out and the variety of vegetable and fruit consumption) and FHFEs (eg, parental feeding practices and accessibility of healthy food at home). Future studies should investigate whether these components could be included within the Healthy Eating Report Card to provide a more holistic assessment of healthy eating among children.
 
Conclusion
This study developed the Healthy Eating Report Card for Pre-school Children in Hong Kong to reflect the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs among pre-school children in Hong Kong. The Report Card revealed that Children’s Eating Behaviours were classified as Fair (average grade of ‘C’), whereas FHFEs were classified as Good (average grade of ‘B’). There is considerable potential for improvement in children’s eating behaviours (ie, healthy dietary patterns and appropriate mealtime behaviours) and FHFEs (particularly concerning parental healthy food choices and preparation). We believe that the Report Card can serve as a useful tool for evaluating the prevalence of healthy eating behaviours and favourable FHFEs in young children; it could offer novel insights into strategies for promotion of healthy eating in pre-school setting.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: All authors.
Acquisition of data: AWL Wan, DKC Chan.
Analysis or interpretation of data: AWL Wan, DKC Chan.
Drafting of the manuscript: AWL Wan, DKC Chan.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
All authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Acknowledgement
The authors thank Ms Kiko KH Leung, Ms Roni MY Chiu, and Ms Tracy CW Tang from the Department of Early Childhood Education of The Education University of Hong Kong for their assistance in preparing study materials and collecting data. The authors also thank the eight participating kindergartens for aiding in the distribution and collection of questionnaires from parents.
 
Funding/support
This research was funded by the Research Impact Cluster Fund of the Department of Early Childhood Education, Faculty of Education and Human Development, The Education University of Hong Kong, through an award to the corresponding author. The funder had no role in study design, data collection/analysis/interpretation or manuscript preparation.
 
Ethics approval
The study protocol of this research was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of The Education University of Hong Kong (Ref No.: 2020-2021-0420). All schools and parents provided written informed consent for participation in this research and have also consented to the publication of its findings.
 
Supplementary material
The supplementary material was provided by the authors and may include some information that was not peer reviewed. Accepted supplementary material will be published as submitted by the authors, without any editing or formatting. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by the Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association. The Hong Kong Academy of Medicine and the Hong Kong Medical Association disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content.
 
References
1. World Health Organization. Healthy diet. 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/healthy-diet. Accessed 9 Jul 2022.
2. Kupka R, Siekmans K, Beal T. The diets of children: overview of available data for children and adolescents. Glob Food Sec 2020;27:100442. Crossref
3. Movassagh EZ, Baxter-Jones AD, Kontulainen S, Whiting SJ, Vatanparast H. Tracking dietary patterns over 20 years from childhood through adolescence into young adulthood: the Saskatchewan Pediatric Bone Mineral Accrual Study. Nutrients 2017;9:990.Crossref
4. Department of Health. Hong Kong SAR Government. Diet, physical activity and health: Hong Kong situation. 2010. Available from: https://www.change4health.gov.hk/filemanager/common/image/strategic_framework/action_plan/action_plan_2_e.pdf. Accessed 5 Jul 2022.
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Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys

Hong Kong Med J 2024 Jun;30(3):202–8 | Epub 29 May 2024
© Hong Kong Academy of Medicine. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
 
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys
Brian YC Sung, MB, BS1; Eric HM Tang, BSc2; Laura Bedford, BSc2; Carlos KH Wong, MPhil, PhD2,3; Emily TY Tse, MB, BS, FHKAM (Family Medicine)2; Esther YT Yu, MB, BS, FHKAM (Family Medicine)2; Bernard MY Cheung, MB, BChir, PhD1; Cindy LK Lam, MB, BS, MD2
1 Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
3 Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
Corresponding author: Prof Bernard MY Cheung (mycheung@hku.hk)
 
 Full paper in PDF
 
Abstract
Introduction: The Framingham risk model estimates a person’s 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005.
 
Methods: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex- and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests.
 
Results: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001).
 
Conclusion: From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk.
 
 
New knowledge added by this study
  • The stagnation in 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between 2003 and 2015 suggests that despite improvements in treatment, more effective prevention strategies (eg, improvements in diet and physical activity levels) are needed.
  • The effect of the decreasing number of current smokers was not strongly reflected in the change in 10-year CVD risk. This may be due to an increased prevalence of diabetes and an increased proportion of participants receiving antihypertensive medications.
Implications for clinical practice or policy
  • The findings suggest that the use of lipid-lowering drugs and antihypertensive medications does not effectively translate into overall cardiovascular risk reduction in the Hong Kong population, unless these treatments are simultaneously paired with prevention strategies targeting CVD risk factors.
 
 
Introduction
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes a spectrum of diseases that affect the heart and blood vessels. Worldwide, CVD is the leading cause of death as well as a major cause of premature death and chronic disability in numerous regions.1 In 2017, CVD was responsible for an estimated 17.8 million deaths, representing 31% of all global deaths.2 Hypertension, smoking status, hyperlipidaemia, and diabetes mellitus are prominent risk factors for CVD.3 The global prevalence of CVD risk factors is increasing. Currently, an estimated 15% of the world’s population (1.13 billion people) has hypertension, and the prevalence is expected to increase to 29% by 2025.4 5 Additionally, the global prevalence of diabetes increased from 211 million in 1990 to 476 million in 2017, representing a 129.7% increase in nearly three decades.6 The prevalences of CVD and its risk factors are expected to continue to increase in the near future due to industrialisation and population ageing. Fortunately, the World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that premature CVD is preventable in >75% of cases, and risk factor amelioration can help reduce the burden caused by CVD.7
 
The risk of CVD over the next 10 years for an individual can be estimated using prediction models. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction is important at the individual and population levels. At the individual level, CVD risk prediction allows primary care medical professionals to identify high-risk patients. Risk factors for CVD, such as hypertension, can be treated accordingly to reduce the patient’s future risk of CVD. At the population level, CVD risk trends allow health policy planners to make evidence-based decisions and review current public health strategies used in CVD prevention.8
 
Changes in CVD risk can serve as a reference to indicate changes in public health status within a population. Two studies have evaluated changes in the 10-year CVD risk in the United States (US) population. In a study by Ajani and Ford,9 risk models adopted by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III were utilised to estimate coronary heart disease risk, rather than the more precise Framingham formulae for estimation of overall CVD risk. Notably, their analysis lacked age stratification. On the other hand, Lopez-Jimenez et al10 evaluated the changes in CVD risk between 1976 and 2004. To our knowledge, no previous study has evaluated the change in 10-year CVD risk in an Asian population, and insights are needed regarding the cardiovascular health status of the population in a more recent time period.
 
In this study, we aimed to calculate and compare the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks predicted by the Framingham model in a Hong Kong general population by using the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 in combination with two previous surveys conducted in 2003 to 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005.
 
Methods
Study design and sampling
The data in this study were sourced from PHS 2003/200411 and PHS 2014/15.12 Population Health Surveys are territory-wide cross-sectional surveys conducted by the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government. These surveys target the land-based non-institutional population of individuals aged ≥15 years in Hong Kong, excluding foreign domestic helpers and visitors. Systematic replicate sampling was adopted to select living quarters that were representative of the Hong Kong general population. All domestic households in the selected living quarters and household members in the target population were individually surveyed. Written consent was obtained from individuals who agreed to participate in a PHS. Participants were invited to complete a face-to-face interview, where they provided information about their socio-demographic characteristics, disease status, and daily lifestyle habits. After the interview, consenting participants aged 15 to 84 years were randomly selected to undergo a health examination that included physical measurements and biochemical testing.12 Health examinations for participants of PHS 2003/2004 were conducted as part of the HHS 2004/2005.
 
The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist was followed for preparing this manuscript.
 
Predicted risk of cardiovascular disease over the next 10 years
The main outcome of this study was the predicted risk of CVD over the next 10 years among people aged 30 to 74 years. Thus far, no specific prediction models have been developed for the Hong Kong population. In this study, we adopted the prediction model for primary care developed by the Framingham Heart Study Cohort in the general adult population aged 30 to 74 years.13 The Framingham CVD risk model was validated and can be applied to the Chinese population, but requires recalibration in men.14 A CVD event was defined as a composite of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular events, peripheral artery disease, and heart failure in the Framingham model. The predicted CVD risk over the next 10 years was calculated for each participant using the following information: age, total cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, current smoking status, and diabetes status.
 
Statistical analysis
A complete-case analysis approach was utilised in this study. Descriptive statistics were used to present the characteristics of included individuals. Sex- and age-specific predicted CVD risks in 2003-2005 and 2014-2015 were calculated to summarise the change in risk according to sex and age-group. Significant differences in the above factors between the two PHSs were tested by independent t test or Chi squared test, as appropriate.
 
To summarise results at the population level, population weighting established by the Department of Health was applied according to age-group and sex for participants in each PHS. To compare results at the population level, age-standardised predicted CVD risk was calculated using WHO 2000-2025 world standard population data15 and the US population census data in 2000.16
 
All statistical analyses were performed with SPSS software (Windows version 26.0; IBM Corp, Armonk [NY], US). All significance tests were two-tailed, and P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.
 
Results
In total, 1662 and 818 participants were included in the PHS 2014/15 cohort and the PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 cohort, respectively. These individuals represented populations of 4 445 868 and 3 495 074, respectively. Table 1 shows the baseline characteristics of the PHS and HHS cohorts according to Framingham predictors. The mean age was similar in both cohorts (2003-2005: 48.6 years vs 2014-2015: 50.8 years) and the proportions of male and female participants were similar (female participants in 2003-2005: 54.1% vs 2014-2015: 53.0%).
 

Table 1. Summary statistics for risk factors among the participants in the health surveys
 
Predicted CVD risk increases with age and is higher in men (Table 2). In PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005, the mean CVD risk increased with age in both sexes, from 1.6% among women aged 30-44 years to 17.8% among women aged 65-74 years, and from 5.1% among men aged 30-44 years to 33.4% among men aged 65-74 years. Between the two surveys, there was no significant difference in overall 10-year CVD risk (2003-2005: 10.2% vs 2014-2015: 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to WHO world standard population data, the age-standardised predicted CVD risks in the 2003-2005 cohort and the 2014-2015 cohort were 9.4% and 8.8%, respectively (Table 3). The small decrease in predicted CVD risk may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (30.5% vs 24.0%; P<0.001) [Table 1].
 

Table 2. Mean weighted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham model among participants aged 30 to 74 years in the health surveys according to age-group and sex
 

Table 3. Age-standardised estimates of cardiovascular disease risk for the participants of the health surveys
 
The risk of cardiovascular events over the next 10 years was classified as low (CVD risk <10%), medium (CVD risk ≥10% and <20%), and high (CVD risk ≥20%); the distributions of risk groups are presented in Table 4. Among participants aged 30 to 74 years, the risk group distributions were similar in both cohorts. When analysed according to sex, 29.1% of men and 5.1% of women were classified as high-risk in PHS 2014/15, whereas 28.2% of men and 6.4% of women were classified as high-risk in PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005. When analysed according to age-group, more participants aged 65 to 74 years were classified as high-risk in PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028).
 

Table 4. Ten-year cardiovascular disease risk level among non-institutionalised individuals aged 30 to 74 years according to age-group based on the Framingham risk model
 
Discussion
Using representative samples from the Hong Kong PHS and HHS, we found that the 10-year CVD risk increases with age and is consistently higher in men (men: 15.5% vs women: 6.2%; P<0.001, in PHS 2014/15) [Table 2]. This trend is consistent with previous reports; for example, an analysis of NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) III data showed that men have a significantly higher CVD risk (11.8% in men vs 5.1% in women) and that CVD risk is higher in older age-groups (16.2% for participants aged 60-74 years vs 11.2% for participants aged 50-59 years).10 Thus, risk management for older adults may represent a challenge to the current health infrastructure. The burden of CVD is directly associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients, and it translates to substantial healthcare costs. In Hong Kong, the number of people aged ≥65 years is predicted to reach 2.58 million (35.9% of the population) by 2064.17 Thus, there is a critical need to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the aetiologies associated with CVD in older adults.
 
The results have extensive public health implications. Although age-standardised rates of death from CVD in Hong Kong greatly decreased from 93.4 per 100 000 standard population in 2001 to 56.0 per 100 000 standard population in 2017,18 there was no significant difference in overall 10-year CVD risk between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015 (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29) [Table 2]. After age standardisation according to WHO world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015 [Table 3]. A study of NHANES data revealed a similar trend, consisting of a small decrease in CVD risk from 1988 to 2004 (7.9% to 7.4%; P<0.001).10 The stagnation in 10-year CVD risk between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015 suggests that despite improvements in treatment, more effective prevention strategies (eg, improvements in diet and physical activity levels) are needed.19 Primary care intervention to manage modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes, can complement population-based policies. Efforts to ensure access to appropriate healthcare and affordable medications will help control abnormal risk factor levels.20 Furthermore, despite the importance of targeting individual risk factors to reduce prevalence, the long-term objective should be reduced overall risk of CVD. This objective requires a holistic approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors.
 
Our results highlight the need for overall risk assessment, in addition to targeted efforts focused on specific CVD risk factors. During the past decade, numerous public health initiatives (eg, smoking cessation campaigns) have been implemented to reduce the prevalence of established risk factors for CVD. It is reasonable to expect that CVD risk would decrease over time in conjunction with the decreased prevalences of various risk factors, such as the declining number of current smokers. Surprisingly, these changes were not strongly reflected in the change in 10-year CVD risk. One explanation is that decreases in the prevalence of some risk factors are offset by increases in others. For example, population ageing in Hong Kong may shift more adults into the high-risk group. However, because the Framingham model was limited to individuals aged 30 to 74 years, the change in mean age between the two surveys is inconsequential. Other possible changes in risk factors include increases in the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, as reflected by the increased proportion of participants receiving antihypertensive medications (Table 1). Although CVD mortality has considerably decreased, it is concerning that CVD risk has not substantially diminished over the past decade. This lack of improvement in CVD risk may lead to an increasing community burden of CVD in the near future, especially in the context of population ageing.
 
The overall 10-year CVD risk for participants aged 30 to 74 years in 2003-2005 after age adjustment to US census population data in 2000 was 10.7%. During a similar time period (1999-2004), the US population had a 10-year CVD risk of 7.4%.10 When Hong Kong men were stratified according to risk group in 2014-2015, 48.8% were classified as low-risk, 22.1% were classified as medium-risk, and 29.1% were classified as high-risk (Table 4). For comparison, among men in the United Kingdom population during 2012, 46.5% were classified as low-risk, 39.9% were classified as medium-risk, and 13.6% were classified as high-risk using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Framingham risk model.21 In terms of risk distribution, a greater proportion of Hong Kong men were classified as high-risk compared with men in the United Kingdom in the early 2010s. In terms of age-standardised risk, the Hong Kong population had a higher 10-year CVD risk than the US population in 2003.
 
Analysis according to age showed that the proportion of low-risk participants increased from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, particularly in the age-groups of 55-64 and 65-74 years (2003-2005: 28.5% vs 2014-2015: 44.7% for participants aged 55-64 years, and 6.1% vs 15.4% for participants aged 65-74 years) [Table 4]. This increased proportion may be the result of primary care clinicians recognising age as a prominent risk factor for CVD, leading to more aggressive treatment of modifiable risk factors. Furthermore, there were fewer male smokers in 2014-2015 than in 2003-2005 (24.0% vs 30.5%; P<0.001) [Table 1], suggesting that the success of recent anti-smoking campaigns also contributed to this paradigm shift.
 
Contrary to a previous report addressing changes in several CVD risk factors,22 we used the widely validated Framingham risk model to predict the risk of CVD. By measuring the net change in cardiovascular risk, we more comprehensively estimated the impacts of prevention strategies; this is particularly important because some risk factors worsened, some improved, and some remained stable over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the change in 10-year CVD risk in an Asian population. The results reinforce the need for more aggressive community-wide and clinic-based preventions, with an emphasis on increased exercise hours during leisure time, dietary changes that promote higher intake of vegetables and fruits, as well as lower intake of salt and saturated fats, weight maintenance, and smoking cessation. The findings also suggest that the discovery and use of lipid-lowering drugs and antihypertensive medications does not effectively translate into overall risk reduction in an Asian population, unless these treatments are simultaneously paired with prevention strategies targeting CVD risk factors.
 
Strengths and limitations
This study was based on two Hong Kong population health surveys, and thus the sample is highly representative of the general population. Baseline data were collected through laboratory tests and face-to-face interviews, suggesting that these data are highly reliable. The long interval between the two health surveys (2003-2005 to 2014-2015) also provides insights regarding the effectiveness of current CVD prevention strategies. Limitations of the current study involve its use of the Framingham risk prediction model and the PHS and HHS. Similar to other surveys, the PHS and HHS are susceptible to participation bias because the sample data might not provide an accurate representation of the overall population. Many PHS variables are self-reported and may lead to reporting bias. Considering the effort required to complete the long questionnaires, the collected data may be susceptible to non-response bias and recall bias. Furthermore, because the Framingham cohort primarily consisted of Caucasians, the predicted 10-year CVD risk in the Hong Kong population calculated using the Framingham model should be interpreted cautiously. The Framingham risk model was developed for people without a history of CVD; thus, a small proportion of the overall sample lacking a history of CVD might have been included in the study, causing inaccuracies in the results. Additionally, the model may overestimate the 10-year CVD risk for men in Hong Kong,14 and a recalibrated model with greater predictive power may be required. Although several limitations and assumptions may hinder the prediction of CVD risk, these potential sources of bias were present in both surveys. Therefore, the effects of such biases may be less important when comparing the change in predicted 10-year CVD risk between the two time points.
 
Conclusion
During the period from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, the change in predicted 10-year CVD risk was not statistically significant. However, the proportion of low-risk participants within older age-groups was higher in PHS 2014/15 than in PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005. More aggressive CVD prevention strategies and primary care interventions are needed to address CVD risk factors.
 
Author contributions
Concept or design: BMY Cheung, CLK Lam.
Acquisition of data: BYC Sung, EHM Tang, BMY Cheung, CLK Lam.
Analysis or interpretation of data: BYC Sung, EHM Tang.
Drafting of the manuscript: BYC Sung, EHM Tang.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: L Bedford, CKH Wong, ETY Tse, EYT Yu, BMY Cheung, CLK Lam.
 
All authors had full access to the data, contributed to the study, approved the final version for publication, and take responsibility for its accuracy and integrity.
 
Conflicts of interest
As advisers of the journal, CKH Wong and EYT Yu were not involved in the peer review process. Other authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
 
Acknowledgement
The authors thank the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government for granting approval to use the data from Population Health Survey 2003/2004, Heart Health Survey 2004/2005, and Population Health Survey 2014/15 for this research. The authors also thank Dr Weinan Dong and Ms Tingting Wu from the Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care of The University of Hong Kong for their assistance in data interpretation and revising the final draft of the manuscript.
 
Declaration
Part of this study was presented as a poster at the ESC Congress 2021 – The Digital Experience (virtual), 27-30 August 2021, and was published as an abstract (Sung BY, Tang EH, Bedford L, et al. Change in Framingham cardiovascular disease risk between 2003 and 2014 in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey [abstract]. Eur Heart J 2021;42:1).
 
Funding/support
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Ethics approval
The requirement for ethics approval for this research was waived by the Institutional Review Board of The University of Hong Kong/Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster, Hong Kong as this study involved secondary analysis of de-identified governmental data.
 
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