Hong Kong Med J 2023;29(Suppl 3):S27-32
Risk prediction analytics for the Hong Kong Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme: abridged secondary publication
JT Wu1, GM Leung1, WK Leung2
1 School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
2 Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
 
  1. Quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) contain diverse information that can be used to explore the epidemiology of colorectal cancer (CRC).
  2. Using individuals’ historical FIT results, we constructed and fitted a natural history model that had moderate predictive power for advanced colorectal neoplastic diseases but suboptimal predictive power for FIT positivity.
  3. Our fitted natural history model provides an evidence-based analytical platform for future evaluation and optimisation of the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening. The use of a sex-specific threshold for FIT positivity could serve as a first step to modify the current screening algorithm.
  4. The screening database should be linked to screenees’ electronic health records to allow access to data regarding CRC risk factors, thereby enhancing predictive model performance and facilitating evaluations of personalised screening algorithms.
  5. Policymakers should monitor participation and compliance rates, with prompt support for underserved populations.